tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1917708883953468413..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: ABS, CMBS prices continue to riseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9053610480598792902010-04-26T18:27:31.466-07:002010-04-26T18:27:31.466-07:00Veneratio: Sorry, I don't.Veneratio: Sorry, I don't.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13036149408573059232010-04-26T17:45:02.582-07:002010-04-26T17:45:02.582-07:00Hi Scott,
Do you know of any free databases that...Hi Scott, <br /><br />Do you know of any free databases that show pricing information for CMBS(including different tranche prices)? <br /><br />Thanks! <br /><br />Jon SandlundUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11385766340913067835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53778234093325410092010-04-13T06:39:24.171-07:002010-04-13T06:39:24.171-07:00John,
Best wishes for your family.
RandyJohn,<br /><br />Best wishes for your family.<br /><br />Randyrandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80029219457574639852010-04-12T16:10:23.415-07:002010-04-12T16:10:23.415-07:00Guys, this is it for me for awhile. My Dad's g...Guys, this is it for me for awhile. My Dad's gone into the hospital and I gotta go. I don't think its critical but at 89 you never know. <br /><br />Nite, ya'llJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74594865947041012502010-04-12T15:54:28.804-07:002010-04-12T15:54:28.804-07:00Benj,
I see your point on commodity prices being ...Benj,<br /><br />I see your point on commodity prices being more directly tied to global demand than US monetary policy. However, keep in mind that during the crisis the entire world's monetary authorities conducted coordinated and sustained stimulative policies. It was not just China. That stimulus is continuing, again, by all the world's major central banks. Commodity prices in my view Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86473373541181220302010-04-12T15:53:13.159-07:002010-04-12T15:53:13.159-07:00John-
Great write-up.John-<br /><br />Great write-up.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85007185923353763872010-04-12T15:24:21.765-07:002010-04-12T15:24:21.765-07:00Randy,
I understand your concerns. You have massi...Randy,<br /><br />I understand your concerns. You have massive amounts of company. I'll try to address your points. <br /><br />Clarity: If there was a time to worry about clarity it was in 2008. The regulators have been through the banks' balance sheets with vaccume cleaners. Every (and I do mean EVERY) asset has been 'stress tested' repeatedly and if the slightest weakness showsJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34346055706288255982010-04-12T14:35:40.666-07:002010-04-12T14:35:40.666-07:00BTW, I checked out mainland China monetary growth-...BTW, I checked out mainland China monetary growth--up about 22 percent in last year, compared to slight negative growth in the USA (using St. Louis Fed MZM).<br /><br />Okay, the Yuan is pegged to the dollar.<br /><br />So, if commodity prices rise due to Chinese demand and monetary growth, then global commodity prices will go up even in dollar terms--the two currencies are tied together. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47307630873793097432010-04-12T14:14:26.177-07:002010-04-12T14:14:26.177-07:00John,
My problem with the banks and financial sec...John,<br /><br />My problem with the banks and financial sector in general is one of clarity. I haven't put the time you have into looking closely at them, but how can one trust earnings and balance sheet when they have "substantial discretion" in valuing assets (rather than mark to market). Sounds like Enron to me. On top of that, the meddling federal government - who can guess randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61468936607650430772010-04-12T13:54:46.127-07:002010-04-12T13:54:46.127-07:00Sir Christian,
How refreshing to hear from someo...Sir Christian, <br /><br />How refreshing to hear from someone who sees the opportunity in the financial stocks. Everywhere I go (especially over on SA) it seems all anyone sees is 'more foreclosures' or 'commercial RE is going to h---)' or 'the coming tsunami of second mortgage defaults' etc, etc, etc. To me, these problems have long been seen by the market and have been Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89633965570103951522010-04-12T13:29:51.086-07:002010-04-12T13:29:51.086-07:00Family Man,
I have a good tennis friend whose wif...Family Man,<br /><br />I have a good tennis friend whose wife is Polish. She had a distant cousin on the plane. What a wretched tragedy! My family's prayers go to you and your country. <br /><br />While the pain is great, Poland will survive this disaster. I believe Poland is destined for great things on the world stage. This will not stop you. In fact, in some ways it could accelerate PolandJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2330464127028548412010-04-12T13:24:01.514-07:002010-04-12T13:24:01.514-07:00Hi Benj,
My commodity - inflation relationship qu...Hi Benj,<br /><br />My commodity - inflation relationship question was really a hypothetical one. It goes something like, GIVEN an accelerating inflation rate, would not generally rising commodity prices be a necessary occurance? If the answer is 'yes' then would not the fact of generally rising commodity prices be a signal of POTENTIAL inflation?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79277627336057120522010-04-12T10:05:24.336-07:002010-04-12T10:05:24.336-07:00Above 11,000 ont he DJI!
Yes, I know it is just a...Above 11,000 ont he DJI!<br /><br />Yes, I know it is just a number, not even a milestone number like 10,000.<br /><br />Yet, I think this one is big. Each 1,000 milestaone further signals recovery, and more and more investors will put their toes into the stock market water.<br /><br />You may wish to re-value any gold positions, If equities rally, the steam will leave the gold sector.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64956743450553940622010-04-11T15:28:42.357-07:002010-04-11T15:28:42.357-07:00BTW:
I turned on the "Dodger station" 7...BTW:<br /><br />I turned on the "Dodger station" 790 in Los Angeles, and some guy had purchased a block of time to hype his gold investment company. I listened for 15 minutes, and it was pretty dreadful.<br /><br />This does remind me of the last fluff-bubble in gold in 1986, when the yellow metal topped $900. The more you see gold websites, TV shows, cover of any magazine, then you Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7906870779151524142010-04-11T13:52:52.788-07:002010-04-11T13:52:52.788-07:00Thanks Scott,
Re, real estates stabilization, NAH...Thanks Scott,<br /><br />Re, real estates stabilization, NAH survey show that altough asking rents are still heading lower, effective rents are in bottoming phase. Rents are a crucial factor in a process of regaing pricing power by the companies.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71483637065448389112010-04-11T13:30:37.285-07:002010-04-11T13:30:37.285-07:00Scott-
Certainly, any method of measuring prices ...Scott-<br /><br />Certainly, any method of measuring prices has shortcomings. <br /><br />Well, time will tell on inflation, I guess. <br /><br />BTW, while I am dubious abut inflation anytime in the next three years, in fact I am property-heavy and commodity heavy in my portfolio. The wife. <br /><br />I suspect that, like many husbands, how I invest and how I want to invest are tripped up by Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22030927639019756742010-04-11T11:59:24.912-07:002010-04-11T11:59:24.912-07:00a propos of the recovery in banks, and where we ar...a propos of the recovery in banks, and where we are in the process, i was listening to dick bove on bloomberg radio say that last year the banks had some 200B in writeoffs/reserves that hit earnings, and that he thought normal was 40-50B. hence his claim that if the banks just maintain their operating earnings going forward, as reserves approach normal, the banks stocks can pop 300-400%.<br /><Christian S. Herzeca, Esq.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09913237226503475709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26844907594149212672010-04-11T11:50:36.558-07:002010-04-11T11:50:36.558-07:00Re: deflation. Finding one group of commodities th...Re: deflation. Finding one group of commodities that are declining in price, or citing the decline in real estate prices is far from sufficient to reach a conclusion that we are on the verge of deflation. On the contrary, I think it much more likely that you are simply seeing a change in relative prices caused by unwanted inventories of housing, for example, or a shift from a very weak global Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69661578540546937122010-04-11T11:48:15.780-07:002010-04-11T11:48:15.780-07:00Benjamin: the CRB index you cite has some deficien...Benjamin: the CRB index you cite has some deficiencies that you should be aware of. For one, it is heavily influenced by energy prices (natural gas, heating oil, and crude). Also, it only has a few commodities from each major group, so just one (e.g., sugar) can have an outsized influence. I note that sugar and natural gas have dropped considerably in the past year. <br /><br />There are other Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38593669919016032192010-04-11T11:43:10.900-07:002010-04-11T11:43:10.900-07:00Family Man: that is a terrible loss for the world ...Family Man: that is a terrible loss for the world and for Poland. My sincere condolences.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22377138803518870642010-04-11T09:40:26.161-07:002010-04-11T09:40:26.161-07:00John : thanks for the tip-off on SA.
Also a litt...John : thanks for the tip-off on SA. <br /><br />Also a little OT: According to the cover of the LA Times business section today, the CRB index of 19 commodities is down 3.5 percent for the first quarter.<br /><br />Now, I do not think commodities are as important as 30 years ago, for two reasons; They are less of our overall outlays, and because of that demand is relatively inelastic. That is Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29865342831905918792010-04-11T03:26:20.221-07:002010-04-11T03:26:20.221-07:00Scott,
Sorry for off topic, but here in Poland we ...Scott,<br />Sorry for off topic, but here in Poland we lost the top patriots: Mr.President prof. Lech Kaczyński and his wife Maria, the top polish army commanders, polish army bishop, NBP chief, National Memory Institue chief and many others top people. Among them Ms.Anna Walentynowicz - the legendary Solidarity woman. Thanks to her heroic attitude the main strike in 1980 did not ended to early. Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85200627248249967802010-04-10T15:28:05.047-07:002010-04-10T15:28:05.047-07:00Benj,
I am sorry. I should have been more specif...Benj, <br /><br />I am sorry. I should have been more specific. I have used the acronym for so long it just seemed normal. I should not be so critical of the site. Its where I discovered this one!Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2624613423244083492010-04-10T13:06:28.415-07:002010-04-10T13:06:28.415-07:00I've just read some of the comment on SA. The...I've just read some of the comment on SA. There really is a lot of anger and frustration toward this wonderful recovery! The market has been telling, actually yelling at these people their outlook is wrong for a year now and they still don't hear it. <br /><br />Investment opportunities are always made from the inefficiencies of man! The more the merrier!狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91188037185871455852010-04-10T10:12:33.027-07:002010-04-10T10:12:33.027-07:00Seekingalpha.comSeekingalpha.comScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com