tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1736514001703264248..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The Fed is too easy, but profits are spectacular Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91675533309867936642021-12-09T07:49:06.249-08:002021-12-09T07:49:06.249-08:00If you back out O/N RRPs from the money stock, the...If you back out O/N RRPs from the money stock, then R-gDp is taking such a hit that the FED must ease monetary policy:<br />01/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.645<br />02/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.659<br />03/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.697<br />04/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.671<br />05/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.646<br />06/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.518<br />07/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.475<br />08/1/2021 ,,,,, 0.252<br />09/1/2021 ,,,,, -0.014<br />10/1/2021 ,,,,, -0.042<br />11/Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9236558724524423772021-12-09T06:12:16.889-08:002021-12-09T06:12:16.889-08:00Part of the problem is that the hawks have been ca...Part of the problem is that the hawks have been calling for hyperinflation to arrive imminently for the past decade (at least since Obama became president), at one point those who cry wolf become the object of derision. <br /><br />Inflation has been low not because of temperance but because of off-shoring by manufacturers, you just have to look at the cost of service to see where inflation Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46597215361946395222021-12-09T04:36:34.120-08:002021-12-09T04:36:34.120-08:00^Yes Occam's razor likely applies here.
It see...^Yes Occam's razor likely applies here.<br />It seems many low-hanging fruits were simply left behind and maybe we should just leave it at that.<br />The nice thing about vaccines is that once you've thought about it, you don't really need to think about it anymore. The same applies for dollar-cost-averaging, index investing and long-term buy and hold. <br />But the crowd isn't Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69963849302234656992021-12-08T16:36:47.002-08:002021-12-08T16:36:47.002-08:00Verily.
But maybe humans are as smart as fruit b...Verily. <br /><br />But maybe humans are as smart as fruit bats. <br /><br />Most people with C19 have no symptoms. You can't ask people to self isolate who have no idea they have an extremely mild respiratory illness (in their case).<br /><br />Omicron to the rescue! <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31584002157368671002021-12-08T06:08:13.344-08:002021-12-08T06:08:13.344-08:00Hi Benjamin,
This site is macro oriented and i try...Hi Benjamin,<br />This site is macro oriented and i try to channel covid inputs into covid discussion forums but since you're asking. And there is a macro/investment connection.<br /><br />Yes covid is becoming flu-like and cost-benefit questions will continue to be part of the increasingly bipolarized discussions. Yes 'we' should have taken the covid thing more on the chin (Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4620500560642438252021-12-07T23:22:55.901-08:002021-12-07T23:22:55.901-08:00Carl--
Just an idea: Let us posit the omicron var...Carl--<br /><br />Just an idea: Let us posit the omicron variant is the least dangerous variant yet. <br /><br />Why not let omicron do its work, and inoculate the population? <br /><br />We already know children have no ill effects from C19 to speak of.<br /><br />I assume all the elderly who wanted to be vaxxed are. <br /><br />(Football analogy) At this point, the US game plan seems to be to Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77196807759693454452021-12-07T20:49:47.011-08:002021-12-07T20:49:47.011-08:00@wkevinw
There were some studies showing similar v...@wkevinw<br />There were some studies showing similar viral loads but more studies showing lower viral loads in the vaccinated group and, especially relatively elevated viral loads for a much shorter period in the vaccinated group. Specific references are available if required and there was a Singapore study (very well done) showing decreasing viral loads much more significantly in the vaccinatedCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21969664550748367192021-12-07T15:57:05.753-08:002021-12-07T15:57:05.753-08:00wkevinw--
Unfortunately, I think you are correct....wkevinw--<br /><br />Unfortunately, I think you are correct.<br /><br />If there is good news, it is that the omicron variant may naturally immunize a lot of people.<br /><br />In some bad news, unit labor costs increased at a 9.6% rate in the third quarter.<br /><br />As measured, productivity is declining. Perhaps there is a measurement issue.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-311492438268056562021-12-07T15:25:17.807-08:002021-12-07T15:25:17.807-08:00"The US is a nation of fatties, which may exp..."The US is a nation of fatties, which may explain mortality rates. "<br /><br />Yes.<br /><br />I have posted here before about the deeper statistical investigation using such tests as age and years of life lost adjustment. I believe the age adjustment explains a lot of the mortality differences in different nations. India, most of Africa, etc., have an average population age 20 yearswkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16634533143725727762021-12-06T16:06:25.240-08:002021-12-06T16:06:25.240-08:00My understanding is that in Texas property taxes a...My understanding is that in Texas property taxes are levied annually, are raised annually, and are levied at "highest and best use" for the land in question.<br /><br />This may be a better policy than the California policy.<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65355517967515419632021-12-06T11:16:41.634-08:002021-12-06T11:16:41.634-08:00Interesting side note - while looking at Zillow to...Interesting side note - while looking at Zillow to check the home values, I checked out Michael Dell's home, which is also nearby. It is on 20 acres, and must be 15k square feet (zillow doesn't know). The property tax valuation is $4.8 million, with a tax due of $284,000 annually. The valuation should easily be 4X+ that. The more pertinent point is Michaels contribution to state randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73221378267813663462021-12-06T07:26:56.560-08:002021-12-06T07:26:56.560-08:00^
Productivity numbers are expected to be disappoi...^<br />Productivity numbers are expected to be disappointing for a while as more people are going back to work!<br />Domino effect and looking for root cause:<br />People are going back to leisure and hospitality work and are asking for higher wages in order to maintain nominal retail sales artificially and excessively stimulated by government.<br />Take your pick: Either employment truly Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24959320340354803662021-12-06T05:25:32.647-08:002021-12-06T05:25:32.647-08:00Rumor has it that Elon Musk bought a residential p...Rumor has it that Elon Musk bought a residential property in my neighborhood here in Austin. Will be interesting to see what that does to property values, and helicopter airspace. The 45% increase is potentially misleading. My anecdotal observation is that existing homes values have increased, but the real issue is new homes being built at higher price points. Young and naive tech workers, randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79542168092844984282021-12-06T03:04:07.059-08:002021-12-06T03:04:07.059-08:00Carl:
Pre-bell Monday and stock market is acting ...Carl:<br /><br />Pre-bell Monday and stock market is acting iffy. China property woes, omicron. <br /><br />On Tuesday you might want to look for the productivity and costs report. Let us hope higher productivity of offsetting wage gains.<br /><br />House prices in Austin TX up 45% in last 12 months. <br /><br />This is spooky. <br /><br /><br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8393970816670001032021-12-05T05:57:31.797-08:002021-12-05T05:57:31.797-08:00@Benjamin
In the "An Interview with Milton F...@Benjamin<br /><br />In the "An Interview with Milton Friedman" (1974), Milton Friedman pronounced that businessmen and intellectuals are both enemies of capitalism: most intellectuals believed in socialism while businessmen expected economic privileges."<br />The idea behind these constructive exchanges is to 'grow' between extremes. :)<br />Yes 'we' can become &#Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70697993671118987822021-12-04T15:33:56.860-08:002021-12-04T15:33:56.860-08:00Yes, the business of marriage and the business of ...Yes, the business of marriage and the business of making and keeping money are not one and the same. <br /><br />On C-19, I am agnostic and apolitical (my approach to everything. I lack the intellectual rigor to be an ideologue).<br /><br />I got vaxxed twice. Now they say that is not good enough. <br /><br />The US is a nation of fatties, which may explain mortality rates.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8224935557699587382021-12-04T08:28:15.885-08:002021-12-04T08:28:15.885-08:00Hi Benjamin,
"Meanwhile, the mainstream media...Hi Benjamin,<br />"Meanwhile, the mainstream media seems intent on scaring the population with increasingly horrifying stories about Omicron or the next Covid-19 variant. Wear masks! Show proof of vaccination! Vaccinate children! Booster shots!"<br />The US has done relatively poorly compared to other developed countries in terms of covid excess mortality, particularly for the 15-64 ageCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83817524729440074762021-12-03T16:49:37.241-08:002021-12-03T16:49:37.241-08:00Carl- Boy, that was a doozy of an employment repor...Carl- Boy, that was a doozy of an employment report on Friday. Net new job growth rather wan, and plenty of people quitting the job market. Unemployment sinking.<br /><br />Phoenix house prices are up 30% in the last 12 months.<br /><br />Warehouse workers in Southern California now make $18 an hour. The problem is due to property zoning, and fixed supply, property owners extract higher pay Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54281124373844193562021-12-03T06:21:27.264-08:002021-12-03T06:21:27.264-08:00^When Henry Ford doubled the salary for factory wo...^When Henry Ford doubled the salary for factory workers in 1914, he made headlines and there was a lot of confusion. Obviously, the move was strategic and the essence of the 'adjustment' was to continue to make money. In fact, after, the price per car continued to decrease and production numbers took off for several years. Even if corporate profits were a primary driver, Mr. Ford possiblyCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6539421498099267972021-12-03T03:01:36.837-08:002021-12-03T03:01:36.837-08:00Carl-
Well, I have a yacht, though some people re...Carl-<br /><br />Well, I have a yacht, though some people refer to it as a "dugout canoe."<br /><br />It floats!<br /><br />Not sure on productivity. Seems to be stalling. May be a sign that until recently, labor was cheap. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53780526410921330002021-12-02T19:04:45.626-08:002021-12-02T19:04:45.626-08:00^Oh the measurement issue again. People keep sayin...^Oh the measurement issue again. People keep saying that we've entered a high productivity era and the problem is that it's not properly measured...so where are the customers' yachts?<br />And Mr. Charlie Munger just mentioned some comments about the present market environment and about cryptocurrencies...Let the good times roll (choose the BB King or The Cars version).Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76472687378842478892021-12-02T15:56:02.125-08:002021-12-02T15:56:02.125-08:00Carl-
It does seem that investment in plant and e...Carl-<br /><br />It does seem that investment in plant and equipment and bona-fide R&D in the US has been weak and for a long time.<br /><br />I wonder how much of this has to do with offshoring of industry. There may be measurement issues, also.<br /><br />If the ground rules are that subsidized product can enter the US without tariffs, why would anybody finance industry inside the US?<br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57857723357170285252021-12-02T08:32:03.782-08:002021-12-02T08:32:03.782-08:00Hi Benjamin,
'We' would probably be better...Hi Benjamin,<br />'We' would probably be better off with a lower share of government expenditures per GDP but it's hard (at least for now) to 'see' how this will be achieved. Most people aim to improve their standards of living but the value of productive work is certainly questioned at this point.<br />The corporate world is central to the net production of wealth overall butCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34803976383999344492021-12-01T17:54:51.738-08:002021-12-01T17:54:51.738-08:00Carl-
I share concerns that people who work for a...Carl-<br /><br />I share concerns that people who work for a living---not welfare types---deserve a better cut on the deal. <br /><br />America needs lower housing costs, and to rein in health care bills, and to eliminate taxes on wages and dividends. <br /><br />Free markets can go a long way to these goals. End property zoning, for example. Move taxes onto imports, land and fuels. <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90179241397403889752021-12-01T13:01:00.146-08:002021-12-01T13:01:00.146-08:00And don't forget that profits as a % of GDP ar...And don't forget that profits as a % of GDP are at all-time highs. That is equivalent to saying that profit margins are also at all-time highs. Those facts alone go a long way to justifying current PE ratios. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com