tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post12599775778817013..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: ISM: service sector still growingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45635804094675705952010-07-07T08:41:38.336-07:002010-07-07T08:41:38.336-07:00Elliot wave, shmelliot wave. They've got enou...Elliot wave, shmelliot wave. They've got enough indicators and waves within waves to explain the second coming. Prechtor is the proverbial broken clock IMO.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14822528728482680152010-07-07T06:10:28.926-07:002010-07-07T06:10:28.926-07:00Jeff,
Scott's everyday body of work is one of...Jeff,<br /><br />Scott's everyday body of work is one of the best ways I know to keep things in perspective. Markets can and do disconnect from economic fundamentals for periods of time but ultimately will respond to them. The data are clearly pointing to economic expansion. <br /><br />It also helps to keep in mind that there are many agendas at work and the media panders to nearly all of Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7463697312424198172010-07-06T10:33:11.077-07:002010-07-06T10:33:11.077-07:00Dr. McKiiben: Then we need a cheap dollar.
I nev...Dr. McKiiben: Then we need a cheap dollar. <br /><br />I never understood the idea that the dollar should be expensive. Crimps exports, hurts domestic growth. Discourages foreign investment in US assets. <br /><br />The economy seems to be faltering now. Need aggressive actions by the Fed. Qualitative easing, the creation of money ex nihilo is needed. This is a chance for monetarists to show Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88756194472587371422010-07-06T10:14:13.190-07:002010-07-06T10:14:13.190-07:00Mark: I think it's premature to use the ECRI W...Mark: I think it's premature to use the ECRI WLI to predict a recession, and I think the folks at ECRI agree. All of the indicators I watch continue to say we are in the early stages of a recovery, and pretty typically so. The only thing that stands out is that this recovery is pretty mild given the depths of the preceding recession.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66055260098663461552010-07-06T10:02:03.785-07:002010-07-06T10:02:03.785-07:00Scott,
What's your opinion of the ECRI leading...Scott,<br />What's your opinion of the ECRI leading economic indicators? They have turned decidedly downward, and I'm hearing lots of pros reference it as leading ISM data.<br />Thanks,<br />MarkMark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59207831880841730052010-07-06T09:35:25.949-07:002010-07-06T09:35:25.949-07:00Jeff: drawing parallels between now and the 1930s ...Jeff: drawing parallels between now and the 1930s is a very risky proposition. So many things are different, starting with the fact that the Fed is doing the exact opposite today of what it did back then: they are working hard to expand the money supply today whereas they tightened supply back then. There are parallels between Obama's expansive government policies and FDR, but the pushback Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89970401967740197782010-07-06T09:31:36.130-07:002010-07-06T09:31:36.130-07:00brodero: thanks, that is indeed a nice fit, and it...brodero: thanks, that is indeed a nice fit, and it squares with the observation that the ISM indices do a pretty good job of tracking growth in the overall economy. The manufacturing index is pointing to 4-5% GDP growth for example. Lots of things are pointing to growth that is much stronger than the market seems to be expecting, and that's quite bullish.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84484191114776007352010-07-06T09:11:22.835-07:002010-07-06T09:11:22.835-07:00Scott:
I know your view on this....but when I her...Scott:<br /><br />I know your view on this....but when I here folks over the weekend stating the Dow trading pattern is looking similar to the 1930's where we experience an extreme upturn over the initial downturn and then turned down again...how do you view this. My thought is that our economy and financial system is much different than in the 30's, but yet the similarities are also Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79492106392195877352010-07-06T08:59:49.765-07:002010-07-06T08:59:49.765-07:005 month moving average of Business Activity is now...5 month moving average of Business Activity is now above 58....which corresponds well with<br />150 to 200,000 private payroll growth....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60143118352782401562010-07-06T08:52:18.162-07:002010-07-06T08:52:18.162-07:00My data is showing that private services are leadi...My data is showing that private services are leading US exports in growth. Although private service exports fill a relatively small proportion of US total exports, the growth remains impressive nonetheless. More at:<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2010/07/us-private-service-exports-on-rise.html<br /><br />Thank you for the opportunity to comment...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com