tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post852337546720438533..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Unemployment rate recapScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34153147414593184142011-06-06T18:12:28.174-07:002011-06-06T18:12:28.174-07:00The shift from an industrial/manufacturing economy...The shift from an industrial/manufacturing economy to a service economy has been going on for at least my entire lifetime, and there is no evidence that it has sped up meaningfully in recent decades. So it's nothing new, and therefore you can't blame it for slow jobs growth in the past decade. Bad monetary and fiscal policy cannot escape bearing the lion's share of the blame.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67544125937746467922011-06-06T18:02:20.477-07:002011-06-06T18:02:20.477-07:00Scott, job recovery was weak coming out of the 200...Scott, job recovery was weak coming out of the 2001 recession; it is much slower this time. It was also slower in 1991 but not as much as the most recent two. <br /><br />Do you think the change from an industrial/manufacturing weighed economy to a service one has had an impact on employment coming out of a recession? I'm not trying to excuse bad policy, I'm wondering if slow employment mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14577903456521338372011-06-06T09:50:09.084-07:002011-06-06T09:50:09.084-07:00No. I've been saying ever since early 2009 tha...No. I've been saying ever since early 2009 that this would be a sub-par recovery. The biggest drag on growth has been government "stimulus" spending, since it has sucked the lifeblood out of the economy, spending money on make-work projects, transfer payments, etc. All very inefficient. No recognition that growth must come from the private sector. I still think we're in a slow Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52252951639161375022011-06-06T09:41:53.806-07:002011-06-06T09:41:53.806-07:00Does this analysis change your predictions for GDP...Does this analysis change your predictions for GDP growth and stock market returns for 2011?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7298744149348141312011-06-06T09:13:29.618-07:002011-06-06T09:13:29.618-07:00The reality is that a full recovery in US employme...The reality is that a full recovery in US employment is unlikely before 2022 or after -- more at:<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2011/01/us-jobs-recovery-could-take-decade.html<br /><br />Those Americans who have been unemployed for longer than 18-24 months will likely never work again in the US -- emigration to foreign countries with their families to find work may be required in order to McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com