tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1899384322783729314..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Emerging market updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33535536596650401882010-08-16T05:59:30.788-07:002010-08-16T05:59:30.788-07:00But for EM CB food inflation probably is of more ...But for EM CB food inflation probably is of more weight.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89040894113607089052010-08-08T11:59:09.120-07:002010-08-08T11:59:09.120-07:00mdelp: Re using short term high yield bonds as an ...mdelp: Re using short term high yield bonds as an alternative for corporate reserve accounts. That might be attractive to some, given the current environment of easy money and the benefit that confers to those who are leveraged. But short-term HY bonds are not necessary riskless investments, whereas "reserve" accounts tend to be risk-averse. So you are mixing apples and oranges to some Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16604821148954057532010-08-08T11:54:54.197-07:002010-08-08T11:54:54.197-07:00Family Man: The Fed doesn't try to use food pr...Family Man: The Fed doesn't try to use food prices as an input to their policy decisions. Food prices, like energy prices, are volatile. That's the main reason the Fed has decided to use the core (ex food and energy) version of the PCE deflator as it's policy target.<br /><br />I don't completely agree with this approach, since I think the Fed should also focus on the value of theScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66694935427474061282010-08-06T10:38:17.859-07:002010-08-06T10:38:17.859-07:00Benj,
The Fed meets next week. Today's unempl...Benj,<br /><br />The Fed meets next week. Today's unemployment data may spur some movement. I am still doubting it but they may signal something new. We will see.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30677176647530046192010-08-06T09:46:04.017-07:002010-08-06T09:46:04.017-07:00As always John, I enjoy your commentary--even when...As always John, I enjoy your commentary--even when I disagree!Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75658835443961437882010-08-06T05:08:31.506-07:002010-08-06T05:08:31.506-07:00Scott,
Is a current spike in food prices anything...Scott,<br /><br />Is a current spike in food prices anything to worry about (i.e. some kind of shock which can force Central Banks to tighten rapidly)<br /><br />Thanks,Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32492630414581377862010-08-05T20:13:24.809-07:002010-08-05T20:13:24.809-07:00Benj,
There is $1 Trillion plus sitting in member...Benj,<br /><br />There is $1 Trillion plus sitting in member banks accounts at the Fed earning .25%. There is plenty of money. The problem seems to me to be a reluctance of businesses and individuals to borrow. Some of it is probably uncertainty and unease with this government. Every businessman I know dislikes it and feels it is hostile to his/her interests (anecdotal for sure). The result is a Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54339110388682148512010-08-05T18:19:26.474-07:002010-08-05T18:19:26.474-07:00Public Library-
9 times out of 10, yes the Fed sho...Public Library-<br />9 times out of 10, yes the Fed should shut up and expand the money supply by 4 percent a year like robots. <br />This is that 10th time.<br />The worst recession in the postwar era, and falling real estate prices. Basically, with falling r/e you will not get a recovery. More and more banks will tank, more and more small businesses will have access to capital cut off. A Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2666675535743945432010-08-05T16:46:56.957-07:002010-08-05T16:46:56.957-07:00Scott,
I have been following your posted since ea...Scott,<br /><br />I have been following your posted since early 2009. fantastic reading.<br /><br />I manage reserve accounts for corporations and am considering taking my approach and creating an open end mutual fund focused on short term high yield bonds. I would appreciated any feedback on this since you have been involved in that industry.<br />thanksmdelphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05144952014455810632noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77098732513477875642010-08-05T13:22:48.743-07:002010-08-05T13:22:48.743-07:00Public,
For sure risk averse investors should avo...Public,<br /><br />For sure risk averse investors should avoid the space. No problem. <br /><br />Incidently, Chevron (CHV-NYSE) closed up today for the eleventh consecutive day. Of course, many factors are involved in short term equity moves. But for such a large company to have such a sustained move is unusual. I do not think it is based on the prospects for domestic demand. The growth is Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83400483845439570602010-08-05T11:52:36.605-07:002010-08-05T11:52:36.605-07:00Too much ivory tower economics in the EM space. I ...Too much ivory tower economics in the EM space. I was in Hungary just before the currency blew up again in 2005/06.<br /><br />If you were actually on the ground floor, you easily noticed there was no local economy and the banking system was fragmented. They were not a financial capital nor a manufacturing mecca.<br /><br />However, they became the 10th most expensive city in the world. It was a Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9102060447929567212010-08-05T11:35:32.467-07:002010-08-05T11:35:32.467-07:00I'm not crazy about the Russians either. Most ...I'm not crazy about the Russians either. Most diversified EMF I know of have a light weighting there. It is a highly specialized area of investing and should not be attempted by individuals without competent guidance. Countries like Brazil, Turkey, Poland, among many others will grow much faster than developed countries over the next several years...but there are risks. One needs patience andJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80096403534138811472010-08-05T10:59:02.580-07:002010-08-05T10:59:02.580-07:00Btw, Russia banning wheat exports is a great remin...Btw, Russia banning wheat exports is a great reminder of what type of countries you are really investing in with EM...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90014110915310320672010-08-05T10:35:44.561-07:002010-08-05T10:35:44.561-07:00Benj,
I like more and more of what you are saying...Benj,<br /><br />I like more and more of what you are saying except the 'Fed do more' stuff. I think the Fed should do less and normalize rates. This would send a clear signal the market needs to operate on its own accord. <br /><br />Cutting off the lifelines of beleaguered individuals and corporations is just what this economy needs to rebuild. Providing more lifelines will send us intoPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66252866985442277342010-08-05T09:27:05.054-07:002010-08-05T09:27:05.054-07:00BTW, another AEI guy talks deflation.
John Makin ...BTW, another AEI guy talks deflation.<br /><br />John Makin of Caxton Associates and the American Enterprise Institute spoke with CNBC this morning about the threat of deflation now hanging over the U.S. economy.<br />Makin explains that deflation is already here. He talks about how CPI is only at 0.9% right now, and heading lower. That prices and wages in the U.S. are falling, and that we are Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26816852156899026482010-08-04T21:13:40.253-07:002010-08-04T21:13:40.253-07:00Every once in a while I am tempted by South Americ...Every once in a while I am tempted by South American stocks. Then, sooner or later, the South Americans do what South Americans do best--wreck everything. Do I mention Argentina? Venezuela? Mexico (technically Norte, but...).<br /><br />I can remember a money firm in Los Angeles--TCW--touting Mexico maybe 20 years ago. Mexico tanked. <br /><br />Is Brazil different? I sure hope so, and you Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44468320492375227542010-08-04T18:35:04.892-07:002010-08-04T18:35:04.892-07:00We discussed emerging markets some months back. I ...We discussed emerging markets some months back. I believe it was just prior to the 'euro is doomed' scare in May. I seem to remember suggesting a dollar cost averaging strategy into a good managed emerging markets fund keeping a multi year time horizon. I still think it is a good idea and will reap large rewards. It will IMO vastly outperform bonds.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.com