tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7894447497201260029..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Retail sales remain strongScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51760459750475868252010-06-14T09:02:54.596-07:002010-06-14T09:02:54.596-07:00I think the ECRI index that everyone is concerned ...I think the ECRI index that everyone is concerned about is giving a bad signal. It's turned down because the growth rate of the LEI has declined. Things are still positive, but at a decreasing rate. That is simply the inevitable result of a sudden and sharp downturn, such as we had in 2008, followed by a relatively sharp upturn. At some point the change in yoy growth has to slow down, but Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17660616273848423052010-06-13T12:57:36.546-07:002010-06-13T12:57:36.546-07:00Scott,
Are you concerned that the ECRI index has ...Scott,<br /><br />Are you concerned that the ECRI index has turned negative? Does this just mean slow growth as opposed to an upcoming recession?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52758237626973752032010-06-13T12:22:30.247-07:002010-06-13T12:22:30.247-07:00Jeff: I have noticed the uptick in advertising dol...Jeff: I have noticed the uptick in advertising dollars. Seems like there are so many signs out there of improvement that it's difficult to be pessimistic.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44197280495090651242010-06-12T03:57:26.624-07:002010-06-12T03:57:26.624-07:00your optimism remains strong, or is v shaped. or y...your optimism remains strong, or is v shaped. or you denial remains strong.septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35670537555221615762010-06-11T16:52:56.388-07:002010-06-11T16:52:56.388-07:00Scott -
Thanks for the update on Retail Sales, se...Scott -<br /><br />Thanks for the update on Retail Sales, seems to confirm the Household employment stats and typical recovery cycle.<br /><br />Do you ever look at advertising dollars? The TV upfront ad sales was apparently well sold and and higher prices. It would seem companies are voting on an economic recovery with their advertising dollars too.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11572178679261308234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29387575680182336802010-06-11T15:26:13.048-07:002010-06-11T15:26:13.048-07:00Bro,
I would appreciate some clarification on the...Bro,<br /><br />I would appreciate some clarification on the relationship between the two numbers you provide. I'm not getting the connection. <br /><br />Retail sales from month to month can be a little volatile. A lot is being made of the 'decline' by the double dippers. The recovery is modest, as Scott has repeatedly documented. The road back to prosperity will be bumpy, and Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19724239036944396962010-06-11T15:10:21.547-07:002010-06-11T15:10:21.547-07:00Not related but we saw significant
upward revision...Not related but we saw significant<br />upward revisions to the business<br />inventories and business sales numbers.<br />Over the last 18 years the S&P<br />500 to Business Sales ratio has averaged 1.16. April's number came<br />in at 1100.8.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com