Thursday, July 3, 2025

The June jobs report was not strong


Today's June jobs report is being touted as strong enough to put any chance of a Fed ease on hold. That's silly, in my view. Putting things in the proper perspective, today's job report was one more in a year's worth of mediocre numbers. Private sector jobs (the ones that really count) have been growing at a 1% rate for over a year, which is consistent with real GDP growth of about 2%, a bit less than we've seen since 2010. Nothing in this report should give the Fed a reason to keep monetary policy tight.