tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7953506748398438814..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Thinking about inflation while in ArgentinaScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83116954220510773262015-04-08T08:14:32.566-07:002015-04-08T08:14:32.566-07:00Thanks for the great insight and lesson from your ...Thanks for the great insight and lesson from your experience in Argentina Scott. <br /><br />I'll never experience that and you did an excellent job describing as well as having us think a lot more clearer about not only Argentina's situation but our own here in USA!<br /><br />thank you for your thoughts!DocColoradohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671474713804309737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70399175352822169532015-04-03T14:54:24.256-07:002015-04-03T14:54:24.256-07:00My advice is direct attention to Greece instead --...My advice is direct attention to Greece instead -- more at:<br /><br />http://snips.ly/299E13<br /><br />Greece will be instructive...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73583305788420434222015-04-01T20:46:47.927-07:002015-04-01T20:46:47.927-07:00Matthew G:
I wonder myself. I think passive inves...Matthew G:<br /><br />I wonder myself. I think passive investing might be less rewarding going forward. Equites, bonds , property fully priced. <br /><br />Maybe think active investing. <br /><br />Buy a run-down quadplex, dude it up. <br /><br />Take an equity stake in a small company along with a salaried management position, if you think you can boost profits. <br /><br />There is no right to Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29237362952183087352015-03-31T09:54:40.150-07:002015-03-31T09:54:40.150-07:00William: I really do take to heart the sentiments ...William: I really do take to heart the sentiments you expressed in your latest comments. But in re-reading them, I have to ask: Ok, I'm alert, I'm aware, I'm looking for evidence of the very issues you raise and I find myself copacetic with the overall gist. But what now?<br /><br />I get the contempt for consensus, IF the slow growth/low inflation view is in fact consensus. I'Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67189759463657917182015-03-31T06:10:03.099-07:002015-03-31T06:10:03.099-07:00"If the Fed doesn't take appropriate meas..."If the Fed doesn't take appropriate measures "<br /><br />The Fed has been doing it with its consistently increasing regulation on the big banks, CCAR getting more and more difficult each year. The banks have to comply with ever increasing capital ratios.<br /><br />This assist in keeping down inflation but also is one of the causes for the slower growth both directly and Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51649582151728561242015-03-31T05:20:50.980-07:002015-03-31T05:20:50.980-07:00William: I think your comments on this thread are ...William: I think your comments on this thread are quite wise. I am wrestling with the very issues you raise, as we all are. My struggle is one of timing, as it so often is. But I agree wholeheartedly with the general issues you raise, that consensus is becoming a little too engrained and that we should be looking for the fallout of the bubble-icious elements.Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19815077698114500082015-03-31T05:12:38.102-07:002015-03-31T05:12:38.102-07:00Benjamin: Very fair point. You're absolutely ...Benjamin: Very fair point. You're absolutely correct to point out that US monetary policy, has, if anything, been too tight during the last one and three years. In fact, it feeds my greater fear of, not inflation, but a decreased commitment to alleviating a lack of animal spirits.<br /><br />Of course, this follows a period of an incredible rise in the price of gold - evidence of a too Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39380847892664816492015-03-30T20:04:40.544-07:002015-03-30T20:04:40.544-07:00Post Scriptum: I can recall the numerous posts on...Post Scriptum: I can recall the numerous posts on this Blog from 2009 - 2011 predicting spiraling national debt, inflation and a falling dollar. To be honest, I also thought those were a real risk. But we were ALL WRONG. An example of "common wisdom" or group think. Six years later none of that is true.<br /><br />Thus, one must be skeptical of one's current beliefs which largely Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51178079367982148142015-03-30T18:23:13.587-07:002015-03-30T18:23:13.587-07:00Matthew: interesting comments.
But I take exceptio...Matthew: interesting comments.<br />But I take exception in one regard: that US monetary policy is loose. If monetary policy is so loose, why do we have almost zero inflation in unit labor costs for the last 6 years?<br />Maybe I am arguing semantics, but I think US monetary policy has been tight.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86045177416120874802015-03-30T18:00:44.315-07:002015-03-30T18:00:44.315-07:00What Scott is describing is a turning point in the...What Scott is describing is a turning point in the US economy!! Confidence results in a desire to borrow to buy or invest or renovate - to take risks which most folks have not wanted to do for the past 5 - 6 years. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has announce its plans to gradually raise interest rates. These are major changes compared to what we experienced from 2009 through 2013.<br /><br /Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34701615382553639132015-03-30T10:59:04.645-07:002015-03-30T10:59:04.645-07:00Inflation will only pick up when velocity picks up...Inflation will only pick up when velocity picks up. Velocity will pick up only when animal spirits pick up. So far, this hasn't happened to nearly the degree that a reasonable person would start to worry about significant inflation. And even if it did, the Fed has an unusually powerful lever to tamp it down - the rate it pays on excess reserves.<br /><br />I'm far more worried about a Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4086829940410083112015-03-29T20:25:30.371-07:002015-03-29T20:25:30.371-07:00Interesting post.
But in fact, Americans are holdi...Interesting post.<br />But in fact, Americans are holding a lot of cash, about $4200 is in circulation for every resident. Some say the cash is overseas; but serious scholars also say 75% is in circulation in US grey markets. (In the movies, the foreign bad guys always have suitcases full of Benjamin Franklins.)<br />In Japan, there is the equivalent of about $7500 dollars in circulation for Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com