tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post121098540391002201..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Thoughts on why real growth has been disappointingly slowScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63938578034837343572012-04-30T11:27:06.579-07:002012-04-30T11:27:06.579-07:00I think most people look at CorpProfits/GDP and ar...I think most people look at CorpProfits/GDP and are worried that CP will drop to be more like normal. But maybe this is a reverse indicator, that it shows how much GDP can expand, the CP is showing the true story.NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27180232414112032302012-04-30T09:31:20.939-07:002012-04-30T09:31:20.939-07:00Fiat money originates from CB's. Governments s...Fiat money originates from CB's. Governments spend more money than recouped via taxation. Where do you think this ability comes from? If the United States had a metal based monetary system, we could eliminate this problem altogether. <br /><br />Additionally, not only can the Fed NOT create real wealth, they can destroy it which is what I believe is the problem. If you reduce the quality of Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66700720747895599392012-04-30T08:01:46.306-07:002012-04-30T08:01:46.306-07:00Those that tax and spend, will find themselves at ...Those that tax and spend, will find themselves at an end.<br /><br />http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/ny_state_of_decline_tbK1BlfnsBcHI9oeO9r4lKHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64350039768147123112012-04-30T03:12:16.089-07:002012-04-30T03:12:16.089-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54879999596014528032012-04-30T02:19:34.922-07:002012-04-30T02:19:34.922-07:00Look at three states which have openly embraced th...Look at three states which have openly embraced the socialist order and in the past, where leaders in GNP Growth and employment.<br /><br />The past decade has yielded the following, in terms of job growth.<br /><br />Calif +300,000, 11% unemployment<br />NY +102,000, 8.5% unemployment<br />Ill. -4,000 8.8% unemployment<br /><br />In the meanwhile, Texas has added more jobs than all three Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90048117632981829942012-04-29T07:29:04.274-07:002012-04-29T07:29:04.274-07:00This chart demonstrates ever declining GNP rates s...This chart demonstrates ever declining GNP rates since 1950 or 1959 for that matter...<br /><br />The Great War on Free Enterprise:<br /><br />http://dshort.com/charts/GDP-overview.html?GDP-annual-since-1930Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50092833359255933952012-04-29T07:08:00.598-07:002012-04-29T07:08:00.598-07:00Ben Jamin, I realize the point you are making.
Th...Ben Jamin, I realize the point you are making.<br /><br />The effects of salaries as a percent of spending is highest at the paroch ial level... Score 1/2 point for, Sir Ben Jamin.<br /><br />On the Federal level, it is the opposite, accounting for a minority of the department spending budget.<br /><br />Score 1/2 point for me and a declared draw!<br /><br />Hear is my source:<br /><br />http://Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25945914508178671272012-04-29T07:02:46.736-07:002012-04-29T07:02:46.736-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90989319197274217652012-04-28T11:20:27.066-07:002012-04-28T11:20:27.066-07:00Schaeffer's Investor Intelligence
Date____%Bu...<b>Schaeffer's Investor Intelligence</b><br /><br />Date____%Bulls__%Bears<br /><br />04/25....41.9....23.7<br />04/18....44.1....23.7<br />04/11....48.4....21.5<br />04/04....52.7....21.5Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69286183716201003882012-04-28T11:17:17.386-07:002012-04-28T11:17:17.386-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15855484400160021502012-04-28T11:10:24.490-07:002012-04-28T11:10:24.490-07:00Lipper US Funds Flows Date
Q1 Equity Fund Inflows...<b>Lipper US Funds Flows Date</b><br /><br /><b>Q1</b> Equity Fund Inflows $33.5 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $105.2 Bil<br /><br />xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$2.1 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $90.8 Bil<br /><br /><b>March</b> Equity Fund Inflows $7 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $34.7 Bil<br /><br />xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$2 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $31.9 Bil<br /><br />Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53377690893196111762012-04-28T09:20:25.610-07:002012-04-28T09:20:25.610-07:00Great post Scott, really enjoy all the posts.
Ove...Great post Scott, really enjoy all the posts.<br /><br />Over on Mish's blog he concludes last 10yrs GDP growth has been 1.7%. I think your point of the crowding out effect of the Fed. Govt. has caused this. Not to mention the associated increase in compliance costs.<br /><br />To bring it local, we had a little cottage business here in SoCal, and over the years the increase in fees, Steve Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13432588336315831351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16047641931544414382012-04-28T08:41:43.938-07:002012-04-28T08:41:43.938-07:00OECD: Composite Leading Indicators Point to Potent...<b>OECD: Composite Leading Indicators Point to Potential Turning Point</b><br /><br /><b> Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ) composite leading indicators point to potential turning point in economic activity in the Euro area and regained momentum in other major economies</b><br /><br />04/10/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35510989518283952552012-04-28T00:55:06.444-07:002012-04-28T00:55:06.444-07:00The ratio of postponable purchases to government c...The ratio of postponable purchases to government consumption is .925%...<br />this is ratio is well below the excess point...The GDP report had a good composition of rising postponable purchases with flat government consumption expenditures...this is not a recessionary trajectorybroderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3127820476563229652012-04-28T00:04:24.686-07:002012-04-28T00:04:24.686-07:00The durable goods component of GDP is
as of the 1q...The durable goods component of GDP is<br />as of the 1q 2012 at 8% of GDP. Of the 11 recessions that have occured in the last 65 years all except 1 had<br />this number above 9% first...we are still in the early stages of an upswing in the business cycle.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49267046701906523232012-04-27T19:56:23.036-07:002012-04-27T19:56:23.036-07:00Marmico and John-
Money is fungible so you are bei...Marmico and John-<br />Money is fungible so you are being too cute by half in demanding empirics to question SG's "sources and uses" contention the the government has spend in advance all corporate profits. Nobel economist William Vickery advocated massive deficit spending - even more that we are seeing at the hands of the Lightworker - in order to "recycle savings" of Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36735576787500239452012-04-27T14:31:56.782-07:002012-04-27T14:31:56.782-07:00Hans-
Interesting question.
Social Security has ...Hans-<br /><br />Interesting question.<br /><br />Social Security has a small staff, but a huge budget---but mostly it collects money and disburses it. Not a true parasite, just a structural impediment.<br /><br />Department of Defense sucks money into its black hole---eating up employees, resources, taxes. Produces nothing of value, economically.<br /><br />So, I would answer the size of Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78624980453871820862012-04-27T14:17:29.061-07:002012-04-27T14:17:29.061-07:00"So on a "sources and uses of funds"..."So on a "sources and uses of funds" basis, the government has effectively used all corporate profits to fund its spending."<br /><br />I think you need to explain that one.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58462275647423456432012-04-27T11:42:09.753-07:002012-04-27T11:42:09.753-07:00Ben Jamin, seriously what matters most, a departme...Ben Jamin, seriously what matters most, a department's total budget or it's employment roster?Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2132410312548871472012-04-27T11:27:26.138-07:002012-04-27T11:27:26.138-07:00Milton Friedman, in similar conditions, advised Ja...Milton Friedman, in similar conditions, advised Japan to print a lot of money---yes, money cannot create growth. It can breath life into an economy asphyxiating from lack of same. <br /><br />If you read this, obviously the Reaganauts thought Volcker, and thus monetary policy, was retarding growth---so much so, they wanted to get Fed policy under the control of the White House. They actually Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53838353772982723262012-04-27T11:26:46.098-07:002012-04-27T11:26:46.098-07:00So on a "sources and uses of funds" basi...<i>So on a "sources and uses of funds" basis, the government has effectively used all corporate profits to fund its spending.</i><br /><br />Do you have any empirics to support that ridiculous statement?<br /><br /> Back out the ARRA stimpack, and <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=FGEXPND&scale=Left&range=10yrs&cosd=2002-01-01&coedmarmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16848215701566715802012-04-27T11:09:58.698-07:002012-04-27T11:09:58.698-07:00The James Montier piece is excellent. Government d...The James Montier piece is excellent. Government deficits, mostly in the form of transfer payments, increased household income feeding into corporate income. <br /><br />Actual government spending on goods and services (not transfers) has been declining since 2010.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=GCEC96Isaachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07678196909182067800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73219767875120038382012-04-27T10:10:52.237-07:002012-04-27T10:10:52.237-07:00Is it clear that the government has "used cor...Is it clear that the government has "used corporate profits to fund spending"? Perhaps it is completely the opposite way with "the stand-out engine of corporate profits of late having been the fiscal deficit". <br /><br />That is the view that James Montier of GMO takes. You can read more here http://pragcap.com/james-montier-the-risk-to-corporate-profits<br /><br />What do your Sameerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05236403068557096718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2047948041618226242012-04-27T10:08:43.628-07:002012-04-27T10:08:43.628-07:00Table 1.5.2.
"Housing and utilities" su...Table 1.5.2.<br /><br />"Housing and utilities" subtracted 0.41% from Q4 GDP, and 0.23% from Q1 GDP.<br /><br />If we get a heat wave in the spring and summer, the economy will appear to be booming!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80769150506752509932012-04-27T09:55:04.901-07:002012-04-27T09:55:04.901-07:00" I see as collusion among the banking cartel..." I see as collusion among the banking cartel to hold REO's off the MLS and clear excess supply."<br /><br />That "collusion" if there even is one, comes at a cost of holding and maintaining assets which are still likely to sell for less...Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.com