tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8600658508580364543..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Putting bonds and stocks into perspectiveScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25285115122392952252019-04-08T05:20:59.291-07:002019-04-08T05:20:59.291-07:00Very informative post thanks for sharing Mcx tipsVery informative post thanks for sharing<a href="http://www.capitalstars.com/bullion-premium-mcx-tips/" rel="nofollow"> Mcx tips </a><br />sandeep capitalstarshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00349510157786747055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34682864724463149272018-01-30T14:36:18.373-08:002018-01-30T14:36:18.373-08:00Hello and thank you for the response. I apologize ...Hello and thank you for the response. I apologize for being unclear. My reference was not to the tax law changes. My reference was to the following: for most of the 1900s (your charts above) share repurchases did not exist for SP500 companies. In the late 1980s buybacks started to be used in corporate America. In the early 1990s they increased in popularity. What I am suggesting is that stock Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69277616635666651692018-01-30T14:21:14.684-08:002018-01-30T14:21:14.684-08:00Buk Star: re whether stock buybacks will boost the...Buk Star: re whether stock buybacks will boost the long-term trend growth in stock prices. While we are almost certain to see an increase in stock buybacks as a result of the recent changes to the corporate tax code (lower income tax rates and a sharply reduced rate on repatriated profits), I would note that the size of potential buybacks is likely to be quite small compared to the total value ofScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79981005692251789702018-01-30T14:16:04.781-08:002018-01-30T14:16:04.781-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2866890355220297452018-01-30T12:39:40.233-08:002018-01-30T12:39:40.233-08:00Thank you for posting. Re: your long-term price tr...Thank you for posting. Re: your long-term price trend charts 1&2 - do you think that the new phenomenon of stock buybacks (which started in the late 1980s) would affect the trendline by giving it a higher slope than we have seen historically? This is because buybacks are about 50% of cash return to shareholders - where dividend yield use to be 4% it is now 2% with the other 2% going to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75505162382066391272018-01-28T21:19:58.236-08:002018-01-28T21:19:58.236-08:00steve: re federal debt and the bond market. As I s...steve: re federal debt and the bond market. As I see it, the bond market has never been affected by the amount of federal debt outstanding, at least in the way that most people would expect it to. In fact, a long-term chart of bond yields and federal debt outstanding as a % of GDP shows a negative correlation: rising debt burdens appear to correlate with falling interest rates, and vice-versa. <Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29443631080328343262018-01-28T19:56:15.091-08:002018-01-28T19:56:15.091-08:00Term premiums at ATL levels. Market accepts this a...Term premiums at ATL levels. Market accepts this as an insurance premium...terexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13878600108197052363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-359597658222191662018-01-28T16:34:36.383-08:002018-01-28T16:34:36.383-08:00Steve-the bond markets appear to say, "Capita...Steve-the bond markets appear to say, "Capital gluts forever!"Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41011678157943484142018-01-28T04:45:50.745-08:002018-01-28T04:45:50.745-08:00The ebb and flow over concern of the federal debt ...The ebb and flow over concern of the federal debt is interesting and Ben is right, it may be at an all time low. Of course, the true barometer of concern is the bond market which, while yields have picked up a little, has been remarkably quiescent. Time will tell. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41770320071269595942018-01-27T21:16:11.651-08:002018-01-27T21:16:11.651-08:00OT
I tend to be a contrarian, and lately, no one ...OT<br /><br />I tend to be a contrarian, and lately, no one is worried about the national debt. Time for me to worry. <br /><br />In past times, the national debt was a Bogeyman to slay America--or so said many. <br /><br />Today, the CBO says the national dent will rise by about $1 trillion a year for the next 10 years, until the public holds $25 trillion in IOUs, up from about $15 trillion now.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70625305063063536182018-01-27T14:48:25.468-08:002018-01-27T14:48:25.468-08:00
Sp50cheaper than headline figures?
https://www.m...<br />Sp50cheaper than headline figures?<br /><br />https://www.mckinsey.com/business-<br />functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/looking-behind-the-numbers-for-us-stock-indexes?cid=soc-webAdamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65311640533199422442018-01-24T21:59:00.254-08:002018-01-24T21:59:00.254-08:00Scott, I am surprised that you do not comment on ...Scott, I am surprised that you do not comment on the flattening of the yield curve... The debt bomb is still part of the market psyche and Mr Market does not seem to believe - at this moment - that higher growth is structural/secular enough to substantially shrink that deflation bomb/risk. At least that's my take..., let's hope for rising let yields. <br /><br />Also w regards to tradeterexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13878600108197052363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76606647461159286652018-01-24T08:31:24.703-08:002018-01-24T08:31:24.703-08:00Don't forget he seems to have decided that NAF...Don't forget he seems to have decided that NAFTA is a bad idea all around. As a Canadian, I saw how he's pushing Canada on milk and milk products saying that Canada has unfair trade practices and that that market should be open to all American producers. His solution is tariffs on all Canadian milk product -- while the US has a $400 million surplus with Canada...so no trade is not his Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9329972686682084462018-01-24T08:18:32.625-08:002018-01-24T08:18:32.625-08:00Trump's tariffs are arguably his worst blunder...Trump's tariffs are arguably his worst blunder yet. Utterly stupid. His ignorance regarding trade was always a major concern of mine, and at least we can find comfort in the fact that it has taken him more than a year to do one of the worst things he promised to do. And it isn't earth-shattering, if it is limited to solar panels and washing machines. Let's pray he doesn't do more Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46362339545045102772018-01-24T04:31:08.539-08:002018-01-24T04:31:08.539-08:00Scott, off point but what do make of this?
https:...Scott, off point but what do make of this?<br /><br />https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-starts-his-trade-war-1516755083<br /><br />Strikes me as utterly gormless.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46062694968833271262018-01-19T17:44:00.314-08:002018-01-19T17:44:00.314-08:00I guess 2018-2019 could be the latest iteration of...I guess 2018-2019 could be the latest iteration of, "Will the Fed Take Away The Punch Bowl?" <br /><br />The Fed says it it targeting a higher national rate of unemployment than we have today, of 4.1%. The Fed wants a 4.75% unemployment rate, as a minimum. <br /><br />In the last two years, Fed staffers have consistently posited the US economy is facing “labor shortages” and is “beyond Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com