tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2088782300820889927..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Update on the bursting of the housing price bubbleScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16999784740984021692012-02-24T16:37:38.735-08:002012-02-24T16:37:38.735-08:00Ben, you sure about that?
Read the articular I pos...Ben, you sure about that?<br />Read the articular I posted about foreclosures in Beverly Hills - the high end just takes more time to correct as the wealthy have more ability to hold out longer.<br /><br />Here is the Price Per Square Foot ($PPSFT) drop in West LA from 2007 to 2011 and 2010 to 2011. High end is getting beat hard if you ask me.<br /><br />West LA<br />90025 (-22.6)(-14.1)<br /><Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12616454339935658018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49391226608380425012012-02-24T12:02:40.392-08:002012-02-24T12:02:40.392-08:00Squire--
Yeah, tell me how buying a home in Nevad...Squire--<br /><br />Yeah, tell me how buying a home in Nevada has worked out. Or Phoenix. Or Florida. <br /><br />Odd thing about real estate. Manhattan and West LA house prices still go to the moon. When supply is crimped....<br /><br />Our nation is becoming wealthier. Ergo, home prices go up, and way, way up at the high end.<br /><br />Where do rich people want to live? West Los Angeles, Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39606396305962975192012-02-24T10:42:26.601-08:002012-02-24T10:42:26.601-08:00uNKNOWN, your second post is brilliant!
I would l...uNKNOWN, your second post is brilliant!<br /><br />I would like to add, that the NAR and their local clients, have for decades co-opt the system by their governmental alliance, with as many laws and regulations erected to make entry difficult and costly.<br /><br />Back in the early 90's, the industry fought tooth and nails to destroy the "discounters" and the "sell it yourselfHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10269291329984580532012-02-24T10:34:23.194-08:002012-02-24T10:34:23.194-08:00I love the foothills on the western side of the Si...I love the foothills on the western side of the Sierras; planning to explore the budding Calaveras Valley wines centered in Murphys. I could live in the foothills but I would only rent. It is still California.<br /><br />I am looking in Northern Nevada to make my second purchase there; looking for 40 acres.<br /><br />Today, it is exciting that we are finally at the major resistance point of S&Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83578649763005415182012-02-24T10:21:33.960-08:002012-02-24T10:21:33.960-08:0020% more to go and the 10 year cycle has 2-4 more ...20% more to go and the 10 year cycle has 2-4 more years to workout. I said this 2-3 years ago on this blog. There is no reason to jump into residnetial real estate until prices in your area start consistently increasing on a YOY basis.<br /><br />Everyone now knows real estate is not the golden goose so unless Ben starts driopping dollar bills from helicopters, your best trade continues to be do Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34138525387682873262012-02-24T10:17:44.364-08:002012-02-24T10:17:44.364-08:00Chris-
Forst let me say how envious I am of your ...Chris-<br /><br />Forst let me say how envious I am of your place of residence!<br /><br />But go ahead and buy. The tax breaks are generous, and your house will appreciate in the next 20 years (I assume you plan to stay put). Maybe you can buy on 15-year mortgage, and stop paying rent or mortgages in that time frame. Forever. <br /><br />No mortgage is a great part of any retirement plan.<br Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78377215555930129192012-02-24T09:45:22.319-08:002012-02-24T09:45:22.319-08:00@Chris, I agree that real estate prices are still ...@Chris, I agree that real estate prices are still marked too high -- however, I have seen some cash offers with side kickers accepted in the past six months that would shock everyone -- owners are under real stress, and offers of 50% off offerings with a cash kicker to "get out" are being accepted by the desperate -- and I mean high quality properties by the way -- sellers are desperateMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31601091781443761192012-02-24T09:34:50.593-08:002012-02-24T09:34:50.593-08:00We may have reached bottom in some areas but not a...We may have reached bottom in some areas but not all of them. Here in the foothill communities of the central Sierra we certainly are not at the bottom and we won't be until renting is a bad choice. I've looked hard at buying some investment properties but unless I can buy them, even the foreclosures, at 15% lower prices than are currently moving my ROI would be less than 3%. Maybe good Chris McFarlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152488422862440208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27261848345977176062012-02-24T09:18:40.746-08:002012-02-24T09:18:40.746-08:00Steve-
Many items are cheaper today than five or ...Steve-<br /><br />Many items are cheaper today than five or even 20 years ago.<br /><br />In 1990 I bought a used 1986 Isuzu Trooper for $8k. I still drive the vehicle, despite having four cylinders it gets about 15 mpg. <br /><br />A friend just bought a used Prius, for $8k. It gets 45 mpg, and has so many gizmos inside...GPS, stereos, motorized mirrors etc. <br /><br />Cars are cheaper and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1040011593949320792012-02-24T08:16:24.198-08:002012-02-24T08:16:24.198-08:00@Steve, evidence of depression along Main Street i...@Steve, evidence of depression along Main Street include the ongoing stagnation in real working wages, the persistent declines in home values, and the decade-long decline in the US employment to population ratio -- prices may be going up for commodities, yes, but real incomes, property values, and employment opportunities are down sharply over the past 3-4 years -- this evidenced is indisputable.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63627925191948733982012-02-24T05:24:15.379-08:002012-02-24T05:24:15.379-08:00deflation? are you joking me? gas, food, college t...deflation? are you joking me? gas, food, college tuition, basically STUFF is sig more expensive now than 5 yrs ago. there IS inflation except in wages. FEAR is why treasuries are trading where they are today.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33328772927545208922012-02-24T05:06:31.014-08:002012-02-24T05:06:31.014-08:00Who wants to sign a 30 or even a 15-year mortgage ...Who wants to sign a 30 or even a 15-year mortgage contract when they have no job security and need to plan for the next layoff? <br /><br />It's the down side and unintended consequence of offshoring and union busting. This is the new normal. <br /><br />House prices (especially mid-range) will continue to fall until business decides to change its ethics and realize, as Henry Ford did, that &Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1247689912633311252012-02-23T17:15:56.544-08:002012-02-23T17:15:56.544-08:00Hans: note that when I say that prices are the sam...Hans: note that when I say that prices are the same today as mid-1970s levels, I am referring to the inflation-adjusted price, not the nominal price. Big difference. On a nominal basis, prices are back to 2001-2002 levels, and this refers to a nationwide average, so there are probably many areas such as you refer to that have dropped by more, while other have dropped by less.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90100556772133227332012-02-23T17:08:34.956-08:002012-02-23T17:08:34.956-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59790729406242842122012-02-23T17:07:00.949-08:002012-02-23T17:07:00.949-08:00Meet with a real estate agent today (St Paul &...Meet with a real estate agent today (St Paul & Mpls) who told us, that the properties he is listing and selling, are priced at the 1997 or 1998 levels..<br /><br />I can tell you, unequivocally, that nothing in my metro is selling at prices in the mid 1970's, unless the NAR is sampling from the slums... <br /><br />Thanks to the meddling of the Bank Bernank, Mr Grannis, is correct that Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64603006976282629552012-02-23T17:03:45.229-08:002012-02-23T17:03:45.229-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23201905355799093742012-02-23T15:52:02.981-08:002012-02-23T15:52:02.981-08:00Dr. McKibben--
I do not think the Fed will allow ...Dr. McKibben--<br /><br />I do not think the Fed will allow deflation (although they have courted it). <br /><br />We see the BoJ, ECB and Fed taking bullish measures of late. Timid, feeble, but in the right direction. <br /><br />However, some contend the US money supply is actually contracting, as we improperly measure it. <br /><br />Still, the Chicken Inflation Littles have been somewhat Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60369993214197851252012-02-23T13:39:07.130-08:002012-02-23T13:39:07.130-08:00@Benjamin, America is determined to take a detour ...@Benjamin, America is determined to take a detour through deflation and depression -- Europe is already there -- best not to fight economic trends -- better to exploit economic trends -- deflation and depression are just another money-making opportunity -- the inflation will come soon enough -- probably after 2020 or 2025, which is no time at all.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36490304805877615972012-02-23T13:18:55.466-08:002012-02-23T13:18:55.466-08:00Money, money everywhere, and no inflation in sight...Money, money everywhere, and no inflation in sight. <br /><br />Today: <br /><br /><br />(Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices rose on Thursday as intense bidding at a $29 billion seven-year debt auction spurred buying in the broader bond market, pushing benchmark yields below 2 percent.<br /><br />Treasuries reversed earlier losses following the debt sale, the last part of this week's $99 Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21890810909981377782012-02-23T12:33:32.626-08:002012-02-23T12:33:32.626-08:00Northern Nevada (Gardnerville, Minden, Carson, Ren...Northern Nevada (Gardnerville, Minden, Carson, Reno, Sparks) seems to be having more residential sales than I have seen since the crash. Less falling out of escrow. Where prices are distressed they get purchased quickly. Walking my neighborhood last evening (great weather on the SF Peninsula) I came across a small house for sale at $625k. I can’t wait to see what it sells for. In Minden, Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32428162563500240392012-02-23T12:14:06.398-08:002012-02-23T12:14:06.398-08:00"I doubt that they have an interest in making..."I doubt that they have an interest in making home prices look weaker than they really are."<br /><br />Why? Don't you think they are motivated to claim a housing bottom - as they have the last four years in a row in an obvious attempt to motivate buyers and increase sales? <br /><br />From 2007 through 2011, prices were too high in most markets to warrant purchasing for cashflow Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12616454339935658018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25974705017785259302012-02-23T12:01:27.003-08:002012-02-23T12:01:27.003-08:00Why do you consistently ignore the supply side of ...Why do you consistently ignore the supply side of this? <br />6M homes in the foreclosure pipeline that need to be deal with. Home many homes are on the entire MLS right now? Foreclosure rates are way, way higher than normal times and rising in the last couple months. The settlement with the banks last month has paved the way for a whole flood of foreclosures to hit the market. <br /><br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12616454339935658018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84655109002117665612012-02-23T11:09:18.719-08:002012-02-23T11:09:18.719-08:00If you can, invest in residential real estate. Wow...If you can, invest in residential real estate. Wow. <br /><br />Also, see this:<br /><br />S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper on Record Profits<br />By Inyoung Hwang and Lu Wang - Feb 23, 2012 6:41 AM PT<br /><br />Profits in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are rising faster than its price, leaving the gauge 9 percent cheaper than it was in April even after American equities climbed within 6 points Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com