tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7628585712487393537..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Another V-signScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18697766962107640472009-11-30T19:12:39.787-08:002009-11-30T19:12:39.787-08:00ronrasch: I think that canceling all stimulus spen...ronrasch: I think that canceling all stimulus spending tomorrow would be greated by great cheers from the market. The prospect of such a wonderful thing does not worry me at all.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78106211682402057832009-11-30T15:21:40.443-08:002009-11-30T15:21:40.443-08:00Scott, the government redistribution is going to s...Scott, the government redistribution is going to support public jobs that keep excessive state funding a unsustainable levels. What happens when stimulus money is not present to support these jobs? Thank you for your terrific blog and all good things to you and your family this holiday season.ronraschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708698068353771219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58175237515134735952009-11-29T18:35:45.778-08:002009-11-29T18:35:45.778-08:00Daniel: I think you are correct. I believe I said ...Daniel: I think you are correct. I believe I said something similar awhile ago on this subject. For now, the dollar is moving inversely with equities, and I think money velocity is the explanatory variable. But at some point the dollar/equity connection will probably break down--velocity is not going to be the story forever, after all. It is certainly possible for the dollar to strengthen and forScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2047282495528004452009-11-29T07:12:06.406-08:002009-11-29T07:12:06.406-08:00Scott as you write' "...dollar weakness c...Scott as you write' "...dollar weakness continues to predict equity strength. It may be... the dollar's weakness is a reflection of money velocity. ...fueling economic activity worldwide."<br /><br />However, is possible equities are not reacting to the dollar but that equity prices and the low dollar are symptoms of the same cause, money velocity. In theory therefore a shock toMadTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993644388485131972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76915313737032740852009-11-29T06:38:01.022-08:002009-11-29T06:38:01.022-08:00Public: perhaps I was referring to a quarterly ann...Public: perhaps I was referring to a quarterly annualized growth rate. On that basis, the difference between 2.5% and 3.5% is only 0.25% and thus not very important. On an annual basis that does become important as you note.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22886043281141457352009-11-29T06:36:24.462-08:002009-11-29T06:36:24.462-08:00mojakus: I'm referring to real growth of 3-4%mojakus: I'm referring to real growth of 3-4%Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74582639100515104042009-11-29T06:35:58.046-08:002009-11-29T06:35:58.046-08:00Seeking: the system is closed, because as you say ...Seeking: the system is closed, because as you say we can only consume what we produce, and the only way for the economy to grow is to produce more with a given amount of capital and labor.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80095222956787981642009-11-28T08:54:56.121-08:002009-11-28T08:54:56.121-08:00Scott - thanks for the post. Is your 3-4% forecast...Scott - thanks for the post. Is your 3-4% forecast on nominal or real GDP?mojakushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09545513877660371532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90077982190379898442009-11-28T07:48:41.074-08:002009-11-28T07:48:41.074-08:00Scott,
You made a comment awhile back that the di...Scott,<br /><br />You made a comment awhile back that the difference between 2.5% GDP and 3.5% is essentially meaningless to the economy.<br /><br />Most "bearish" investors as you describe them see the economy growing around 2-3%. This is hardly different from your 3-4% forecasts.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23864316973829855492009-11-28T05:16:48.685-08:002009-11-28T05:16:48.685-08:00You make the comment that the economic system is c...You make the comment that the economic system is closed, but then go on to discuss productivity increases. I suggest not using the term "closed system" at any time as it is confusing. The system is not closed but increasing real value via new inventions and greater productivity by some ~3% annually(Real GDP Growth. Ou problems derive from when we grow spending via debt at higher rates seekingtraceevidencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02479493983076211876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70569521660274437052009-11-27T08:09:09.604-08:002009-11-27T08:09:09.604-08:00Scott,
You say "This recovery will likely be...Scott,<br /><br />You say "This recovery will likely be a little different from past recoveries, however, since the recession was precipitated by a major shock to confidence, and that in turn resulted in a sudden pullback in spending worldwide."<br /><br />I think this "recovery" is shaping up as fundamentally different from all post-war recoveries. The Contrary Investor Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17376604503024888462009-11-26T08:39:16.430-08:002009-11-26T08:39:16.430-08:00Игры рынка: That's true, but then the people w...Игры рынка: That's true, but then the people who lent them the money have less cash flow. This is just another example of a transfer of money from one group (the lenders) to another group (the borrowers). This is not a big growth-creating activity. Also, it tends to discourage banks from lending.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44072032321693463782009-11-25T23:18:27.782-08:002009-11-25T23:18:27.782-08:00(have some problems with comments)
when people do...(have some problems with comments)<br /><br />when people do not pay they credit cards and mortgages surely they have more (all) money left for consumptionИгры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70337865221086407602009-11-25T23:17:07.728-08:002009-11-25T23:17:07.728-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8189161259837871202009-11-25T23:14:22.605-08:002009-11-25T23:14:22.605-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50662294410944350752009-11-25T20:36:41.005-08:002009-11-25T20:36:41.005-08:00Do you really think we should be so thankful when ...Do you really think we should be so thankful when over 100% of the "growth" comes from our government's rapidly growing deficit and on track to expand as we send thousands of additional troops overseas?<br /><br />The hole gets deeper and the deficits only get larger as we prepare to give thanks. On the bright side, if we weren't running such a massive defict...could you alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.com