tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8602248906630852356..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: A non-fatal Fed mistakeScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47174493310437839922019-08-10T08:21:54.130-07:002019-08-10T08:21:54.130-07:00Same thing I’ve been saying. The Fed screwed up a...Same thing I’ve been saying. The Fed screwed up and the curve is screaming they’re too tight.<br />Yellin was the culprit in Jan 2018. Powell crashed it again during his Q&A on Fed day (down nearly 500 in 15 minutes) when he indicated a “one and done” attitude.<br />I guess you don’t read any of my prior answers to you on this topic. Or just don’t understand them.<br />Willful ignorance?<Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32988423150861278422019-08-05T10:43:15.520-07:002019-08-05T10:43:15.520-07:00Hey Johnny Bee (lap)Dawg:
The S&P 500 index i...Hey Johnny Bee (lap)Dawg:<br /><br />The S&P 500 index is now (1:40pm August 5, 2019)<br />lower than it was on january 26, 2018<br /><br />2873 (1/26/18 peak) versus 2856 (at the moment)<br /><br />What do you, Trump lapdog, and perpetually bullish investor, say now?The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82618777417354528752019-08-05T05:34:26.121-07:002019-08-05T05:34:26.121-07:00https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/china-hits-back-at-trump-with-weaker-yuan-halt-on-crop-imports<br /><br />Where does it end?<br /><br />Answer; it doesn't. <br /><br />Randy's comment was spot on re China cheating us. Trade wars are the ultimate in stupidity and plain frustration. Does anyone in their right mind actually believe that China will back off? Why should theystevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23627802660276519032019-08-03T21:31:47.349-07:002019-08-03T21:31:47.349-07:00Steve and Randy: yes, my views on trade are not or...Steve and Randy: yes, my views on trade are not orthodox. However, there are lots of reasons to be concerned about large and chronic current-account trade deficits.<br /><br />The oldest law, that which predates even society and the study of macroeconomics: if you want to consume you got to produce.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51584882500275281842019-08-03T05:33:53.741-07:002019-08-03T05:33:53.741-07:00For those arguments that the Chinese are cheating ...For those arguments that the Chinese are cheating us - of course they are! That should be viewed as the cost of doing business with them! We can and should be more judicious in how we engage so that we protect IP and domestic security. But broad protectionist trade is a very blunt tool for that. randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47220333211062849472019-08-03T05:27:12.718-07:002019-08-03T05:27:12.718-07:00Benjamin: regarding how seemingly small the tarif...Benjamin: regarding how seemingly small the tariffs are in context to the larger global economy... if someone stands on the side of the pool and in front of everyone pisses right in, it doesn't amount to much, but everyone sure thinks twice about jumping in after that. EVERY global businessman trying to make plans has to deal with the uncertainty of how trade policy may change. Not just randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5886937523174312012019-08-03T04:35:44.760-07:002019-08-03T04:35:44.760-07:00Benjamin, I agree with 90% of what you write but o...Benjamin, I agree with 90% of what you write but on DT's trade policy I am really shocked that you are so insouciant. A tariff is a tax on the consumer. Period. Moreover, it is a slap in the face of freedom as it attempts to force buying decisions. There was a great piece recently written about Fender guitars made in various parts of the world (see below). The gist is if you by the American stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19495661330948717962019-08-03T02:35:38.363-07:002019-08-03T02:35:38.363-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bùi Minh Tradinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06213326928819576048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78929023152678780372019-08-02T19:55:43.205-07:002019-08-02T19:55:43.205-07:00Add on:
Large free economies are generally very r...Add on:<br /><br />Large free economies are generally very resilient in response to trade issues. <br /><br />Imagine this: Let us say s year ago, the Communist Party of China, and President Xi, decided for ideological reasons to do less business with capitalist USA. So they started applying quotas on exports to the USA. <br /><br />Does anyone imagine that the negative effects of such commie Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45159534143301017522019-08-02T18:12:21.161-07:002019-08-02T18:12:21.161-07:00Great post, and I love the numbered charts, especi...Great post, and I love the numbered charts, especially chart number 3.<br /><br />I think the impact of Trump's tariffs is overrated, possibly by a factor of 10 to 1. Even Trump's latest tariff threat, that is 10% on $300 billion of annual China exports to the US, amounts to a tax increase of $30 billion. The United States collects annual tax revenues of $3.9 trillion. The Chinese Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9915685207629532082019-08-02T10:28:57.089-07:002019-08-02T10:28:57.089-07:00 It seems like Trump wants more Chinese purchases ... It seems like Trump wants more Chinese purchases of agricultural products, believing that impacts his constituency, more than anything else. <br /><br />I cannot recall the president (ugh) catering more to his base and ignoring the American people as a whole. <br /><br />He has made Powell’s job nearly impossible.Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12549238790081597160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27597512856765532792019-08-02T10:25:47.447-07:002019-08-02T10:25:47.447-07:00"The collective wisdom of the market trumps t..."The collective wisdom of the market trumps the wisdom of the FOMC members. They need to pay attention to the message of the bond market. That should be a very important part of their deliberations. Right now, the bond market is telling the Fed that more rate cuts are needed."<br /><br />Spot on, Scott. The question is, WHY is the bond market screaming for more cuts? I posit that our stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55252809127714705892019-08-02T10:15:32.020-07:002019-08-02T10:15:32.020-07:00Question to Esther George and Eric Rosengren: How ...Question to Esther George and Eric Rosengren: How do you explain chart #1? #3?<br /><br />(Hint: The Phillips Curve and the level of the S&P 500 are no help.)Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73914399269777440602019-08-02T08:18:57.018-07:002019-08-02T08:18:57.018-07:00Thanks, Scott. Chart #3 continues to be very daun...Thanks, Scott. Chart #3 continues to be very daunting.<br /><br /><br /><br />Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9638903964206429242019-08-02T07:40:57.985-07:002019-08-02T07:40:57.985-07:00The collective wisdom of the market trumps the wis...The collective wisdom of the market trumps the wisdom of the FOMC members. They need to pay attention to the message of the bond market. That should be a very important part of their deliberations. Right now, the bond market is telling the Fed that more rate cuts are needed. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77909247591711828332019-08-01T18:24:14.645-07:002019-08-01T18:24:14.645-07:00Well, the GOP just announced more tariffs and who ...Well, the GOP just announced more tariffs and who knows what other indirect taxes they will come up with. Would you estimate that this hastens the next rate cut? How can the Fed have any idea how to act in this environment is beyond me...Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.com