tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8312582930779976716..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: 1.3 million jobs and countingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79656785290549425362010-06-04T11:14:05.512-07:002010-06-04T11:14:05.512-07:00Furthermore, even if you doubt that the household ...Furthermore, even if you doubt that the household survey leads coming out of recessions, there is no reason a priori to disregard its findings. Simply taking the average of the two surveys would tell you that things are picking up, although only moderately.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59360453741112152702010-06-04T11:12:06.028-07:002010-06-04T11:12:06.028-07:00One reason the household survey tends to lead comi...One reason the household survey tends to lead coming out of recessions (and it does, I've checked but don't have the time to document it) is that it uses a telephone survey, whereas the establishment survey is based on sending out questionnaires to known businesses. Coming out of a recession there are usually a lot of startups and people working on their own that the establishment doesn&#Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61748223537718031472010-06-04T10:56:56.258-07:002010-06-04T10:56:56.258-07:00Bro,
Well done.
Today's market decline is I...Bro,<br /><br />Well done. <br /><br />Today's market decline is IMO hot money exiting ahead of the weekend. <br /><br />This is OT but we've discussed it before. Scott Rothbort has a good piece on High frequency trading at TSCM. <br /><br />I'm all for economic free speech (naket shorting, etc) but these algorithmic HFCs are no friend of markets. There are limits to free speech (Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22409921487130582002010-06-04T10:45:09.884-07:002010-06-04T10:45:09.884-07:00Excellent commentary on a blog
by Charles Lieberma...Excellent commentary on a blog<br />by Charles Lieberman...<br /><br />"Instead of lipstick, how about some real analysis? As the economy recovers, firms need man-hours. Late in a cycle, after the workweek is back to normal, firms can't get much in the way of additional hours, so they must resort to adding more workers. At this stage of the cycle, they can add either to headcount or to broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87829430520157707272010-06-04T10:29:25.958-07:002010-06-04T10:29:25.958-07:00Hungary's GDP is 1.1% of the Eurozone GDP....Hungary's GDP is 1.1% of the Eurozone GDP....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12384740537901199152010-06-04T10:11:23.307-07:002010-06-04T10:11:23.307-07:00Bro,
Scott may disagree but that's the way it...Bro,<br /><br />Scott may disagree but that's the way it looks to me too. <br /><br />A lot of folks are fixating on Hungary this AM, a country that is so small it probably will only affect its small neighbors marginally and their larger ones hardly at all. Why not take a look at Canada? They are our largest trading partner and weigh in at about 10% of our size...not inconsequential. They Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87695075157820353912010-06-04T09:25:57.512-07:002010-06-04T09:25:57.512-07:00Help me Scott...
Aggregate Hours index went up
...Help me Scott...<br /><br /> Aggregate Hours index went up<br />from 98.9 to 99.3 and yet total<br />private workers increased only from<br />107.561 to 107.602 million.Are they<br />just working the current workers a lot more???broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76785993123108069402010-06-04T09:22:16.745-07:002010-06-04T09:22:16.745-07:00In 2002, that is.In 2002, that is.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32118108439239034582010-06-04T09:21:39.496-07:002010-06-04T09:21:39.496-07:00Vinnie,
Looking at the BLS chart in the post it a...Vinnie,<br /><br />Looking at the BLS chart in the post it appears the household survey turned up several months before the establishment.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5859047407243453862010-06-04T09:13:58.446-07:002010-06-04T09:13:58.446-07:00Can you overlay a chart of the S&P, to show ho...Can you overlay a chart of the S&P, to show how the markets are doing relative to employment? <br /><br />Markets are leading indicators of economic health, while jobs are lagging. Now that its clear the mkt has moved off the lows as has employment, it would be interesting to see how they continued historically.<br /><br />Thanks for the continued great postings, Scott.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19905090764128101012010-06-04T09:00:57.927-07:002010-06-04T09:00:57.927-07:00Those in the private sector had a
nice income incr...Those in the private sector had a<br />nice income increase...771.89 from<br />767.25...on an aggregate basis the<br />private sector looks like it generated income of 7.7% annualized....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79951056697125550312010-06-04T08:44:04.769-07:002010-06-04T08:44:04.769-07:00Scott,
Do you have historical data of past reces...Scott, <br /><br />Do you have historical data of past recessions supporting your thesis that the household indicator is a leading indicator of the establishment? <br /><br />1 data point is prone to signifcant sampling error :SUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11385766340913067835noreply@blogger.com