tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1973822555259370786..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Still no sign of a double-dipScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78981876781810859152011-10-02T12:12:31.840-07:002011-10-02T12:12:31.840-07:00How are commodity prices faring and how do they fa...How are commodity prices faring and how do they factor into your outlook? You did not mention them as you frequently do despite weakness in some such as copper.Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65792792612964626302011-09-30T18:22:11.856-07:002011-09-30T18:22:11.856-07:00Great point on emerging market yield curves. But ...Great point on emerging market yield curves. But then lower rates should fix their issues, but not so in the U.S. So following that logic, there is hope for monetary policy in the emerging markets, but not in the U.S. But the emerging markets are where 80% of the future growth is, so I guess that means we have some hope of recovery in the critical emerging markets.M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64691975201844759482011-09-30T15:39:48.627-07:002011-09-30T15:39:48.627-07:00Scott,
Is it possible that the yield curve we sho...Scott,<br /><br />Is it possible that the yield curve we should be paying attention to is China, India's and Brazil. Aren't those curves inverted?<br /><br />I know Brazil just lowered their rate, which I thought would make the EM's start to perform, but it only lasted one days. China needs to lower rates, but it may be too late. Asian markets are giving up the ghost.<br /><br /><Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04562741178312721354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25422650842274504722011-09-30T13:44:54.556-07:002011-09-30T13:44:54.556-07:00All great thoughts on ECRI. I love ECRI, but I th...All great thoughts on ECRI. I love ECRI, but I think the market front ran them this time with the decline.<br /><br />On steep yield curve, Francois Trahan said slope of yield curve is not a good predictor of recession in zero rate world. In Japan, they had a steep yield curve for 20 years and a terrible economy - same thing now in U.S. <br /><br />That's his call, but interesting contraryM Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17953593382142750062011-09-30T13:16:40.653-07:002011-09-30T13:16:40.653-07:00So, in reference to MaggotatBroad&Wall's c...So, in reference to MaggotatBroad&Wall's comment, I wonder how much stock market downside we have from here if ECRI's recession call is right. Presumably a lot of traders started selling when ECRI forecast a global slowdown in the spring and the WLI started turning down. So how much of the selling has already happened?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14639267999660217122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70951170809780812532011-09-30T12:10:03.563-07:002011-09-30T12:10:03.563-07:00Betting against ECRI is usually a bad bet. But th...Betting against ECRI is usually a bad bet. But they are so concerned about accuracy and not making a bad call, that the equity markets often figures it out before they do. The past couple of cycles the equity markets have already declined by 15% or so before they have gone public with their call. No different this time, if in fact we're entering a new recession.<br /><br />Peronally, I donMaggotAtBroad&Wallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493406951892285654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67493417135117441542011-09-30T11:57:04.248-07:002011-09-30T11:57:04.248-07:00I understand the charts and the logic behind the &...I understand the charts and the logic behind the "no new recession" calls, but isn't there a point at which the constant barrage of bad news causes a pull-back in corporate/private spending, which leads to a new recession? How do you monitor that? Won't the nattering nabobs of negativity win at some point?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05199522736451064027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23870558320146797452011-09-30T11:01:37.657-07:002011-09-30T11:01:37.657-07:00This same chart would conclude that Japanese monet...This same chart would conclude that Japanese monetary policy has been "easy."<br /><br />So, for 20 years, the Bank of Japan has had an "easy" monetary policy, and thus prices roared up by negative 15 percent (GDP deflator stats). In nominal terms, Japan's GDP is lower today than in 1990. <br /><br />There is a fundamental misconception (as Milton Friedman said) that low Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84401907184629960182011-09-30T10:37:11.851-07:002011-09-30T10:37:11.851-07:00Problem is we are 1 sneeze away from another disas...Problem is we are 1 sneeze away from another disaster and not really in a better place to deal with it. The Fed is more levered and discombobulated than ever. Not surprising though. Taxing the people to keep banks afloat is never a good recipe for investment and recovery.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7657742287238966942011-09-30T10:21:52.466-07:002011-09-30T10:21:52.466-07:00I doubt America is on the verge of "another&q...I doubt America is on the verge of "another" recession -- growth trajectories are trending slightly upwards -- inflation is below the long-term historical average of 3% -- however, unemployment is unlikely to improve in the coming years -- anyone with only a high school education entering the workforce today is unlikely to earn wages that exceed the qualifying standard for food stamps McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12891670174927422532011-09-30T10:21:05.256-07:002011-09-30T10:21:05.256-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80321367201755499802011-09-30T10:14:53.633-07:002011-09-30T10:14:53.633-07:00Could it be that the supposedly infallible ECRI ac...Could it be that the supposedly infallible ECRI actually got this call wrong? That would be a game changer. But now that every trader in the world hangs on ECRI's every word, it may be that they've lost their predictive ability.<br /><br />It seems that ECRI's opinions are a lot more conventional than they used to be. In 2010, they were predicting expansion in the midst of recession Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14639267999660217122noreply@blogger.com