tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1395129401238914111..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Claims back on trackScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3484715623353067882013-04-15T08:44:23.971-07:002013-04-15T08:44:23.971-07:00AAII bulls in the week of the October 2007 S&P...AAII bulls in the week of the October 2007 S&P high: 31%<br /><br />AAII bulls in the week of April 4, 2012: 35%.<br /><br />Doesn't provide any comfort for me.Gloeschihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10705125909506053628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10294706032473828462013-04-12T20:28:15.826-07:002013-04-12T20:28:15.826-07:00My interpretation of the present AAII data would b...My interpretation of the present AAII data would be that with them so Bearish (54.5%), it is very unlikely that the market will have a correction greater than 10% in the next two months. <br /><br />The AAII survey along with Schaeffer's Investors Intelligence reading and the Lipper Fund Flows, etc. is enough for me to feel comfortable that the equity market is not at a "top" that IWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4235705025418366612013-04-12T18:14:36.460-07:002013-04-12T18:14:36.460-07:00@ William:
"Extremes" are only known ex-...@ William:<br />"Extremes" are only known ex-post. Was the -15% net bulls in January 2008 extreme bearishness, with SPX at 1,450? So maybe the -25% in February 2008 at SPX 1,326? What about -15% net bulls in January 2009 at SPX 900? Well, it went to 666. Net bulls were -26% in the week of the bear market low (3/12/2009), essentially same as at SPX 1,326.<br />I am sorry, but if there Gloeschihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10705125909506053628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35550828508676023452013-04-12T12:29:42.572-07:002013-04-12T12:29:42.572-07:00Of course, Gloeschi, but at extremes it's a st...<b>Of course</b>, Gloeschi, but at extremes it's a strong contrary indicator. The AAII is just one of several sentiment indicators I look at on a regular basis as well as objective data.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25455925645644829222013-04-12T11:40:01.343-07:002013-04-12T11:40:01.343-07:00AAII: useless. The best r squared you get between ...AAII: useless. The best r squared you get between the level of net bulls and future performance of SPX is 0.01. Test for yourself, take any time period you want. It is absolutely useless information. Sorry.Gloeschihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10705125909506053628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70943024513392885992013-04-12T10:31:06.906-07:002013-04-12T10:31:06.906-07:00This must be some kind of record change!!
America...<i>This must be some kind of record change!!</i><br /><br /><b>American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Survey</b><br /><br />Week ending 4/10/2013<br /><br />Bullish 19.3%<br /><b>down 16.2</b><br />Neutral 26.2%<br />down 10.1<br />Bearish 54.5%<br /><b>up 26.3</b><br /><br />Long-Term Average:<br /> Bullish: 39.0%<br /> Neutral: 30.5%<br /> Bearish: 30.5%Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78798591263566130022013-04-12T07:41:06.945-07:002013-04-12T07:41:06.945-07:00With regard to Jim Paulson of Wells Capital articl...With regard to Jim Paulson of Wells Capital article about "Buy and Hold" coming back:<br /><br />“...as of the time of this writing (4/11/2013)....If you had bought the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) on October 9, 2007, {the previous market peak}and done nothing other than let dividends reinvest, you'd be up 17.1 percent today.”<br /><br />http://www.cbsnews.com/Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91381647351739102672013-04-12T07:25:09.253-07:002013-04-12T07:25:09.253-07:00That used to be a house but it was converted to co...That used to be a house but it was converted to condos a long time ago.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11611991854354709932013-04-12T04:50:30.239-07:002013-04-12T04:50:30.239-07:00Scott, Bill Gross at Pimco has called a new bull m...Scott, Bill Gross at Pimco has called a new bull market in US Treasuries, based on Japanese investors now looking abroad for higher yields. Do you think this could be as big a deal as he thinks ?<br /><br />PS: Is that house in the photo yours ?! If so, lucky you and I can see why it might be easier to be more upbeat about life, LOL!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68640909617448712552013-04-12T01:34:07.710-07:002013-04-12T01:34:07.710-07:00Yes, but the total number of employed is not as hi...Yes, but the total number of employed is not as high as before 2008, and seems glacial in its progress even towards that level. <br /><br />Something is wrong. I do not believe that 5 percent of our workforce suddenly lost its work ethic. Americans, in general, like to work. We work more hours than other Westerners, we have working couples. <br /><br />People still cannot find work. Many of my Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com