tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7627924421298282884..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: More signs of housing market stabilityScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46550873631706381322010-05-27T12:58:37.223-07:002010-05-27T12:58:37.223-07:00If you REALLY think that, you should be buying far...<i>If you REALLY think that, you should be buying far out of the money puts on HD.</i><br /><br />Sure, if one wants the most inefficient way to express a bearish opinion on the housing market. Home Depot has huge underlying demand from home repair, remodeling is also a far calmer investment series than building, and Home Depot's financial leverage is incredibly tame. If one wanted to get DaleWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16369657928022546882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51657532813493733152010-05-26T07:22:01.281-07:002010-05-26T07:22:01.281-07:00Scott,
I do that frequently myself. I find that i...Scott,<br /><br />I do that frequently myself. I find that if I stand in the middle of the room, point one finger toward the ceiling, and say 'sometimers not alltimers' three times while circling counterclockwise it goes away. <br /><br />just tring to be helpful....Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66714777073285175472010-05-25T22:33:17.339-07:002010-05-25T22:33:17.339-07:00Sorry, I meant to say east of LA. Senior moment.Sorry, I meant to say east of LA. Senior moment.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44246873009261153632010-05-25T21:56:13.593-07:002010-05-25T21:56:13.593-07:00Pomona Valley? West of Los Angeles? I was born h...Pomona Valley? West of Los Angeles? I was born here in the middle part of the last century, and I never heard of the place. <br /><br />Well, good on 'em, I hope all the prices zoom in Pomona Valley, west of L.A. <br /><br />On Catalina Island?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45570027406255572342010-05-25T17:33:24.984-07:002010-05-25T17:33:24.984-07:00I'm not very familur with American things but ...I'm not very familur with American things but the place I look over here (Europe) on how property values are moving is the NAV (Net Asset Values) published by property investment companies and REITS.<br /><br />They tell a much different story from what you will read/here in the media..<br /><br />UK turned + 9 months ago and now up 15%.<br /><br />Northern Europe turned + 2 Months ago, now Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11057071716490091782010-05-25T17:01:51.272-07:002010-05-25T17:01:51.272-07:00More anecdotal evidence. Just spoke to a good frie...More anecdotal evidence. Just spoke to a good friend who lives in an upscale neighborhood (most homes around $1 million) in the foothills of the Pomona Valley (west of LA). They put their house on the market about a month ago and the very next day had two offers for more than their asking price. Escrow closes next week and they are moving to a nearby retirement community. They are very happy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30501395247162701542010-05-25T16:12:34.815-07:002010-05-25T16:12:34.815-07:00RG32,
Thank you for your comment. Our daughter an...RG32,<br /><br />Thank you for your comment. Our daughter and her husband have also just bought an existing home and have been 'fixing up' some things they think need doing. Where did they shop? Like your kids,Home Depot and Lowes.<br /><br /> Shelter is a basic need and even people walking away from their homes (its still happening) have to live somewhere. And at some point they will Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62342192175520089822010-05-25T15:50:03.062-07:002010-05-25T15:50:03.062-07:00Here is another interesting piece on the housing s...Here is another interesting piece on the housing supply/demand dynamics. <br /><br />http://www.businessinsider.com/anyone-whose-still-bullish-on-housing-clearly-isnt-paying-attention-to-the-real-numbers-2010-5<br /><br />The housing market isn't going anywhere for a looooong time.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23703328861491049242010-05-25T15:48:02.168-07:002010-05-25T15:48:02.168-07:00This is an anecdote, but when Reagan told one, eve...This is an anecdote, but when Reagan told one, everyone believed him, so here goes...from LA Curbed, a very good real estate blog that has chortled about price chops in the past....<br /><br />"Just when you think the market is flat and that pricechops rule the day, comes word that a stampede is underway. Or so says our tipster, reporting from the trenches of a recent brokers open house at Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41402525005431521652010-05-25T15:46:23.943-07:002010-05-25T15:46:23.943-07:00Public,
If you REALLY think that, you should be b...Public,<br /><br />If you REALLY think that, you should be buying far out of the money puts on HD. They are long dated and cheap. If you are right they will pay off several times the purchase price. <br /><br />I respect your opinion. But a 20% drop in housing prices from here followed by a further decline is a MASSIVE profit opportunity and I do not see you taking advantage of it.<br /><br /> &Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17860855230657940722010-05-25T15:05:47.121-07:002010-05-25T15:05:47.121-07:00Our family experience confirms your comments. My d...Our family experience confirms your comments. My daughter and son-in-law closed the purchase of a short-sale home in Orange County today. They started the process in January. The appraisal came back 18.5% higher than the purchase price. They could never have afforded this property five years ago. In connection with John's Home Depot comments - they are going to be spending $30,000 on home rg32https://www.blogger.com/profile/00022293175559710842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61889360178005556612010-05-25T14:45:51.807-07:002010-05-25T14:45:51.807-07:00Either way you slice it, the housing market, which...Either way you slice it, the housing market, which is the government, is on solvency life support. <br /><br />A 20% decline from here and lookout below below below...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69849411428126579922010-05-25T13:50:05.737-07:002010-05-25T13:50:05.737-07:00There are two ways to look at the surge in FHA len...There are two ways to look at the surge in FHA lending. One, it is a sign of unwarranted government intervention in markets (making loans that require only a 3.5% down payment) and could end up increasing taxpayer's already-huge liability in the event of another housing collapse. Two, it is facilitating liquidity in a distressed market, and the incremental risk of such lending is far less Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67223741611227438782010-05-25T13:42:44.998-07:002010-05-25T13:42:44.998-07:00The best performing stock in the DJIA today was......The best performing stock in the DJIA today was......(drum rooolll)....HOME DEPOT! It was up something like 2%. Investors in home supply retailers see growth in housing expenditures by consumers. A chart of HD shows only a modest correction from the highs. I think this is one of those fundamentals that is being ignored by panic stricken investors. <br /><br />I do believe there are legitimate Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67353435446432810822010-05-25T13:36:07.589-07:002010-05-25T13:36:07.589-07:00"FHA lending last quarter may have topped the..."FHA lending last quarter may have topped the combined volume of government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a home-lending market that’s still a “government-financed market,”<br /><br />"The FHA and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which regulators seized in 2008, have been financing more than 90 percent of U.S. home lending after a retreat by banks and the collapse of the market forPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59314162284667430312010-05-25T13:32:16.897-07:002010-05-25T13:32:16.897-07:00As a side note the housing starts
to nonfarm payro...As a side note the housing starts<br />to nonfarm payrolls ratio has averaged 1.1% over the last 20 years...we are considerably below this ratio and have been since 2007. I expect to stay below this ratio<br />for a long time as we work off the <br />shadow inventory.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com