tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8177459776131127221..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Commodities are on fire, and that's goodScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69676497575081847462010-09-16T19:14:58.633-07:002010-09-16T19:14:58.633-07:00OK, there is 'dry debris' lying around. So...OK, there is 'dry debris' lying around. So help me out here. You are saying everything blows up all of a sudden like? Are we talking within months, weeks, hours? How is one to gague or measure the timing? <br /><br />I knew a guy once who told me with a straight face that California west of the mountains would slide into the Pacific ocean. I said "when?". He said sometime withinJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43430476768440616752010-09-16T17:03:39.478-07:002010-09-16T17:03:39.478-07:00John,
It only takes a spark to trigger a wildfire...John,<br /><br />It only takes a spark to trigger a wildfire. There is plenty of dry debris lying around the global marketplace.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80854720926716214512010-09-16T16:20:16.046-07:002010-09-16T16:20:16.046-07:00Pub,
Again, the problem I have with what you are ...Pub,<br /><br />Again, the problem I have with what you are suggesting is 'when?'. The dollar appears to be fine. Our bonds are in nosebleed territory and are not showing much evidence of changing. If the dollar is going to 'collapse', its going to send treasuries down hard. I agree with you that treasury bonds are a poor bet but I have watched a lot of people try to short them Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85368512280786337182010-09-16T15:29:42.634-07:002010-09-16T15:29:42.634-07:00I am more referring to the eventual collapse of th...I am more referring to the eventual collapse of the dollar and our fiat currency. Commodities of all sorts are already signaling as noted by Scott. <br /><br />However, I believe it is more likely driven by the flight to physical to counter the fiat printing rather than a new glorified global demand to wrench us from our own false perceptions about sound money and finance.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60611137656858933302010-09-16T15:07:59.692-07:002010-09-16T15:07:59.692-07:00Pub,
I misspelled "imminent".
My apol...Pub,<br /><br />I misspelled "imminent". <br /><br />My apologies, sir.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86159116349962516682010-09-16T14:41:47.915-07:002010-09-16T14:41:47.915-07:00Pub,
The difference between us is that you see a ...Pub,<br /><br />The difference between us is that you see a cliff and I see a mountain. It depends on the direction the bus is going. I see it climbing the mountain. <br /><br />I got in HYG (too early) in '06 and '07, and added significantly in late '08 and early '09. My yield is vastly higher than the MM funds and CDs the cliff fearers are dwelling in. So far I would say I am Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87329146827544147462010-09-16T11:56:01.205-07:002010-09-16T11:56:01.205-07:00Reckless monetary policy lead to the 2008 bust and...Reckless monetary policy lead to the 2008 bust and we are now headed in the same direction but on a grander scale. it appears you will surely miss this bus when it flies right off the cliff again.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42289642685410415602010-09-16T09:59:13.316-07:002010-09-16T09:59:13.316-07:00Re risky assets,
Agree on high yield bonds. HYG h...Re risky assets,<br /><br />Agree on high yield bonds. HYG has made new 52 week highs in recent days and appears poised to continue the trend. <br /><br />A component of many high yield funds is Ford (F) bonds. The common got an upgrade today from Barclays and is up ~5%. With the sentiment for the common improving the bonds should remain well bid. <br /><br />Only one among a large number of Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60189993687772386982010-09-16T09:59:05.647-07:002010-09-16T09:59:05.647-07:00I hope the world's nations are monetarily acco...I hope the world's nations are monetarily accommodative. <br /><br />In the USA, we pretty much hit zero bound and they have in Japan a long time ago.<br /><br />I suspect this will become a spreading problem in years ahead, due to very high global savings rates. <br /><br />This may require a reexamination of what constitutes prudent monetary policy--and, course, in Japan they must seriouslyBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com