tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2110144206499071646..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Weekly claims updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10274856152947304652009-11-09T11:16:15.494-08:002009-11-09T11:16:15.494-08:00The initial weekly unemployment claims number is n...The initial weekly unemployment claims number is not impacted by the length of time that people get unemployment benefits. But the longer the period of benefits, generally the slower people are to go out and look for work. As usually happens in recessions, Congress extends unemployment benefits out of compassion for the jobless, but that also serves to delay the recovery.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59085167187314024212009-11-09T00:38:44.832-08:002009-11-09T00:38:44.832-08:00Jobless claimants receive benefits for up to 26 we...Jobless claimants receive benefits for up to 26 weeks... Once this is over, claimants are off the roll for the weekly initial jobless claims. This may explain why the unemployed rate is not moving down and why the initial jobless claims are going down and may not necessarily indicate an employment improvement.EMphase Finance - www.emfin.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04434882047213221154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41197270130399796842009-11-09T00:33:23.608-08:002009-11-09T00:33:23.608-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.EMphase Finance - www.emfin.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04434882047213221154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37728526694928770862009-11-06T12:47:58.887-08:002009-11-06T12:47:58.887-08:00The household survey can indeed be erratic. But so...The household survey can indeed be erratic. But so far both surveys are tracking each other fairly well in aggregate, but not on a month to month basis. <br /><br />Small business has certainly taken a beating, and Obama is not helping matters at all. Being an incurable optimist, however, I think your friend is right. When this country gets back on track we could see some tremendous growth Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5601968583606275742009-11-06T06:19:48.005-08:002009-11-06T06:19:48.005-08:00I support the view that the last year was an econo...I support the view that the last year was an economic panic (similar to 1907), and we will recover. But I am disturbed by the less reliable household unemployment survey that showed another 588,000 loss of jobs in October. It confirms what I see in my city, small businesses are getting creamed and closing everywhere. Good for Target, McDonalds, etc., but small business doing very poorly. M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72535907674737387262009-11-05T13:49:36.473-08:002009-11-05T13:49:36.473-08:00I'm pretty sure the economy will be stronger a...I'm pretty sure the economy will be stronger a year from now, but it will still be disappointing because we will be way below trend and unemployment will be quite high. It might be very much like what happened in the election of 1992: people were very upset with the economy, yet it was recovering nicely. Bush Sr. was voted out after one term. Only this time the Dem's transgressions (e.g.,Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60960570220491089292009-11-05T13:40:38.116-08:002009-11-05T13:40:38.116-08:00Personally I would rather have a strong(er) econom...Personally I would rather have a strong(er) economy and let the political chips fall where they may.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87860525173300932562009-11-05T12:49:33.094-08:002009-11-05T12:49:33.094-08:00I sympathize. But even if the unemployment rate is...I sympathize. But even if the unemployment rate is falling, it will still be quite high, and the deficit is going to be gigantic. The Dems will not be able to escape being labeled the party of "spend without end and try to tax." That label is a killer, a real killer, given the current mood of the electorate.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8417353338495241322009-11-05T12:41:53.392-08:002009-11-05T12:41:53.392-08:00Personally, I'd prefer if unemployment rates w...Personally, I'd prefer if unemployment rates where to remain sacrificially high through November of 2010. I fear that the "visible" end of the recession will make its appearance just ahead of the 2010 elections -- bad timing for conservatives hoping for an election year win.Cabodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299113185481067179noreply@blogger.com