tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8912614106694026479..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Markets are still pessimisticScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-539310488433321422009-12-09T18:58:47.194-08:002009-12-09T18:58:47.194-08:00Paul: and your example is an excellent example of ...Paul: and your example is an excellent example of how steep our marginal tax rates are. They are a huge disincentive to work. It's a real crime.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30017966866004097202009-12-09T14:05:14.352-08:002009-12-09T14:05:14.352-08:00Scott,
The private sector would not have access t...Scott,<br /><br />The private sector would not have access to the money because it is being generated form Obama insane monetization uncontrollable spending habits.....<br /><br />With only a $4 trillion GDP, China doesn't have the capacity to fund our deficit anymore now that we are on track to reach $2 trillion.<br /><br />The game seems to be essentially a Ponzi scheme.....unless you have alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44134838718535807022009-12-09T13:21:13.720-08:002009-12-09T13:21:13.720-08:00Wait, transfer payments? I thought it all came fro...Wait, transfer payments? I thought it all came from Obama's <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19v5Kjmc8FI" rel="nofollow">stash. </a><br /><br /><br />A friend of mine, an Obama voter 'natch, has been unemployed for about a year now. I asked him why he doesn't go get some basic job to keep from going crazy while he's looking for a job in his field. His reply was that incomePaulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843411100678811292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59758806520680960372009-12-09T11:53:28.370-08:002009-12-09T11:53:28.370-08:00Also, many (or most) of the people currently recei...Also, many (or most) of the people currently receiving government transfer payments are fully capable of working and would do so if they did not receive said monies. So, cutting them off should boost economic activity as they would then be forced to go out and participate in the private sector.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05145490918994594519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20295916450951232582009-12-09T08:53:54.930-08:002009-12-09T08:53:54.930-08:00nobody knows what the multiplier really is. My gue...nobody knows what the multiplier really is. My guess is that it is well below 1. So a reduction in government spending on non-productive things like transfer payments would actually boost GDP because the money would be used by the private sector more productively.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46277352077676502872009-12-09T06:13:55.251-08:002009-12-09T06:13:55.251-08:00alstry,
That government deficit spending in the f...alstry,<br /><br />That government deficit spending in the form of foodstamps/welfare finds its way to final sales is a foregone conclusion. If we were so lucky as to have someone in a position of power that would reduce those numbers would be ultimately beneficial. But it would have to been done incrementally so as to put no one in a beggers line. Hence the impact to GDP would be minimal. JMHOBobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13319603924249084182009-12-09T01:13:27.050-08:002009-12-09T01:13:27.050-08:00Year GDP-US Welfare-total
1994 7072.2 234.25
1995 ...Year GDP-US Welfare-total<br />1994 7072.2 234.25<br />1995 7397.7 247.23<br />1996 7816.9 247.44<br />1997 8304.3 249.35<br />1998 8679.66 244.16<br />1999 9201.14 253.88<br />2000 9749.1 267.66<br />2001 10058.2 290.16<br />2002 10398.4 320.34<br />2003 10886.2 390.56<br />2004 11607 380.28<br />2005 12339 404.04<br />2006 13090.8 411.39<br />2007 13715.7 414.86<br />2008 14165.6 477.25<br />MadTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993644388485131972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71244665246436284722009-12-09T01:10:57.627-08:002009-12-09T01:10:57.627-08:00Government spending as a percentage of GDP
Year ...Government spending as a percentage of GDP<br /><br />Year Spend(Billions) %<br /><br />2008 $14165.6 37.40<br />2009 $14240.2 45.34<br />2010 $14728.8 42.11MadTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993644388485131972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62006132605644330672009-12-08T20:46:55.463-08:002009-12-08T20:46:55.463-08:00I agree....it would be great for the nation if we ...I agree....it would be great for the nation if we operated off of a balanced budget.<br /><br />But if we stopped handing out 40,000,000 food stamps every month....wouldn't there be 40,000,000 million people standing in food lines that the private sector would have to feed.?<br /><br />In your opinion, what would be the reduction in GDP from the government cutting $1.4 Trillion of deficit alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77310617171273875872009-12-08T18:13:27.371-08:002009-12-08T18:13:27.371-08:00alstry: if the days of massive deficits were comin...alstry: if the days of massive deficits were coming to an end, and especially if that involved serious reductions in government transfer payments, that would be about the most bullish thing for the markets that I could hope for.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41201131062801389522009-12-08T18:01:43.134-08:002009-12-08T18:01:43.134-08:00Scott,
What percentage of S&P revenues are si...Scott,<br /><br />What percentage of S&P revenues are simply based on government payments....entitlement and otherwise.<br /><br />For example, what percentage of WalMart's sales comes from the 40,000,000 food stamp recipients, the 16,000,000 unemployment recipients, the drug sales to medicare and medicaid recipients plus other government based spend????<br /><br />Do you think that the alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62091973179180044652009-12-08T17:45:01.444-08:002009-12-08T17:45:01.444-08:00Very unlikely.Very unlikely.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53008999615695706232009-12-08T17:20:07.586-08:002009-12-08T17:20:07.586-08:00Scott,
How likely do you think it is that the rat...Scott,<br /><br />How likely do you think it is that the rating agencies will downgrade US debt or that China will pull its money out of the US?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64458449580723124582009-12-08T11:41:13.739-08:002009-12-08T11:41:13.739-08:00T-bills are essentially trading at a zero yield. T...T-bills are essentially trading at a zero yield. There are lots of possible explanations for this, but the ones that carry the most weight for me are these:<br /><br />1) the market is very, very concerned about a variety of things: a double-dip recession, a collapse of the commercial real estate market, a second wave of home mortgage defaults, the impact of higher taxes, and a general deflation.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12998846503922989102009-12-08T11:19:32.475-08:002009-12-08T11:19:32.475-08:00Scott, what is happening in the 90 day treasury gi...Scott, what is happening in the 90 day treasury given that its yield continues to be significantly lower than the 30 day? Thanks in advance.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.com