tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7649557698720608201..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Unemployment doesn't always peak at recession endsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73292867011057718792009-07-12T14:43:15.299-07:002009-07-12T14:43:15.299-07:00Scott, I know that you are a supply sider as am I....Scott, I know that you are a supply sider as am I. As you so correctly pointed after the initial hit of the market freeze up, the economy was starting to comeback without any stimulus. I wish pundits would focus on this insight. I might give Obama's popularity free fall and extra push. However, the stimulus bill crowding out funding for productive investment, an onerous regulatory climate, ronraschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708698068353771219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25269133131934486422009-07-12T13:36:54.156-07:002009-07-12T13:36:54.156-07:00As I've said in other comments, I just don'...As I've said in other comments, I just don't think "credit" or deleveraging are important. This recession started with a big financial panic over counterparty risk. No one knew who could be trusted. Transactions ground to a halt, inventories accumulated, production was cut back, cash flow was lost, and jobs were lost. The panic has now passed and inventories are declining, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32642452984051877962009-07-12T06:13:56.297-07:002009-07-12T06:13:56.297-07:00Scott, could it be the the risk premium is higher ...Scott, could it be the the risk premium is higher because the federal government will not get a good return on the bad asset purchases and consumers are tapped out (housing will not return quickly and may continue to sink. You are my favorite blog John Hussman is second he states "Given current household leverage from mortgage and consumer debt, coupled with the inability to access mortgage ronraschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708698068353771219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56660956132278012652009-07-12T04:18:26.485-07:002009-07-12T04:18:26.485-07:00The minimum wage makes a high rate of unemployment...The minimum wage makes a high rate of unemployment among persons with disabilities even higher. In Ohio at 5.50 an hour many employers would willingly higher teenager with disabilities and accept a lower productivity level until my students learned their jobs and good work habits. It was a win win transaction ditto for typical teens many of whom are less motivated than teens with disabilities. ronraschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708698068353771219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10322998596236990162009-07-11T15:44:57.898-07:002009-07-11T15:44:57.898-07:00Maximum unemployment should be around when the eco...Maximum unemployment should be around when the economy bottoms out. For example, the highest rate of unemployment during the Great Depression was 1933, just around when the economy bottomed out (or most malinvestments were cleared by the market).Jonathan Finegold Catalánhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16710256011291680376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72902244313102422092009-07-10T17:21:09.214-07:002009-07-10T17:21:09.214-07:00Scott,
With all due apoligies, Duh! Of course the ...Scott,<br />With all due apoligies, Duh! Of course the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. That being said it is very likely that the unemployment rate will go much higher before the economy stabilizes. I expect unemployment to go double digit this summer and to go as high as 12% nationally and possibly as high as 20% in California (let's face it, California sucks!) before this is all Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82927470275993485922009-07-10T10:49:54.862-07:002009-07-10T10:49:54.862-07:00djakel: I have no problem with the Fair Tax. Eithe...djakel: I have no problem with the Fair Tax. Either a Fair Tax or a flat rate income tax with no deductions would be nirvana in my book.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6822043331573530122009-07-10T10:48:51.155-07:002009-07-10T10:48:51.155-07:00pjwash: the minimum wage is indeed a bad idea. Did...pjwash: the minimum wage is indeed a bad idea. Did you know that about 2% of workers in the U.S. earn minimum wage? It is a law that harms all those who are trying to get their first job but don't have training or education. If they could start out earning less than min. wage they could get experience and then move up.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18900874834773848402009-07-10T10:01:14.274-07:002009-07-10T10:01:14.274-07:00I can give you the exact plan that will accomplish...I can give you the exact plan that will accomplish your solution: Eliminate ALL personal and corporate federal income, savings, investment, and social security taxes and replace them with a 23% federal sales tax with a prebate for necessities(aka the Fair Tax Proposal).<br /><br />Then, we can pass the Fair Tax in each state at about a 10% rate. <br /><br />We instantly become the most djakelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06247798800719389756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18625638865721556152009-07-10T09:11:41.219-07:002009-07-10T09:11:41.219-07:00Given the recent increase in the federal minimum w...Given the recent increase in the federal minimum wage, we should note that 70% of states with highest min wage all land in the top 10 in unemployment...Is there a correlation?<br /><br />Love the Blog..pjwashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03435374328680901375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22078784835094506292009-07-10T08:47:46.391-07:002009-07-10T08:47:46.391-07:00Of course I do. See earlier post (Obama in free-fa...Of course I do. See earlier post (Obama in free-fall?). Either Obama changes his ways or political opposition will make it very difficult or impossible for him to proceed.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17548162508853298952009-07-10T08:10:47.886-07:002009-07-10T08:10:47.886-07:00Interesting Post.
My question is don't you ...Interesting Post. <br /><br />My question is don't you think the "looming disaster for Obama's approval rating" is a good thing if you are opposed to his statist policies?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18246965714613827247noreply@blogger.com