tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post9208678502602071436..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: QE2 is not only unnecessary but foolish (cont.)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62017267557017114532010-10-15T04:17:30.785-07:002010-10-15T04:17:30.785-07:00Keynesian government deficit spending and QE are t...Keynesian government deficit spending and QE are theories that were developed in low or no debt environments. Simultaneous deployment of each exclusive theory was not something either theory took into major account.<br /><br />Simultaneous deployment of both theories, in an advanced economy with moderate to high debt, was Japan in the early 2000’s. Japan remains in a 20 year recession.<br /><brW.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12528392395926183782010-10-14T17:55:21.819-07:002010-10-14T17:55:21.819-07:00Bill,
FWIW I am taking it as a temporary setback ...Bill,<br /><br />FWIW I am taking it as a temporary setback for the banks. It will probably delay their share price recovery until next year (not that far away now). It will take a few weeks but it will pass. <br /><br />Jamie Dimon addressed it in JPM's conference call. He said, "..the underlying stuff is accurate, so that's the key substance. We don't think there are cases withJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45732610954256344862010-10-14T17:11:09.264-07:002010-10-14T17:11:09.264-07:00Thoughts on how the foreclosure investigations wil...Thoughts on how the foreclosure investigations will impact housing prices and hence the housing recovery? It seems like this will delay market clearing of prices and prolong the housing recession.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1914265929043924712010-10-14T16:02:31.624-07:002010-10-14T16:02:31.624-07:00Scott,
Do you believe that the most effective for...Scott,<br /><br />Do you believe that the most effective form of fiscal stimulus is to extend the Bush tax cuts? <br /><br />How much do you estimate this will add to GDP for 2011? I hear that tax cuts aren't too productive when it comes to boosting aggregate demand. Interested in your take. <br /><br />By the way, I noticed the large drop in overall continuing unemployment claims across Jason and Jenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14143998074900505152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-719654169506311772010-10-14T13:08:46.266-07:002010-10-14T13:08:46.266-07:00TLT and LQD are down hard today.
Might this be t...TLT and LQD are down hard today. <br /><br />Might this be the beginning of the end of the 30 year bond bull market? Has the threat of QE2 cracked the negative psychology? What happens when the torrent of money force fed into bond funds starts LOSING value? How long will the average retail investor tolerate declining values in his bond portfolios? If he sells, where will he go with the cash? <br Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44984563372952324872010-10-14T12:55:00.347-07:002010-10-14T12:55:00.347-07:00I have yet to see evidence that shows that Japan&#...I have yet to see evidence that shows that Japan's allegedly sluggish growth rate was caused by zero inflation. I think it is far more likely that Japan's huge and growing public sector (and it's attendant deficits) is the cause of disappointing growth. I could be persuaded that the yen's long-term rising trend against virtually all other currencies is a factor behind Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58030206918800371452010-10-14T12:45:23.464-07:002010-10-14T12:45:23.464-07:00Scott Grannis-
Most economists feel we need minim...Scott Grannis-<br /><br />Most economists feel we need minimum 2 percent inflation due to wage stickiness and other problems. I also think we need some inflation to give "dutch courage" to people who invest through borrowing, especially real estate. <br /><br />Japan's experiment with zero inflation has been a disaster, and wipe-out for investors: Property and equity values fell Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15567502555931888922010-10-14T12:29:15.494-07:002010-10-14T12:29:15.494-07:00My inflation ideal would be zero, but I can live w...My inflation ideal would be zero, but I can live with the Fed's official target of 1-2%. Inflation is sinister, as it steals from the poor and the uneducated, and gives to the rich and the government.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38529208827965416362010-10-14T12:24:48.134-07:002010-10-14T12:24:48.134-07:00Love the blog but I'm curious. What is the &qu...Love the blog but I'm curious. What is the "correct" expectation for inflation? 0% (Japan for the last 20 years) or 2% (kind of the unofficial estimate of the Fed's targeting). <br /><br />I think the market is correct in increasing inflation expectations, but we were waaay below the Fed target with rates at the zero bound. Milton Friedman would say that indicates tight monetarySisyphushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16498785567024020255noreply@blogger.com