tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post9049483984173384488..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: ISM indices are very bullishScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81492192718177251282010-02-02T09:19:27.131-08:002010-02-02T09:19:27.131-08:00There are several recessions going on simultaneous...There are several recessions going on simultaneously: construction, the effect of reduced wealth on consumption and inventory adjustment. Inventory adjustment is complete. Construction will not recover for five years. Consumption will remain depressed until savings are rebuilt. Micro-economic policy and uncertainty is very negative for investment so it will take much longer for consumption to Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79803125939382716142010-02-01T11:20:55.787-08:002010-02-01T11:20:55.787-08:00Would be nice to see job growth in USA.
BTW, China...Would be nice to see job growth in USA.<br />BTW, China is getting huge construction contracts from Saudi Arabia, reported today<br />China's economy growing like gangbusters, and global growth looks good.<br />We have entered a new phase--solid global GDP growth, independent of US growth. <br />Hopefully, a strong global GDP can help the USA, although I think all we export is debt.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1824769067129555622010-02-01T10:29:59.425-08:002010-02-01T10:29:59.425-08:00There were a lot of things going on the the 80-82 ...There were a lot of things going on the the 80-82 period. Very tight monetary policy that started in late 79, then Carter's credit controls that tripped up the economy in 80, then Reagan's decision to phase in tax cuts in 81 (which was later reversed). <br /><br />One thing that might justify a double dip scenario is a big increase in taxes early next year. Already the prospect of higher Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21791439386859075892010-02-01T10:18:15.841-08:002010-02-01T10:18:15.841-08:00Since the double dip in the early 80's had an ...Since the double dip in the early 80's had an inverted yield curve my<br />guess is the double dip crowd is putting its cards on a drop in demand brought on by a lack of job growth.....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14843697012905508892010-02-01T10:10:25.804-08:002010-02-01T10:10:25.804-08:00I don't understand the "double dip" ...I don't understand the "double dip" crowd. What is the reasoning behind this outlook?<br /><br />Seems like we are recovering from a near collapse. What is similar today to the last double dip, back in the early 1980s?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63204920575392996082010-02-01T09:59:21.834-08:002010-02-01T09:59:21.834-08:00The 12 month moving average of the new orders to i...The 12 month moving average of the new orders to inventories differential is now above +15....<br />we have always had positive job growth when this differential has entered this territory which has been only three times over the last 40 years....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com