tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7537279754798003396..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Commodity updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36817415256218976962009-11-25T13:21:23.740-08:002009-11-25T13:21:23.740-08:00Bill: I think I've mentioned before that we ar...Bill: I think I've mentioned before that we are in a strange environment: money is quite plentiful (more than ever before), but for some people it is very hard to get. I think this is due to the huge changes sweeping the financial industry (not all good, unfortunately) and the fact that the world is still quite risk averse. Traditional lending channels aren't working as well as they used Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77469765360357212792009-11-23T10:51:20.278-08:002009-11-23T10:51:20.278-08:00I think that is equivalent to what I've been s...I think that is equivalent to what I've been saying. The weak dollar and rising gold and commodity prices say that the Fed is too easy. Treasury yields are very low, and will probably rise significantly once the Fed gives the all-clear sign on the economy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17179608284237946722009-11-23T10:02:11.897-08:002009-11-23T10:02:11.897-08:00The crisis began with a lack of confidence in bank...The crisis began with a lack of confidence in banks and insurance companies ability fulfill their debt obligations.<br /><br />This crisis in confidence stemmed from the ability of banks and insurance companies to leverage 30+ times using ultra cheap credit.<br /><br />The source of the fuel for the crisis that the banks and insurance companies used to lever up stemmed from shakey credits in Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28987940669564656402009-11-23T03:56:28.202-08:002009-11-23T03:56:28.202-08:00The Austrian School economists believe that the na...The Austrian School economists believe that the natural interest rate is determined by human "time preferences" -- and they believe the market determined interest rate coordinates important economic decisions. <br /><br />The Fed's notions, as you explain them, have destroyed the interest-rate coordination mechanism in our economy. This is not a good thing. During the last boom it Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67157282396137371102009-11-22T11:26:59.781-08:002009-11-22T11:26:59.781-08:00Here's how I see the issue of zero interest ra...Here's how I see the issue of zero interest rates. This whole crisis began with an enormous increase in the world's demand for dollars. To avoid a general deflation, the Fed responded with an attempt to satisfy the world's demand for dollars by lowering the interest rate on dollars to zero. In addition, the Fed went on to purchase $1 trillion or so of agency and MBS, to ensure that Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39956656400322850092009-11-22T10:16:28.683-08:002009-11-22T10:16:28.683-08:00Scott:
I think Iread in the paper recently that a ...Scott:<br />I think Iread in the paper recently that a Fed Gov. said that interest rates are being kept where they are to encourage investments in riskier things, stocks etc. Any thoughts.<br /><br />JayJay Norman Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12937028864526660392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78740004898859958102009-11-22T07:39:31.348-08:002009-11-22T07:39:31.348-08:00Monetary policy is not just "accommodative;&q...Monetary policy is not just "accommodative;" short term interest rates have been artificially managed to an ultra low level. Banks and investment banks can borrow at a few basis points, and there is a growing number of people who believe the US dollar has now become the carry trade source of the world.<br /><br />Given nearly zero interest rates, lots of economic projects appear to be Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79065973681964896862009-11-20T16:54:01.991-08:002009-11-20T16:54:01.991-08:00Scott,
I'd be interested in your thoughts on ...Scott,<br /><br />I'd be interested in your thoughts on the difficulty companies are still facing getting credit to complete transactions (which is really impacting my corporate law partners). Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel with respect to credit or do you think the banks are going to hold on to their cash for quite some time?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6270775973287533042009-11-20T12:46:56.976-08:002009-11-20T12:46:56.976-08:00Agreed...here is another interesting fact 28 state...Agreed...here is another interesting fact 28 states showed positive nonfarm payroll growth compared to 8 states in September and 7 states in August....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38687238417359099192009-11-20T12:38:52.263-08:002009-11-20T12:38:52.263-08:00Very interesting, but I note that one survey showe...Very interesting, but I note that one survey showed an increase of 25,700 jobs, while another showed a decrease of 94,000. But even if the news is mixed, it's a lot better than what we have been seeing for the past year.<br /><br />http://yubanet.com/california/California-s-Nonfarm-Payroll-Jobs-Increase-by-25-700.phpScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76291172262516906622009-11-20T12:18:46.301-08:002009-11-20T12:18:46.301-08:00Here is an interesting fact...
California had posi...Here is an interesting fact...<br />California had positive nonfarm payroll gtowth for the first time since April 2008....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com