tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7582853405449051952..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Retail sales are strong -- another V-signScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3839560661439717212009-12-15T06:09:21.574-08:002009-12-15T06:09:21.574-08:00Scott, thanks for your reply. I agree that econom...Scott, thanks for your reply. I agree that economic conditions have leveled off. Consumers and businesses are attempting to discover the spending and production levels at which they can exist without risk.<br /><br />From an anecdotal perspective re: retail sales, I would point out that the Wal-Mart stores in my section of FL are laying off employees. My local Wal-Mart just laid off 15 Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39080268033429208042009-12-14T08:47:55.646-08:002009-12-14T08:47:55.646-08:00Rick: Real retail sales have not yet exceeded the ...Rick: Real retail sales have not yet exceeded the levels of Q2 or Q3 '08, but that does not rule out the existence of a recovery. From a business cycle perspective, recovery starts once economic activity has bottomed. Increasingly it looks like a recovery started last July. For the layman, a recovery probably won't arrive until economic activity reaches a new high.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88550666955920960282009-12-14T08:01:54.296-08:002009-12-14T08:01:54.296-08:00Hi Scott, are retail sales expressed in real dolla...Hi Scott, are retail sales expressed in real dollars (not current dollars) higher than they were in Q208 or Q308? All your graph proves is that the six month annualized movement in retail sales is now moving up off of a lower base. Why is that a predictor of recovery any more than the same average was a predictor of continued growth in early 2008?<br /><br />Also, how does an economist define Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20616296551293843692009-12-13T08:51:13.856-08:002009-12-13T08:51:13.856-08:00Awoke this morning to this tweet from Rasmussen: O...Awoke this morning to this tweet from Rasmussen: Obama: Strongly Approve 23% Strongly Disapprove 42%.. Approval Index:-19, lowest yet... <br /><br />In other words, a nice Sunday morning.Cabodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299113185481067179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2417521133224578142009-12-12T11:10:53.762-08:002009-12-12T11:10:53.762-08:00I'm not sure there is data to answer your ques...I'm not sure there is data to answer your question, but I doubt it's an 80/20 thing.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39878173575840413882009-12-12T01:26:34.791-08:002009-12-12T01:26:34.791-08:00Has anyone read or heard what percentage of consum...Has anyone read or heard what percentage of consumer spending the top 20% of income earners are responsible for?<br /><br />I seem to recall hearing in a <br />t.v. interview an economist say that, similar to Pareto's law, the top 20% of income earners are responsible for 80% of the spending.<br /><br />My next question would be, what has happened to the disposable income of this group?bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53594528126139685412009-12-11T17:09:03.480-08:002009-12-11T17:09:03.480-08:00Bill: The connection between the strength or weakn...Bill: The connection between the strength or weakness of a major currency like the dollar and export growth is largely a myth. A 10-20% appreciation of the dollar would have little if any impact on our exports. In any event, a stronger dollar would far outweigh in positive terms (increased investment, lower inflation, greater confidence) than any negative impact it might have.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25268497987997754722009-12-11T14:06:00.703-08:002009-12-11T14:06:00.703-08:00From Mish Shedlock's blog we have this:
Inqui...From Mish Shedlock's blog we have this:<br /><br />Inquiring minds are reading the Wall Street Journal article Stores' Dilemma: <br /><br />To Deploy Discounts Now or Hold the Line.<br />Who will blink first: retailers or shoppers? Chain-stores are holding bigger markdowns in reserve trying to gauge how long shoppers will wait for better deals to emerge.<br /><br />The standoff, which Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66415687932391664562009-12-11T13:50:53.156-08:002009-12-11T13:50:53.156-08:00Do you a think a stronger dollar will weaken expor...Do you a think a stronger dollar will weaken exports and hence GDP growth?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com