tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8796297217871413422..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: This is not deflationScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65617144629099089472008-12-10T19:16:00.000-08:002008-12-10T19:16:00.000-08:00Speak: financial deleveraging undoubtedly played a...Speak: financial deleveraging undoubtedly played a role in the collapse of oil and most other commodities. But you have to give some credit also to the economic slowdown and to what must have been a huge increase in the world's ability to produce these commodities--which in turn was a function of the dramatic price increases in recent years. Prices could well increase again in the future, but notScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34995530691162930952008-12-10T19:08:00.000-08:002008-12-10T19:08:00.000-08:00Looking at those charts, its easy to imagine oil g...Looking at those charts, its easy to imagine oil going back beyond $150. The peak last year was a long time in the making, and it seems most reasonably explained as an unrolling of Peak Oil. This year's sudden drop, on the other hand, looks like it might be most usefully explained as a financial deleveraging as all of the oil players unwound at once.SpeakToMehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04512373918759007718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80805197883242745322008-12-10T08:33:00.000-08:002008-12-10T08:33:00.000-08:00Mark: Interesting suggestion. My data on housing i...Mark: Interesting suggestion. My data on housing is limited to the OFHEO series which only goes back to 1978. Comparing that to gold I see that housing was cheapest relative to gold in 1980, then it peaked at the end of 2000, then fell by half to today's level. Housing has gotten relatively cheap compared to gold in recent years because gold has risen while housing prices have been falling. OtherScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41107581577442701452008-12-10T06:15:00.000-08:002008-12-10T06:15:00.000-08:00Hi Scott,Do you happen to have a chart that shows ...Hi Scott,<BR/>Do you happen to have a chart that shows the price of USA housing in gold? I think that would be an interesting way to gauge where we stand in historical terms since housing is at the epicenter of the current crisis.<BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MarkMark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.com