tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post944866896189120990..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Some thoughts before heading out into the wildScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-834770816056022122020-06-10T03:17:52.016-07:002020-06-10T03:17:52.016-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Rishavhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17943448367042005682noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72362977492273879352010-07-29T13:59:00.852-07:002010-07-29T13:59:00.852-07:00John-
Thanks for pointing out that St. Louis Fed ...John-<br /><br />Thanks for pointing out that St. Louis Fed piece---very important. <br /><br />Public Library: Yes, I have "gone over to the other side" in terms of QE. I say go for it.<br /><br />We obviously cannot engage in much more deficit spending. We are in a liquidity trap. Yes, Obama should be more pro-business, and for that matter he should have exited Iraqistan pronto.<br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59824707960033130162010-07-29T13:48:10.830-07:002010-07-29T13:48:10.830-07:00Public,
My approach to the issue of the Fed is en...Public,<br /><br />My approach to the issue of the Fed is entirely what they are LIKELY to do and its effects on markets in the near term. I have been of the opinion that the Fed would remain on 'hold' with little to no further action prior to the elections. I still see this as the most likely scenario. The St. Louis Fed's QE paper seems to me to be a 'trial balloon' intended Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90164097859991761432010-07-29T11:54:08.248-07:002010-07-29T11:54:08.248-07:00The Fed should already be normalizing rates and ge...The Fed should already be normalizing rates and getting out of the way. Not embarking on a QE2 disaster.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83117150833425088082010-07-29T11:38:21.079-07:002010-07-29T11:38:21.079-07:00Public Library-
Japan? I wish we could live so w...Public Library-<br /><br />Japan? I wish we could live so well. 3 percent unemployment, very low crime, very advanced civilization. They make us look like a Third World Banana Republic. <br /><br />Grannis always hints we are Argentina-bound. Maybe.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78680071269859937602010-07-29T11:20:27.412-07:002010-07-29T11:20:27.412-07:00John,
I have said form the beginning we should lo...John,<br /><br />I have said form the beginning we should look no further than Japan for a glimpse of what our future will partially look like. <br /><br />However, I 100% disagree with the Feds conclusion QE is the necessary step. It only perpetuates the mal-investment and prolongs the inevitable. <br /><br />Sadly, they will look to do more rather than less when it is less that will heal us Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2945858667165314602010-07-29T11:15:23.521-07:002010-07-29T11:15:23.521-07:00Benj,
Agreed. However, Those are all symptoms of ...Benj,<br /><br />Agreed. However, Those are all symptoms of the larger fallacy of deficits and debt do not matter.<br /><br />Problem for most people is, their life blood and models rely on the inevitable not happening. <br /><br />The repercussions of all of it will come home to roost one day.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27009891121569025482010-07-29T10:25:08.822-07:002010-07-29T10:25:08.822-07:00Public Library-
I agree with your larger sentimen...Public Library-<br /><br />I agree with your larger sentiment, but your expression "military spending is a drop in the bucket: exemplifies what is wrong with America.<br /><br />Every interest group think the spending they like, or the tax cuts they like, or the regulations they like, are not the problem. It is all those other regs and taxes that are the real problem.<br /><br />Military Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13803425554869442722010-07-29T09:38:20.699-07:002010-07-29T09:38:20.699-07:00Benj,
St Louis Fed presidend is out with a resear...Benj,<br /><br />St Louis Fed presidend is out with a research paper that seems to be right up your alley. <br /><br />http://www.stlouisfed.org<br /><br />I suspect you will find it interesting.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63658133103363509242010-07-29T08:13:04.689-07:002010-07-29T08:13:04.689-07:00Back to deficits. Military is a drop in the bucket...Back to deficits. Military is a drop in the bucket compared to the grander ponzi scheme.<br /><br />Taleb has a great analogy about the non-linearity of government debt. It always errors on the side of larger and larger deficits until it finally leads to a death spiral.<br /><br />"As an analogy: You often have planes landing two hours late. In some cases, when you have volcanos, you can Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68173420909946030772010-07-28T17:52:10.862-07:002010-07-28T17:52:10.862-07:00John-
There is an interesting website, newwars.wo...John-<br /><br />There is an interesting website, newwars.wordpress.com with articles by military guys.<br /><br />They say there are two kinds of navy vessels: Submarines, and targets. <br /><br />Another joke is that in the next war, all navy ships will be submarines, either intentionally or otherwise (as in getting sunk).<br /><br />Happy reading, and watch over your tax dollars!Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5007140182078143642010-07-28T15:53:39.380-07:002010-07-28T15:53:39.380-07:00Benj,
Your points are well taken. If you and/or I...Benj,<br /><br />Your points are well taken. If you and/or I were deciding what was necessary the money spent on military preparedness would likely be different than it is. Our military has always evolved to successfully deal with the possible/probable threats we are likely to be required to face. I there is little doubt it will continue to do so. I believe there are big changes coming in all Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71039383877128852092010-07-27T17:50:42.277-07:002010-07-27T17:50:42.277-07:00John-
Enjoy your comments as always.
On navies, ...John-<br /><br />Enjoy your comments as always.<br /><br />On navies, I think times change, and they have now. Not neede for now, and maybe ever again. <br /><br />The major powers of the world--China, USA, Russia--all want open sea lanes. China is an exporter, and Russia exports oil. So who is going to shut down sea lanes? <br /><br /><br /><br />Having US Navy fleets roam the seas is like Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74796698261800718742010-07-27T15:51:52.573-07:002010-07-27T15:51:52.573-07:00Benj,
Anyone can be sucker punched once, as we w...Benj, <br /><br />Anyone can be sucker punched once, as we were at Pearl Harbor. Any navy on the planet that chooses to get into a REAL shooting fight with the US Navy will be destroyed...and they ALL know it. <br /><br />The point I was trying to make re the Navy was that global commerce is protected by America's control of the world's sea lanes. Every nation that utilizes the world'Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92009601790955680312010-07-27T15:20:38.179-07:002010-07-27T15:20:38.179-07:00China Sub Secretly Stalked U.S. Fleet
(by Bill Ger...China Sub Secretly Stalked U.S. Fleet<br />(by Bill Gertz, WashingtonTimes.com) - A Chinese submarine stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Pacific last month and surfaced within firing range of its torpedoes and missiles before being detected, The Washington Times has learned. <br /> The surprise encounter highlights China's continuing efforts to prepare for a future Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68163189902467544622010-07-27T13:17:01.448-07:002010-07-27T13:17:01.448-07:00If the enemy has submarines, you can't use shi...If the enemy has submarines, you can't use ships. If the enemy can place a missile anywhere near your fleet, you can't use ships. <br /><br />Speaking to Afghanie, obviously everything has been airlifted in. It is landlocked, although, a bit oddly, we have US Marines (part of the Navy) serving there. BTW, the Marines are mothballing amphibious assaults--too dangerous. A missile could Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25061035680314738812010-07-27T11:32:11.354-07:002010-07-27T11:32:11.354-07:00Benjamin,
I'm curious. Is there a way other ...Benjamin,<br /><br />I'm curious. Is there a way other than ships to move the huge amounts of troops, equipment, and supplies to foreign shores?randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63184486562446131042010-07-27T10:29:39.225-07:002010-07-27T10:29:39.225-07:00Public Library-
You may wish to start reading a b...Public Library-<br /><br />You may wish to start reading a blog, Money Illusion, written by Scott Sumner, a Uni.Chicago Phd, and econ prof at Bentley University.<br /><br />Sumner has all the conservative cred in the world--and he thinks the Fed needs to step up to the plate, announce a nominal GDP growth target of five percent, and move to a quantitative easing. <br /><br /><br />Normally, I Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72553378855501577672010-07-27T10:03:49.509-07:002010-07-27T10:03:49.509-07:00Benjamin,
Read this article:
http://mises.org/d...Benjamin,<br /><br />Read this article: <br /><br />http://mises.org/daily/4588<br /><br />You are dead wrong about what the Fed needs to do. The Fed needs to stop doing more of the damage is already engaged in.<br /><br />"It is therefore futile to urge banks (as various commentators including Bernanke and Krugman are doing) to lend more if real savings are not there. <br /><br />If the Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2677166049953454412010-07-27T09:32:20.124-07:002010-07-27T09:32:20.124-07:00John-
I like your optimism. I can remember the 197...John-<br />I like your optimism. I can remember the 1970s, with rising urban crime, inflation, recession, Cold War, Vietnam, oil shocks--it just got worse and worse. <br />What happened? The 1980s and 1990s were a kind of Golden Age for investors and business owners.<br /><br />Now? I think we slog through, just as we always do. <br /><br />In contrast to you, I think we need to explore a Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57451106600485541682010-07-27T06:49:37.729-07:002010-07-27T06:49:37.729-07:00John - I'm glad for my casual choice of adject...John - I'm glad for my casual choice of adjective! Thank you for elaborating so thoughtfully.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53921682755056716392010-07-26T19:25:13.246-07:002010-07-26T19:25:13.246-07:00Continued from above...
Many deride our military....Continued from above...<br /><br />Many deride our military. It is indeed costly to maintain. Yet we recieve many benefits. Our Navy controls the world's oceans. No matter whether it is a tanker leaving the Persian Gulf, a container ship enroute to Hong Kong, or a bulk carrier in the Mediterranian, its movement is guaranteed...or denied...by the US Navy. We may invade any nation (and Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87913099448762615342010-07-26T18:52:32.275-07:002010-07-26T18:52:32.275-07:00Randy,
In a post above you said I had an 'ind...Randy,<br /><br />In a post above you said I had an 'indefinable' faith in the USA. I have a few minutes this evening so I would like to 'define' a few items of 'faith' I have in America. Many will scoff at what I say but sadly it is a fact that many Americans hold a deep seated belief that America is approaching its destruction. There is no more 'American Dream' Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34479378031265691222010-07-26T15:59:26.299-07:002010-07-26T15:59:26.299-07:00Bill-
There is a moral hazard in forgiving debts, ...Bill-<br />There is a moral hazard in forgiving debts, or business contracts. <br /><br />When an AIG just walks away from its promise to insure bonds, and no one goes to prison, it makes you wonder. The corporate shield is mighty--do anything you want, just do it as a corporation. <br /><br />That said, if the nation is overleveraged, we gotta do something besides collapsing. I do not regard Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43818684892308996622010-07-26T15:50:16.802-07:002010-07-26T15:50:16.802-07:00And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtor...And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com