tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post150846588335512308..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: What if something goes right?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85833924376472746472012-08-15T08:34:38.429-07:002012-08-15T08:34:38.429-07:00Frozen: you have simply repeated my main thesis, t...Frozen: you have simply repeated my main thesis, that the market is priced to terrible expectations. Everyone has taken to the hills. No sign of optimism anywhere. Which means that if anything good happens, even if things turn out to be bad instead of terrible, the market is very vulnerable on the upside. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81061065518326579422012-08-15T06:21:33.752-07:002012-08-15T06:21:33.752-07:00A long tine ago, I was taught that you plan for th...A long tine ago, I was taught that you plan for the worse and hope for the best. That has always been my investment philosophy, and it has paid off (I've also been very lucky). <br /><br />Although I buy your argument that things could turn out better, the odds are poor. P/Es are low because profits as a percentage of GDP are historically high levels (not seen in 70 years), you can say Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33661642892067679842012-08-14T20:07:09.391-07:002012-08-14T20:07:09.391-07:00Bloomberg reports the following:
The Treasury also...Bloomberg reports the following:<br />The Treasury also said it is “in the process of building the operational capabilities to allow for negative-rate bidding in Treasury bill auctions, should we make the determination to allow such bidding in the future.”<br /><br />--30--<br /><br />This is not the hyperinflation I was told to expect. Really? Negative yields on Treasuries? <br /><br />How doesBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89680602308312183952012-08-14T19:00:32.703-07:002012-08-14T19:00:32.703-07:00Add on:
Some quick online research confirms that ...Add on:<br /><br />Some quick online research confirms that Romney has been all but mute on monetary policy for many months. Meanwhile, Paul Ryan is something of a crank on monetary policy wanting to go to a gold standard, or commodities-based basket. <br /><br />Is there another party I can vote for? Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75768692695484430952012-08-14T18:45:32.133-07:002012-08-14T18:45:32.133-07:00BTW, Romney has posted his plan for economic growt...BTW, Romney has posted his plan for economic growth, here :<br /><br />http://www.docstoc.com/docs/125714335/Romney-Tax-Reform-White-Paper<br /><br />Most of it I agree with, though it little mentions paring of federal agency spending, pretty much a GOP sacred cow (yes, Defense, Homeland Security, VA, and USDA make up the bulk of agency outlays, a fact never, ever discussed in GOP circles)).<br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88949490157353164912012-08-14T18:32:06.223-07:002012-08-14T18:32:06.223-07:00Excellent overview by Grannis.
I can remember the...Excellent overview by Grannis.<br /><br />I can remember the 1970s, and the gloomy stagflation rising crime in the streets, the Vietnam debacle fresh, and oil skyrocketing due to OPEC actions. Carter became President and emblematic of the time (he had bad luck in many regards, and it is forgotten he appointed Paul Volcker). <br /><br />Nobody asked, "What can go right?" The next two Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2068045916970246172012-08-14T12:44:04.202-07:002012-08-14T12:44:04.202-07:00John said...
"Why didn't Ryan vote for Si...<b>John</b> said...<br />"Why didn't Ryan vote for Simpson-Bowles?"<br /><br />Ryan said that he didn't vote for it because it had too high tax increases.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76458708775921015002012-08-14T11:00:06.209-07:002012-08-14T11:00:06.209-07:00Why didn't Ryan vote for Simpson-Bowles?Why didn't Ryan vote for Simpson-Bowles? Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41420938107398485122012-08-14T10:38:37.125-07:002012-08-14T10:38:37.125-07:00Maybe a silly point but your graph title of, "...Maybe a silly point but your graph title of, "U.S vs. German 2-yr Yields" should read U.S and German 2-yr Yields". They would be 'vs' if one was on the x-axis and one on the y-axis. Versus means 'against' and since they are both on the same axis they are not 'against' each other.NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40730505002684203312012-08-14T09:51:51.094-07:002012-08-14T09:51:51.094-07:00My use of "whacko" to describe Ryan was ...My use of "whacko" to describe Ryan was facetious. In earlier posts I have given him very high marks. I think he is outstandingly good. <br /><br />I see competition as a good thing. Take Apple, which is outcompeting almost everyone and raking in huge profits. Competition leads to superior products and services, and profits follow in their wake. Ask Apple's competitors if they thinkScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31339050381734977422012-08-14T09:42:51.175-07:002012-08-14T09:42:51.175-07:00While coporate profits are doing extremely well, i...While coporate profits are doing extremely well, it seems to me that its being built on an inverse pyramid. Corporate profits are doing well because there is less and less competion in the economy. While it's good for corporate profits, it can't be good for the future of the economy.<br /><br />You may call Ryan a wacko. At least he has an idea to negotiate around.whitemwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16602333145359369417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71218176704448463992012-08-13T22:55:12.497-07:002012-08-13T22:55:12.497-07:00Wow. What a convincing thesis.
The market (S&...Wow. What a convincing thesis.<br /><br />The market (S&P 500) had downers in ’10 and ’11. But the highs in ’11 were higher than the highs in ’10. And the lows in ’11 were higher than the lows in ’10. (Look at weekly charts to easily see this).<br /><br />2012 has had a higher high than 2011’s and the low in 2012 was shallow. The market is challenging the March 2012 higher high. If it Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55629781038475846832012-08-13T16:02:19.793-07:002012-08-13T16:02:19.793-07:00In order to get it right we need to liquidate the ...In order to get it right we need to liquidate the failed institutions and companies requiring government support.<br /><br />Until then, we are looking at a Japanese style slog. 'Capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without sin.' <br /><br />It simply does not work in the long run and until you get that right, the rest seems fairly predictable.<br />Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62903605382895351702012-08-13T15:02:27.588-07:002012-08-13T15:02:27.588-07:00In markets, there is no "right" and &quo...In markets, there is no "right" and "wrong" -- only what is -- no matter what the market does, you have to figure out how to make money -- up or down -- left or right -- it's all a money making opportunity -- the market is always right...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51200898170309064782012-08-13T14:39:15.998-07:002012-08-13T14:39:15.998-07:002012 US Federal Budget:
Department of Defense inc...2012 US Federal Budget:<br /><br />Department of Defense including Overseas Contingency Operations <br />Discretionary <b>$683.0 billion</b> Mandatory $5.3 billion<br /><br />Department of Health and Human Services including Medicare and Medicaid <br />Discretionary $84.2 billion<br />Mandatory <b>$787.8 billion</b><br /><br />Department of Education<br />Discretionary $79.1 billionWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32939006299079121092012-08-13T13:59:13.147-07:002012-08-13T13:59:13.147-07:00Excellent Commentary. Thank you for sharing your e...Excellent Commentary. Thank you for sharing your expertise and investment experience!! <br /><br />WilliamWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.com