tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1339604444914467888..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Velocity as a source of growthScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76726325891537708342010-05-03T09:07:12.351-07:002010-05-03T09:07:12.351-07:00John: 3-4% growth is firmly in the "modest gr...John: 3-4% growth is firmly in the "modest growth" range given how deep the recent recession was. Growth of that sort will not result in a significant or quick decline in the unemployment rate, and high unemployment will likely make the Fed reluctant to lower rates. But I do believe that 3-4% is stronger than the market and the Fed are expecting, so if this kind of growth persists, thenScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19877124854787621232010-05-02T14:42:57.266-07:002010-05-02T14:42:57.266-07:00John-
I realize you asked for John's opinion ...John-<br /><br />I realize you asked for John's opinion and not mine, but I never let a detail like that stop me from sticking my nose in.<br /><br />I think you are spot on. Ain't no inflation out there. Deflationary shock waves are still wending their way through the economy, including lower pay and rents. Worker productivity rising nicely. <br /><br />Businesses in America now Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17004629817929575012010-05-02T11:51:48.531-07:002010-05-02T11:51:48.531-07:00Scott,
There is a big difference to me between 3 ...Scott,<br /><br />There is a big difference to me between 3 and 4 percent. I am afraid that consumer and government deleveraging might keep it at the low end of that range while increasing velocity and pent up demand could push it to the upper end or higher. Right now I am leaning toward the lower end - did not the first quarter come it around 3.2%? That is not going to get the unemployment rate Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13453596516922671532010-05-02T11:34:42.253-07:002010-05-02T11:34:42.253-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84424446926107657362010-05-02T01:17:11.067-07:002010-05-02T01:17:11.067-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57338832005409286762010-05-01T12:47:08.930-07:002010-05-01T12:47:08.930-07:00GDP/M2 times Nonfarm payrolls
bounced off its lowe...GDP/M2 times Nonfarm payrolls<br />bounced off its lowest low since<br />1994....throw job growth into <br />the increase in velocity ( velocity<br />was 1.86 before Lehman)and you have<br />growth.....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85576480434804078982010-05-01T11:21:45.122-07:002010-05-01T11:21:45.122-07:00Good outlook. I hope for 4 percent growth, for sev...Good outlook. I hope for 4 percent growth, for several years. There is slack galore in this economy. <br /><br />I can see interest rates near zero for a long time. You wanna buy Greek debt? Too much capital out there, not enough places to call home. US Treasuries are the parking spot of choice. <br /><br /><br />You might say, "Why save at zero?" <br /><br />Two reasons: 1) If youBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48912460484567103182010-05-01T01:09:12.780-07:002010-05-01T01:09:12.780-07:00Mr. Grannis:
Re: increase in velocity and penned ...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />Re: increase in velocity and penned up demand.<br /><br />(1) going back to the recent increase in private passenger vehicle sales as related to the “scrap rate” of private passenger vehicles exceeding new production for the past 18 months or so (creating penned up demand), <br /><br />(2) considering “cash” or cash equivalents on the side lines,<br /><br />(3) consideringW.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.com