tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8480414782201463595..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Inflation at the consumer level subsidesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75695116662246842852010-04-16T09:16:49.654-07:002010-04-16T09:16:49.654-07:00John,
I don't have the answer but my gut tell...John,<br /><br />I don't have the answer but my gut tells me the lack of will power to deal with the ills will ultimately make the day of reckoning more spectacular.<br /><br />Our society is now plagued with moral hazard in every nook and cranny. Everyone gets free passes so the faux parade can continue. <br /><br />Banks, borrowers, and unemployment recipients, you name it, and the Fed/Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5049332585922014702010-04-15T18:45:07.054-07:002010-04-15T18:45:07.054-07:00puffer: not necessarily true. If commodity prices ...puffer: not necessarily true. If commodity prices stopped rising, for example, it's entirely possible that other prices that are now falling would begin rising.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40254089437213675112010-04-15T16:06:14.977-07:002010-04-15T16:06:14.977-07:00Scott & Charles -
So oil and copper will more...Scott & Charles -<br /><br />So oil and copper will more than double again in the next 12 to 18 mos? Oil will be $175 next yr and $350 the year after that? No... the huge gains we've seen since the collapse were a one-time event due to a mispricing for Armageddon. Commodity prices will not continue to increase at the same rate and that tapering will create downward pressure on inflationpufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17799406540179163330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84313697364404362662010-04-15T14:01:32.691-07:002010-04-15T14:01:32.691-07:00Public Library,
Specificly, what woud YOU do if y...Public Library,<br /><br />Specificly, what woud YOU do if you were running the Fed?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81333688213451747352010-04-15T11:06:37.808-07:002010-04-15T11:06:37.808-07:00There is a looming disaster on the rise and it'...There is a looming disaster on the rise and it's probably going to come from the sovereigns mismanagement of their new found debt crisis. <br /><br />Some may time the market well enough to make handsome profits, bout the majority will get fully wiped out by the next debacle. And it won;t take another 10 years to rear its ugly head.<br /><br />I have zero confidence the Fed knows what it is Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91413417455342458112010-04-15T10:24:03.490-07:002010-04-15T10:24:03.490-07:00Charles: very good point. The widespread belief in...Charles: very good point. The widespread belief in deflation is misplaced. Yes, there are numerous prices that are falling, but since there are lots of other prices that are rising, what we are seeing is big shifts in relative prices. The falling prices are not due to monetary deflation, they are due to an excess inventory of unwanted goods and services.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66020610933526667662010-04-15T09:45:07.158-07:002010-04-15T09:45:07.158-07:00Why should commodity prices level off? Demand is g...Why should commodity prices level off? Demand is growing from the emerging economies. The cost of the goods and services we buy is increasing at an alarming rate - 3.2% per year when unemployment is at 17%.<br /><br />Wages are not stagnant except in the most competitive sectors of the economy. The minimum wage is way up over last year. Federal employees and employees of large corporations are Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69892050056594657362010-04-15T08:53:07.296-07:002010-04-15T08:53:07.296-07:00Why should commodity prices decline if the Fed and...Why should commodity prices decline if the Fed and other central banks are trying very hard to make sure that there is no shortage of money in the world?Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2962436007080220272010-04-14T19:06:37.537-07:002010-04-14T19:06:37.537-07:00All oil and other commodity prices have to do is s...All oil and other commodity prices have to do is stabilize here and they will exert more downward pressure on inflation. Surely you don't expect them to continue to go up at the same rate (or even close) as they have over the last year, going forward?pufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17799406540179163330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67144079045494065472010-04-14T18:42:16.528-07:002010-04-14T18:42:16.528-07:00chesseBullish. Nothing but bullish. Low inflation ...chesseBullish. Nothing but bullish. Low inflation means continued low interest rates and the potential for rising price-earnings ratios.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26712353861104168042010-04-14T17:35:41.843-07:002010-04-14T17:35:41.843-07:00Wall Street Journal - Jon Hilsenrath - 1 hour ago...Wall Street Journal - Jon Hilsenrath - 1 hour ago<br />Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to a sharp and widely dispersed slowdown in inflation in recent months and indicated he saw little threat of it picking up any time soon, an important diagnosis as the Fed plots out its ... <br /><br />Hey, don't argue with me. Talk to the "other Ben."Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87629463512008041622010-04-14T11:48:26.398-07:002010-04-14T11:48:26.398-07:00Meanwhile, Dr. Perry pooh-poohs inflation, and eve...Meanwhile, Dr. Perry pooh-poohs inflation, and even hints at deflation..........<br /><br />"According to the Cleveland Fed's report today, the median CPI has increased by 0.60% in March over the last year, the 18th consecutive monthly drop in the median CPI annual inflation rate, and the lowest year-to-year inflation rate in the history of the Cleveland Fed's series back to 1984 (Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39084271114798679682010-04-14T11:41:53.175-07:002010-04-14T11:41:53.175-07:00Inflation is what will eventually
kill this bull m...Inflation is what will eventually<br />kill this bull market....but it is<br />far away...My amateur formula....S&P 500 divided by NIPA<br />corporate profits after tax multipied by the year ove year CPI is currently 2.62. When this hits 5<br />look out....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40175259515619170622010-04-14T11:30:03.406-07:002010-04-14T11:30:03.406-07:00Mr. Grannis:
Excellent analysis. Agree with your ...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />Excellent analysis. Agree with your eight (8) bullet points regarding inflation factors. Velocity is odd out right now and is worth keeping an eye on as it could leap frog ahead. <br /><br />The eight bullet point are not stand alone items. The eight points interact. It could end up a sudden, very quick breakout of inflation. <br /><br />The 1970’s inflation was a loose W.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15929450793906005122010-04-14T11:09:26.055-07:002010-04-14T11:09:26.055-07:00Inflation? Fuhgetaboutit.
Wages and property rents...Inflation? Fuhgetaboutit.<br />Wages and property rents are dead. <br /><br />I concede that health care and military hardware-services are going up in price. That's about it.<br /><br />Sure, the CPI is the last to know. But it is still headed south.<br /><br />I think the Fed has a wide-open field to stimulate and flood as many dollars as possible into markets. <br /><br />Not so sure Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com