tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1003571332873748702..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Worrying about rising confidenceScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84230716036176290982018-11-02T03:34:40.835-07:002018-11-02T03:34:40.835-07:00Looking great work dear. I really appreciated to y...Looking great work dear. I really appreciated to you on this quality work. Nice post!! this tips may help me for the future.<br /><a href="https://blog.mindvalley.com/lack-of-confidence/" rel="nofollow">https://blog.mindvalley.com/lack-of-confidence/</a>Mindvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07258228697025638864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84650286340824307382018-01-23T22:44:14.904-08:002018-01-23T22:44:14.904-08:00Yes, Im excited. There's a lot to be excited ...Yes, Im excited. There's a lot to be excited about these days! <br />This is how its supposed to feel in America.<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88209707953683343162018-01-23T05:42:09.769-08:002018-01-23T05:42:09.769-08:00Johnny Bee Dawg,
Are you excited?!!??!
Johnny Bee Dawg, <br />Are you excited?!!??!<br /><br />WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73544326545861532712018-01-17T21:01:06.506-08:002018-01-17T21:01:06.506-08:00Lordy, the comments section is mind blowing.
Seem...Lordy, the comments section is mind blowing.<br /><br />Seems to me the economy is just starting up. Lots and lots of pent up demand that could last for as many years as we've been throttled. Americans got tired of losing during the previous 8 years with weak growth. Productive people are ready to win for a while.<br />Gosh...we may even hit 3% growth! Look at all the disposable income vsJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45128369662800649362018-01-16T04:44:50.768-08:002018-01-16T04:44:50.768-08:00One further point; listening to bears like Cliff (...One further point; listening to bears like Cliff (or God forbid John Hussman) not only puts you in a spot to waste $ attempting to time the market, you will also pay more tax. It is the height of arrogance to believe you have some model that can beat buy/hold. Sounds cool, though. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21784110852690427042018-01-16T00:52:21.885-08:002018-01-16T00:52:21.885-08:00No one can predict the market. Never seen it in 35...No one can predict the market. Never seen it in 35 yrs in the business. Problem is you need to be right repeatedly. Anyone who believes they can is delusional. That said, over time stocks go up. Fading this trend is stupid. Simple as that. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48492987161805563492018-01-15T18:35:29.842-08:002018-01-15T18:35:29.842-08:00The Cliff Claven of Finance offers some interestin...The Cliff Claven of Finance offers some interesting data which I take based on his closing comment is presumed to be contrary to the presentation from Scott Grannis. I'm not so sure. First the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index only goes back to 2010 and does not yet demonstrate any forecasting value. Granted, the Cliff's conclusion is right. TD Ameritrade retail customers are the mostWealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91226250773245914732018-01-13T08:22:45.044-08:002018-01-13T08:22:45.044-08:00Re constraints on the supply of labor. It's al...Re constraints on the supply of labor. It's all about incentives. Since the end of 2007 (just before the Great Recession), the US economy has created 9 million new jobs. That represents a meager 6.5% expansion of the workforce in the span of 10 years. Yes, it's been a miserably slow and weak recovery. But in that same period, the labor force participation rate (the number of people Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24668783188689846312018-01-13T04:15:27.993-08:002018-01-13T04:15:27.993-08:00Re:capacity constrains in labour space. Here in EU...Re:capacity constrains in labour space. Here in EU, the same story builds up. Anecdotally, Polands last labour pool, i.e. emmigrants from Ukraine,has recently dried up. German construction sector suffers lack of workforce too. So, the point is that it will be easier to rise salaries in US that one can expect, as others do the same. <br />US has also other vital advantage, it can become a digital Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14571686770721617612018-01-12T18:33:09.954-08:002018-01-12T18:33:09.954-08:00Jeez Cliff. You are a depressing guy.
Stay inves...Jeez Cliff. You are a depressing guy.<br /><br />Stay invested till death.<br /><br />No big deal what happens in between.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11157670609749506992018-01-12T13:03:30.334-08:002018-01-12T13:03:30.334-08:00- High stock valuations continue.
- Investor sen...- High stock valuations continue. <br /><br />- Investor sentiment now high too:<br />Individuals have an unusually <br />high percentage of stocks, <br />and unusually low percentage <br />of cash, in their portfolios. <br /><br />- TD Ameritrade’s <br />Investor Movement Index <br />set a record in December 2017:<br />Clients had more exposure <br />to the stock market<br />than ever before.<brThe Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71657668269129088972018-01-12T06:07:36.093-08:002018-01-12T06:07:36.093-08:00We cannot have systemic CPI inflation without wage...We cannot have systemic CPI inflation without wage inflation and we are already seeing signs of it. Many corporations have announced pay raises because of tax reform. I love it. This massive "tax cut for the rich" has already started trickling down to the lunch bucket crowd. That's great. But we need to see improved productivity along with it or we will have wage inflation that WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47066246198665752662018-01-11T18:41:05.068-08:002018-01-11T18:41:05.068-08:00Scott;
Thank-you, Thank-you, Thank-you.
This is ...Scott;<br /><br />Thank-you, Thank-you, Thank-you.<br /><br />This is the most impressive and excellent analysis ever. It really is the best that I've seen (so far). Suspect that you are largely correct and that we are about to see some huge changes and not just this year, but for several to come. <br /><br />Chart #5 in particular: Money Demand M2 as a % of Nominal GDP is the real eye Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01390035459036380103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85961347418446876712018-01-11T16:59:03.752-08:002018-01-11T16:59:03.752-08:00Great post, love the numbered charts.
Not much t...Great post, love the numbered charts.<br /><br /> Not much talked about, but President Trump will just about re-make the FOMC this year--many vacancies.<br /><br /> Okay so we know large federal budget deficits are baked into the cake.<br /><br /> And we know Trump will remake the FOMC.<br /><br />So why worry?<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40970840834325567422018-01-11T13:23:08.911-08:002018-01-11T13:23:08.911-08:00Rich: You overlook some important principles. One:...Rich: You overlook some important principles. One: The ideal tax system has no deductions at all, because that allows marginal tax rates to be as low as possible. Deductions distort economic activity and must be paid for by higher marginal tax rates on those not favored by deductions. Two: high-tax states such as California can quite easily avoid the "problem" you complain about by Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48247588785947906142018-01-11T11:59:25.318-08:002018-01-11T11:59:25.318-08:00You some very good points, but the recent “tax ref...You some very good points, but the recent “tax reform” also limits the deductibility of property tax and state income tax, disproportionately impacting States that are responsible for a large part of US economic engine. I hope it will be repealed in the next Congress. Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12549238790081597160noreply@blogger.com