tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8849890965609599916..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Yield curve continues to suggest growthScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76047130338352915422011-10-21T11:08:26.976-07:002011-10-21T11:08:26.976-07:00Money goes to the bonds with the best risk adjuste...Money goes to the bonds with the best risk adjusted after tax after inflation return.<br /><br />That is U.S.T's right now and for the indeterminate future.<br /><br />Or go buy the Italian 10year if you'd like high nominal yields with high risk.<br /><br />If you didn't go long stocks yet, you have to figure out the criteria where you can place your orders. Your stop loss is simply Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83802038878373880192011-10-21T08:16:46.836-07:002011-10-21T08:16:46.836-07:00The Fed is trying to manipulate the bond market, t...The Fed is trying to manipulate the bond market, to be sure, so it's possible the yield curve could be sending false signals. But I am of the belief that while the Fed can absolutely control short-term interest rates, it has very little control over the yield curve from 10 years out. That's because longer term interest rates are determined by inflation fundamentals and market expectationsScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72919576793608531122011-10-20T21:02:06.161-07:002011-10-20T21:02:06.161-07:00Scott, thanks for the blog, I'm a regular read...Scott, thanks for the blog, I'm a regular reader, its great. One question for you: how useful is the yield curve today as a measure of economic activity, or future indicator of, with so much Fed intervention (QE, Twist, expectations of more)?PerformanceSpeaksForItselfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02710385857829942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30159706150630387872011-10-20T17:23:56.853-07:002011-10-20T17:23:56.853-07:00Not sure why the Fed is satisfied with such glacia...Not sure why the Fed is satisfied with such glacial growth, given the huge untapped potential in our national infrastructure, people, and private sector. <br /><br />Output could rise by 15-20 percent without us hardly breaking a sweat.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56873142524147442162011-10-20T16:20:02.354-07:002011-10-20T16:20:02.354-07:00ECRI said a new recession is coming. Their batting...ECRI said a new recession is coming. Their batting average is excellent.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02798277240041244209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47960016617398206312011-10-20T15:00:18.073-07:002011-10-20T15:00:18.073-07:00Let me ask you: if a recession is always preceded ...Let me ask you: if a recession is always preceded by inverted yield curve, why could not the Fed always keep the Fed fund rate at zero? That way the yield curve will be upward sloping and we will never have recessions. Inflation may be high at times but at least the economy will always grow. I wish monetary policy was that easy.Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13215192153673725162011-10-20T14:18:48.847-07:002011-10-20T14:18:48.847-07:00For what it's worth, the New York Fed treasury...For what it's worth, the New York Fed treasury model shows the chances of a recession through September 2012 at a bit more than 3%.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com