tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1598028036811308661..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Who's afraid of a December rate hike?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50810284061111026932015-11-02T13:35:37.437-08:002015-11-02T13:35:37.437-08:00Did I hear the Fed cry wolf again? Howl all night ...Did I hear the Fed cry wolf again? Howl all night off in the distance - I need to see the wolf now in order to believe it's not just an automated machine causing the howling. Show me a rate hike! I don't know if it is even technically feasible at this point, show me!<br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP<br /><br />Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)<Thinking Hardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528747799967719972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88650748363869982452015-10-29T12:14:41.126-07:002015-10-29T12:14:41.126-07:00JB: You are probably referring to the last chart i...JB: You are probably referring to the last chart in my most recent post (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2015/10/gdp-from-30000-feet.html). Feel free to use it. If you need express permission, you can contact me via LinkedIn.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44387426124556286722015-10-29T09:44:56.964-07:002015-10-29T09:44:56.964-07:00Scott - I am contacting you to get permission to u...Scott - I am contacting you to get permission to use the US REAL GDP graph from your blog in our newsletter. Please let me what I need to get this authorization. JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14845166460026915497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29853830011373951842015-10-29T08:33:16.660-07:002015-10-29T08:33:16.660-07:00Re S&P 500 earnings. I've discussed this q...Re S&P 500 earnings. I've discussed this quite a few times in the past. See these links for starters:<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/05/corporate-profits-continue-to-impress.html<br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2015/03/corporate-profits-are-still-very.html<br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/08/equity-valuation-exercises.html<br /><br />Bottom line, I think Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24262148284004031182015-10-29T08:26:12.536-07:002015-10-29T08:26:12.536-07:00Re: whether Fed should pursue a weaker dollar. Whe...Re: whether Fed should pursue a weaker dollar. When it comes to currencies, everything is relative. If the dollar is too strong, then perhaps an even stronger dollar would be bad, because it would imply a scarcity of dollars and very tight monetary policy. But as I've noted many times, today's dollar is only slightly higher, in inflation-adjusted terms and against a basket of currencies, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87451807664020788132015-10-29T08:15:56.824-07:002015-10-29T08:15:56.824-07:00Re: the long-term inflation-adjusted price of gold...Re: the long-term inflation-adjusted price of gold. See these posts for more details on how I arrive at this figure:<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2015/07/whats-right-price-for-gold.html<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2008/12/intrinsic-value-of-gold.htmlScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38583269436561732762015-10-29T05:27:21.093-07:002015-10-29T05:27:21.093-07:00Do you think the fact that SP earnings are near re...Do you think the fact that SP earnings are near record highs as a percentage of GDP is more a factor of slow GDP growth versus unusual corporate profit growth, and the corollary to that thought being if GDP growth accelerates than profit growth need only keep the long term mean for the ratio of earnings to GDP to return to normal?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68579261319398099152015-10-29T04:50:53.720-07:002015-10-29T04:50:53.720-07:00I think Apple is an undervalued stock but an over ...I think Apple is an undervalued stock but an over hyped company. the iphone is faddish in that it can be easily replaced by a newer spiffier phone. Apple has become largely a one product business in that most of it's earnings are derived from the iphone. THAT is the reason it's trading at such a low pe. the market KNOWS it's pe is 13 and it's earnings have grown at over 40% the stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63994014287887951932015-10-28T22:20:42.129-07:002015-10-28T22:20:42.129-07:00>> Even at current levels, gold is still tra...>> Even at current levels, gold is still trading at a substantial premium to its long-term average price in constant dollars, which I estimate to be around $500-600/oz<br /><br /><br />Perhaps a detailed article would be wonderful on how you arrived at that figure. <br /><br />Thanks.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17322920628394757852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51117862309344986682015-10-28T21:59:01.878-07:002015-10-28T21:59:01.878-07:00Desmond that is
Desmond that is<br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49991916611262929292015-10-28T21:58:24.605-07:002015-10-28T21:58:24.605-07:00Desmongd Lachman, AEI scholar, recommends the Fed ...Desmongd Lachman, AEI scholar, recommends the Fed think about a cheaper dollar and global growth...in his latest blogBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90007872497231906962015-10-28T18:37:22.747-07:002015-10-28T18:37:22.747-07:00Apple is just amazing.
My only fear on Apple is ...Apple is just amazing. <br /><br />My only fear on Apple is that people once felt the same way about Microsoft and before that IBM.<br /><br />I still contend the Fed and other world major central banks are fighting the last war. The policy from here on should be to promote growth and not worry about inflation that much.<br /><br />Many contend the CPI or the index that the Fed uses the PCE Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com