tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8362932058564133834..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Rising bond yields signal a stronger economyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14860880977357608362011-02-10T01:20:01.552-08:002011-02-10T01:20:01.552-08:00Thanks Scott for this explanation.Thanks Scott for this explanation.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24933699121301127712011-02-09T18:33:25.753-08:002011-02-09T18:33:25.753-08:00Are not the majority here looking at only one si...Are not the majority here looking at only one side of a balance sheet?<br /><br />Does the country has massive assets? Does the country have a rather large and growing income side?<br /><br />As far a stock are concerned and the last couple of years, is not waiting for the dip the new wrong?Lorihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438039963046848511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9323344470857215992011-02-09T18:02:33.033-08:002011-02-09T18:02:33.033-08:00Jon: I hope we will all be pleasantly surprisedJon: I hope we will all be pleasantly surprisedScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64948392349870057872011-02-09T16:47:57.520-08:002011-02-09T16:47:57.520-08:00would you have said the same thing about the wisdo...would you have said the same thing about the wisdom of crowds on the way down?septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88203162998213985852011-02-09T16:07:39.877-08:002011-02-09T16:07:39.877-08:00I agree it's too early to say the reform effor...I agree it's too early to say the reform efforts will fail, but these early minuscule moves when the House Repubs are at the high point of their political power -- a wasting asset -- tell me they are going to go with symbolic incrementalism rather than serious budget cutting. I hope I'm wrong, but having spent a decade on the Hill I'm deeply worried.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86169850245785334252011-02-09T14:29:15.189-08:002011-02-09T14:29:15.189-08:00The House is not going to be able to fix the budge...The House is not going to be able to fix the budget in one day, one week, or even this year. I think it will require a lot of effort and take quite a bit of time. It's too early to conclude that reform efforts are going to fail.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58891941881184560052011-02-09T13:57:40.320-08:002011-02-09T13:57:40.320-08:00Wish I could be as sanguine as you re the new Hous...Wish I could be as sanguine as you re the new House. They certainly have a mandate from the electorate but just today came up with a mere $38 B in spending cuts out of a $1.5 T budget. This, plus the wimpy tax deal they negotiated n December, does not bode well for fiscal restrant.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11323375304311146062011-02-09T12:20:12.247-08:002011-02-09T12:20:12.247-08:00How will monetizing our debt not create runaway in...How will monetizing our debt not create runaway inflation? America thinks it has an unlimited credit card to get itself out of any "emergency". We will keep using it as the financial crises keep on coming. <br />An alcoholic doesn't stop drinking until he hits rock bottom, and the U.S. and won't stop borrowing until we have to. I have a buddy that makes a good living. But he Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24262695245092991542011-02-09T09:26:06.000-08:002011-02-09T09:26:06.000-08:00Re parallels to 1973: It is very tempting to draw ...Re parallels to 1973: It is very tempting to draw parallels between now and the 1970s. Monetary policy is/was very easy; presidential leadership is/was dismal; commodity and gold prices are/were generally rising. But there are some important differences.<br /><br />Corporate profits were generally weak in the 1970s, averaging about 5% of GDP. Corporate profits are very strong today, about 8% of Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64232925185185238942011-02-09T06:37:39.720-08:002011-02-09T06:37:39.720-08:00Scott,
https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningU...Scott,<br /><br /><br />https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/Article.aspx?Type=0&ContentManagerID=25723<br /><br />They show a parallel to 1973 and 2007 equity collapse in regards to very strong CRB increase, it would be very interesting to compare other factors/indicators. Maybe this time is different.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38583621208643687752011-02-09T03:38:57.322-08:002011-02-09T03:38:57.322-08:00We can also look at what happened in March and Apr...We can also look at what happened in March and April of last year to drive up T-bond prices. The sovereign debt issues in Europe come immediately to mind. The summer slowdown is at least in part driven by fear of a second financial crisis originating in European banks.<br /><br />It is clear as you say that Bernanke's expressed determination to avoid deflation has eased deflation fears. Some Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26688769898601694152011-02-08T19:16:42.372-08:002011-02-08T19:16:42.372-08:00Benjamin has certainly not been banned.Benjamin has certainly not been banned.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28203197992165339812011-02-08T18:34:36.542-08:002011-02-08T18:34:36.542-08:00Sir Grannis,
What has happened to Benjamin? He ha...Sir Grannis,<br /><br />What has happened to Benjamin? He has not been banned has he?<br /><br />His comments have always been more than interesting to read.Lorihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438039963046848511noreply@blogger.com