tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8585207833609240109..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Commodity prices are turning upScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83854093625147771102012-02-07T11:43:14.967-08:002012-02-07T11:43:14.967-08:00This is the great piece of information. Do keep us...This is the great piece of information. Do keep us update with some more great information. Thanks for sharing this.....<a href="http://mcx-ncdex-commodity-trading-tips.blogspot.in/" rel="nofollow">copper updates</a>Sarahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02366669563083584975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81229041284540251712012-02-06T13:49:40.538-08:002012-02-06T13:49:40.538-08:00Benji,
Read my post again I didn't say infla...Benji,<br /><br />Read my post again I didn't say inflation was stealing, I said monetizing debt was stealing. Big difference. I can explain it to you if you need me to.Junkyard_hawg1985https://www.blogger.com/profile/18114117558513498514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70092170737128681992012-02-01T11:04:46.006-08:002012-02-01T11:04:46.006-08:00Thank you one and all for the education regarding ...Thank you one and all for the education regarding the shippers!!<br /><br />http://www.shippingonline.cn/news/newsContent.asp?id=22111<br /><br />What's in your wallet? No shippers, Sir!Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46659387225337281642012-02-01T10:42:06.356-08:002012-02-01T10:42:06.356-08:00Puffer, thank you for the excellent reference!Puffer, thank you for the excellent reference!Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82772521280123859272012-02-01T07:24:37.883-08:002012-02-01T07:24:37.883-08:00Wednesday, February 01, 2012
The Irrelevance of th...Wednesday, February 01, 2012<br />The Irrelevance of the Baltic Freight Index <br /><br />For those loyal CD readers who have been asking lately for an update on the Baltic Freight Index, Dennis Gartman explains in today's The Gartman Letter why its relevance as an economic indicator has diminished to the point that it is being ignored:<br /><br />"There has been a great deal written of pufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594945926620839004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50671915946575206722012-01-31T23:21:07.548-08:002012-01-31T23:21:07.548-08:00Baseball, the three years you mentioned has an ave...Baseball, the three years you mentioned has an average of 5.5% replacement rate, which is near typical of the industry.<br /><br />How is that considered "over-expansion?"<br /><br />I would like to know.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20008917683314068272012-01-31T09:10:56.889-08:002012-01-31T09:10:56.889-08:00Everyone should forget about bonds until interest ...Everyone should forget about bonds until interest rates reach 10-12% -- until then, we are in a buy window for dividend and rent-earning equities -- bonds are a disaster in waiting at this point...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53275659715019124632012-01-31T08:52:46.221-08:002012-01-31T08:52:46.221-08:00Hans-
Are you kidding? Over-expansion is THE stor...Hans-<br />Are you kidding? Over-expansion is THE story in the shipping business today. Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY, has been lamenting the tidal wave of new vessels joining the fleet in 2010, 2011 and 2012. You can't be even cursorily involved in shipping or invested in shipping and not know this.Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52371749413157238732012-01-31T08:15:34.288-08:002012-01-31T08:15:34.288-08:00Som good news from people who track mortgages........Som good news from people who track mortgages.....<br />especially commercial.....<br /><br />U.S. Bank Loan Delinquencies - 4Q Early Estimates<br /> <br /> <br />In advance of final 4Q figures, Trepp has released its estimates for 4Q 2011 U.S. Bank Loan Delinquencies.<br /> <br />Trepp is estimating a slight drop for residential delinquency rates, suggeting a slow recovery in that segment, and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65508700476454767262012-01-31T08:15:03.469-08:002012-01-31T08:15:03.469-08:00Benji,
So you entire theory rests on the ability ...Benji,<br /><br />So you entire theory rests on the ability of the Fed to social engineer an outcome. Good luck. We can already see the unintended consequences and the Fed will need to get more radical to squeeze out even less.<br /><br />Slow motion trainwreck cuourtesy of conductor Ben Bernanke and bunk economics.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74288118204230197182012-01-31T07:45:23.269-08:002012-01-31T07:45:23.269-08:00There is nothing what would suggest over expansion...There is nothing what would suggest over expansion, by the shipping industry.<br /><br />Please, examine the replacement rate.<br /><br />http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/containers/global-container-fleetHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30407851270871404762012-01-31T03:29:38.604-08:002012-01-31T03:29:38.604-08:00Our county roads are full of chuck holes and crumb...Our county roads are full of chuck holes and crumbling apart. The crew comes around now and then and fills the holes with hotmix that only lasts for a short while. This is not just a metaphore.<br /><br />Why can't we get them fixed properly? There's money out there. Michigan actually has a budget surplus right now. The money's not circulating as it should. It's a problem of Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38817361437039220812012-01-30T21:16:57.309-08:002012-01-30T21:16:57.309-08:00this shows the general uptrend in capacity into 20...this shows the general uptrend in capacity into 2010, though it would be nice to have something current, along with demand data -<br /><br />http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/05/global-shipping-capacity.htmlpufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594945926620839004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79042668910074065072012-01-30T20:28:00.584-08:002012-01-30T20:28:00.584-08:00Is there any data source for changes in the size o...Is there any data source for changes in the size of the shipping fleet over time?pufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594945926620839004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25142253466055908972012-01-30T19:20:57.683-08:002012-01-30T19:20:57.683-08:00Scott
You are correct, there is a massive influx o...Scott<br />You are correct, there is a massive influx of ships hitting the fleet now that were ordered during the 2006-2008 boom. It is an unbelievable amount of new supply that is masking actually quite healthy demand for commodity transport. The BDI is a rate index, not a demand index.Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37980827210128454422012-01-30T19:12:21.097-08:002012-01-30T19:12:21.097-08:00Correction, today the Baltic reached a new four ye...Correction, today the Baltic reached a new four year low of 702.<br /><br />Think about it, does this indicated export expansion?Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59976911458428193672012-01-30T19:06:39.995-08:002012-01-30T19:06:39.995-08:00The Baltic Index can be thought of as the conjunct...The Baltic Index can be thought of as the conjunction of two independent variables: demand for bulk commodities and the size of the shipping fleet. In the absence of a major decline in commodity prices and with no reason to suspect the onset of a global recession, I am inclined to view the drop in the Baltic as being driven primarily by an increase in shipping capacity. There is a multi-year lag Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63672755134812622982012-01-30T19:01:09.355-08:002012-01-30T19:01:09.355-08:00I too agree with, PERF...
Puff, is correct as the...I too agree with, PERF...<br /><br />Puff, is correct as the Baltic index is only about two hundred points from it's 2008 low....Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49210910175470349962012-01-30T18:33:55.662-08:002012-01-30T18:33:55.662-08:00Scott -
The Baltic Dry Index has taken a major di...Scott -<br /><br />The Baltic Dry Index has taken a major dive in the last few months, doesn't that portend declining commodity prices ahead?pufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594945926620839004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10495571910242848532012-01-30T17:48:25.630-08:002012-01-30T17:48:25.630-08:00Tiho-
Milton Friedman, John Taylor, Allan Meltzer...Tiho-<br /><br />Milton Friedman, John Taylor, Allan Meltzer and Ben Bernanke have all advised Japan to engage in sustained QE. Those are all very conservative economists. If inflation is theft, then the aforementioned are all advocating thievery. <br /><br />The supply of money needs to be boosted; we need to encourage output and risk-taking.<br /><br />As for capital, we are glutted with the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76340306278154541052012-01-30T16:21:28.225-08:002012-01-30T16:21:28.225-08:00Benjamin said...
"I think bond investors are ...Benjamin said...<br />"I think bond investors are anticipating possible deflation, and so that is holding down yields."<br /><br />There is no deflation, only a bond bubble.<br /><br />Benjamin said...<br />"Monetizing debt makes sense when inflation is dead and output low."<br /><br />Printing money never makes sense. It destroys savers, who are life blood of capitalism and aTihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56249988178588815402012-01-30T15:19:58.798-08:002012-01-30T15:19:58.798-08:00Time to Fire up the Engines
"U.S. Stocks in ...Time to Fire up the Engines<br /><br />"U.S. Stocks in Longest Valuation Slump Since Nixon"<br /><br />U.S. equities have been stuck below the five-decade average for the longest period since Richard Nixon’s presidency, a sign investors don’t trust earnings even after a three-year bull market.<br />Analysts estimate profits in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will reach a record $Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82869494624408709842012-01-30T15:18:06.454-08:002012-01-30T15:18:06.454-08:00Junkyard Dawg-
Inflation is not stealing. Bondho...Junkyard Dawg-<br /><br />Inflation is not stealing. Bondholders bought bonds knowing the risks. <br /><br />If what you say is true, then deflation is stealing from debtors. <br /><br />So we are stuck in the ridiculous position of trying to precisely to maintain zero inflation, despite floods of new goods and services that render measuring inflation often futile.<br /><br />And maintaining Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72407502239051465172012-01-30T14:20:05.733-08:002012-01-30T14:20:05.733-08:00"Monetizing debt makes sense when inflation i..."Monetizing debt makes sense when inflation is dead and output low."<br /><br />There is another word for "monetizing debt": Stealing. <br /><br />Let me edit your statement slightly:<br /><br />Stealing makes sense when someone else has something I want and I can get away with it.Junkyard_hawg1985https://www.blogger.com/profile/18114117558513498514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39707832397013033992012-01-30T13:38:56.457-08:002012-01-30T13:38:56.457-08:00PL--Yes, but there is such a thing as money illusi...PL--Yes, but there is such a thing as money illusion. Myself, if Uncle Sam tosses a $100 bill out on the street I will work to get it in my hand. Output goes up.<br /><br />Also, debts are paid back in nominal dollars. If we have deflation, the debt burden grows worse, even as people decide to not buy stocks or real estate. Japan has tried the deflation route. Uglier than an unflushed toilet.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com