tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post9206416885563912745..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Tax reform is priced in, but not a stronger economyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89295208658382941592018-11-16T12:06:11.895-08:002018-11-16T12:06:11.895-08:00Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live...Hello Everybody,<br />My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of $250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest Dr Purva Piushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05883980841903455890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74974923515570749092017-12-17T08:25:15.413-08:002017-12-17T08:25:15.413-08:00Interesting blog. A couple counterpoints to consid...Interesting blog. A couple counterpoints to consider:<br /><br />1) Whether or not these tax policies "work", I'd imagine, is very time and situation dependent. Right now I’d think that with unemployment near historic lows and consumer confidence very high that this tax policy is a little late to the game, and any additional benefits it brings to the economy at this point will Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08779997036669440827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11968215413946717832017-12-14T13:13:56.177-08:002017-12-14T13:13:56.177-08:00Thank you, Cliff. You show it's possible to di...Thank you, Cliff. You show it's possible to disagree without becoming obnoxious, and I appreciate that. We should all, of course, hope for the best. And even those who despise Trump should hope he is successful. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38679749449938664242017-12-14T12:35:55.807-08:002017-12-14T12:35:55.807-08:00You are a very optimistic person,
who hopes for gr...You are a very optimistic person,<br />who hopes for great times ahead.<br /><br />I am a realist who observes history,<br />especially the past 10-20 years.<br /><br />I think you are overlooking demographics<br />of the US working age population that has<br />already shaved about one percentage point<br />off potential GDP growth.<br /><br />Meanwhile, it is getting too close to Christmas <br /The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20570463140004935242017-12-14T09:00:39.940-08:002017-12-14T09:00:39.940-08:00Cliff: let me respond briefly to your points.
I a...Cliff: let me respond briefly to your points.<br /><br />I am an optimist when there is reason to be optimistic. I think you're trying to argue that since economic performance has been poor (to be sure, productivity and labor force growth have been miserable), then one should be pessimistic. I'm optimistic because I think things can improve.<br /><br />Productivity has lots of room to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75555992694617590892017-12-14T07:58:44.015-08:002017-12-14T07:58:44.015-08:00Mr. Grannis:
As the eternal optimist,
you prefer ...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />As the eternal optimist,<br />you prefer to ignore recent actuals (past five years)<br />and the long term down trends,<br />of BOTH productivity growth rates,<br />and labor force growth rates.<br /><br />That is a lot of recent real data to ignore.<br /><br />You say BLS projections of labor force growth are "meaningless".<br />That claim is ridiculous.<br /><The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22668376817279114202017-12-11T18:43:49.693-08:002017-12-11T18:43:49.693-08:00Cliff: the one thing I think you are missing is th...Cliff: the one thing I think you are missing is that current productivity and labor force growth trends are not fixed nor immutable. Changes in taxes can almost certainly result in powerful dynamics that ripple throughout the economy. People and businesses definitely respond to incentives and changes in incentives. <br /><br />Cutting corporate tax rates significantly would almost certainly Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92207358390678864132017-12-11T07:51:10.418-08:002017-12-11T07:51:10.418-08:00Part 2
GRANNIS:
" ... the Washington Post ...Part 2<br /><br /><br />GRANNIS: <br />" ... the Washington Post has bought into this way of thinking in a big way with their decision to run with this chart. I'm shocked, shocked, to see that they have deployed "facts" that support the Democrats who are resolutely opposing the Republican's tax plan."<br /><br />My reply:<br />The Washington Post is a left-wing biased The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35979065248370558752017-12-11T07:50:50.584-08:002017-12-11T07:50:50.584-08:00Mr Grannis wrote the following sentences
in an ea...Mr Grannis wrote the following sentences <br />in an earlier comment here.<br /><br />"My Reply" will explain why I believe he is unreasonably bullish, <br />possibly biased by an expanding investment portfolio,<br />rather than relying on unbiased economic and demographic data.<br /><br />Summary:<br />Potential Real GDP growth rate based on past 5 years = +1%<br />Potential Real The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54910039031710179232017-12-08T08:32:55.212-08:002017-12-08T08:32:55.212-08:00US economy production is best measured by GDP chan...US economy production is best measured by GDP changes over at least one year,<br />avoiding seasonal adjustments.<br /><br />3Q 2016 to 3Q 2017 growth was almost the same as the <br />average GDP growth rate since the last recession ended.<br /><br />Claims of an economic boom are grossly overstated. <br /><br />3Q 2017 GDP (2nd revision) was up +4.2% over 3Q 2016, including inflation.<br /><br /The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29483440744521152912017-12-07T10:20:21.644-08:002017-12-07T10:20:21.644-08:00Re the corporate AMT: Yes, keeping it in was surel...Re the corporate AMT: Yes, keeping it in was surely a mistake. But getting rid of it shouldn't be that hard. Recall that total corporate income tax revenues to Treasury are only about $300 billion/year. How much of that comes from the corporate AMT? 10 or 20%? The solution is to allow the CBO-scored deficit for the whole package to increase by a tiny amount. Best solution of course would be Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9104747344505627312017-12-07T09:46:24.801-08:002017-12-07T09:46:24.801-08:00I am not sure this tax plan survives the light of ...I am not sure this tax plan survives the light of day. Did any of you notice that in their haste to get this passed the senate left in the corporate AMT.<br /><br />https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/corporate-america-is-furious-with-senate-republicans<br /><br />An excerpt:<br />Robert Murray, C.E.O. of Murray Energy Corp., angrily estimated that his company’s tax bill would increase by $60Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12616454339935658018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62863376540150334102017-12-06T23:16:39.855-08:002017-12-06T23:16:39.855-08:00Agreed, outstanding work Scott.Agreed, outstanding work Scott.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55206067163092053902017-12-06T21:13:17.129-08:002017-12-06T21:13:17.129-08:00Good Lord, this post is packed with great data poi...Good Lord, this post is packed with great data points. <br />Outstanding observations and commentary once again, SG!!Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36940419620638694092017-12-06T19:38:57.772-08:002017-12-06T19:38:57.772-08:00Do federal deficits matter?
"December Legisl...Do federal deficits matter?<br /><br />"December Legislation Could Bring Back Trillion-Dollar Deficits"---The Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget<br /><br />They say trillion-dollar red ink by fiscal 2019. <br /><br />I realize I sound like a fat lady who says, "I am 50 pounds overweight. So what does another 10 pounds matter?" but one has to wonder what a couple Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54264282085176757382017-12-06T08:26:23.784-08:002017-12-06T08:26:23.784-08:00WealthMony: Re potential GDP. The WP chart you lin...WealthMony: Re potential GDP. The WP chart you link to shows one of many possible ways of calculating how much the economy is able to grow over time without getting "overextended." The gray line which purports to represent the economy's "potential" growth path works out to an annualized increase of about 1.4%. Since the middle of 2009 the economy has actually been growing Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68866183657331870452017-12-06T08:05:59.056-08:002017-12-06T08:05:59.056-08:00As the saying goes: Good luck with that!
Not ent...As the saying goes: Good luck with that!<br /><br />Not entirely sure how you get higher growth. The US economy is at or near full employment, 60% of GDP is consumption (in one form or another). I see this as a great vehicle for Wall Street with massive asset acquisitions in the near future and massive share buyback -- I don't see massive growth in Capex -- and as for housing...well since Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47525695089975952192017-12-06T07:02:17.370-08:002017-12-06T07:02:17.370-08:00Sorry to take up space, Scott, but here's the ...Sorry to take up space, Scott, but here's the address for the graph I referenced from the Washington Post: <br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/11/29/tax-cut-proponents-promise-3-4-percent-growth-this-economic-milestone-shows-thats-nearly-impossible/?utm_term=.0afad14c4e93WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91810179553717084882017-12-06T04:34:05.737-08:002017-12-06T04:34:05.737-08:00UNKNOWN or more specifically UNNAMED (wimpy), what...UNKNOWN or more specifically UNNAMED (wimpy), what a negative and cynical perspective.<br /><br />Great work Scott, you do THE best work of any economist and are RETIRED! <br /><br />What is absolutely amazing to me is the level of bond yields. As I've said repeatedly, I've been trading bonds for over 20 years now but have NEVER seen the ostensible disconnect from yields to reality. <br /stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65876536009126805852017-12-06T03:25:56.034-08:002017-12-06T03:25:56.034-08:00Scott Grannis, has the GDP gap been closed as a ch...Scott Grannis, has the GDP gap been closed as a chart from the Washington Post would indicate? There's no way two quarters of 3% annualized growth can make up for 8 years of 2.1% growth, which is a full % below long-term trend. <br /> <br />I do not know how to copy and past the WP chart, but what it shows is a GDP @ $15 trillion just before the Great Recession, with that level being on the WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65692571921747933042017-12-05T21:38:42.822-08:002017-12-05T21:38:42.822-08:00A SHORT CHRONOLOGY:
4% UNEMPLOYMENT AND A LARGE S...A SHORT CHRONOLOGY:<br /><br />4% UNEMPLOYMENT AND A LARGE STANDING STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.<br /><br />NEW LARGE TAX CUTS WITH NO SPENDING CUTS. THROW IN A LOT OF INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING, WE LOVE THAT AT ALL TIMES.<br /><br />NEW, LARGER DEFICITS AND ADDITIONAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING.<br /><br />HIGHER INTEREST RATES (DUE TO ALL THAT BORROWING, NOT ALL THAT GROWTH).<br /><br />HIGHER VALUE OF THE bt1138https://www.blogger.com/profile/12843326237379459791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74446954934002533482017-12-05T20:04:34.139-08:002017-12-05T20:04:34.139-08:00We can hope the Fed won't make that mistake ag...We can hope the Fed won't make that mistake again (they made the mistake of overly tightening in the late 1990s and early 2000s because the economy was so strong). However, I would note that even if the Fed raises rates at a faster pace in response to a strengthening economy, it won't necessarily be bad for the equity market or for the economy. (Of course it WILL be bad for the bond Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54285864007920346612017-12-05T19:46:53.688-08:002017-12-05T19:46:53.688-08:00Another great post by Scott Grannis. I agree with ...<br />Another great post by Scott Grannis. I agree with Benj, things look mostly good. Here's how I see this situation playing out, but I hope I am wrong. We have a Fed that apparently is content with European-like 2% GDP growth. It fears inflation. After tax law changes, the economy picks up, perhaps to as high as 4%. The Fed quickly raises interest rates. The yield curve inverts and maybe WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67749508456056298472017-12-05T19:13:59.712-08:002017-12-05T19:13:59.712-08:00Alain: thanks. I’ll get around to your request soo...Alain: thanks. I’ll get around to your request soon I hope, but for the moment everything (liquidity, spreads) looks about as good as could be expected.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62930487272480062012017-12-05T17:12:38.273-08:002017-12-05T17:12:38.273-08:00What a wonderful post and I am still in euphoria o...What a wonderful post and I am still in euphoria over the numbered charts.<br /><br /> I think raising the standard deduction does increase rewards for working and thus is pro-growth. <br /><br />We will see if the Fed allows real GDP growth above recent rates...<br /><br />The regulation-socialist induced housing shortages on the West Coast will suffocate growth too...and cause inflation, Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com