tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7447854449738016048..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Chemical activity continues to increaseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82814349200084194382016-09-08T13:26:50.935-07:002016-09-08T13:26:50.935-07:00I would further point out that the Chemical Activi...I would further point out that the Chemical Activity Barometer includes August data, whereas the TSI index only includes data through June. Moreover, the CAB shows a pronounced strengthening year to date. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31645303101403123832016-09-08T13:20:24.906-07:002016-09-08T13:20:24.906-07:00Thank you for your input. I felt like it was a he...Thank you for your input. I felt like it was a headline to get people talking but know that we are in that consistent plow horse kind of mode. As I get older I see the MSM play off of one fear or another to get people watching. Thanks again for your thoughts. Tom.Tom Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09337661874291350883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25959819565864686662016-09-08T09:36:55.095-07:002016-09-08T09:36:55.095-07:00My read of the freight index and related indices i...My read of the freight index and related indices is different. The TSI index is actually up year over year through June, but it has been in a flat trend for the past 18 months. The major source of weakness comes from a decline in carloads, but that is mainly due to a decline in shipments of petroleum and coal, and those declines have a lot to do with increased natural gas production (natural gas Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52801393443209717252016-09-08T08:45:05.500-07:002016-09-08T08:45:05.500-07:00Scott, thoughts on CNBCs current post in the freig...Scott, thoughts on CNBCs current post in the freight index? <br /><br />A critical US industry is pointing to an economic downturn<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/103917605Tom Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09337661874291350883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38282532997912137092016-09-04T16:47:42.262-07:002016-09-04T16:47:42.262-07:00Keep in mind the federal government spends $1 tril...Keep in mind the federal government spends $1 trillion annually on "national security."<br /><br /> We could cut defense by 15% and fund even Trump's infrastructure plans easily.<br /><br />I agree the Departments of Education and Energy be eliminated. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52352819022543677752016-09-04T16:40:24.863-07:002016-09-04T16:40:24.863-07:00Matt-thanks for your commentary. In this particula...Matt-thanks for your commentary. In this particular election year, writing in the name of nearly anybody is a valid option.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13542680225305000562016-09-04T06:18:54.415-07:002016-09-04T06:18:54.415-07:00This is out of context of this thread, but when i ...This is out of context of this thread, but when i read this quote I thought of Scott Grannis message to not underestimate the ability of the US economy to chug along.<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-bogle-the-undisputed-champion-of-the-long-run-1472855372<br /><br />Investing, he says, always is “an act of trust—in the ability of civilization and the U.S. to continue to flourish; in randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30045138559024253492016-09-03T15:25:56.561-07:002016-09-03T15:25:56.561-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13661733177707842064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75176633752435284142016-09-03T15:03:27.914-07:002016-09-03T15:03:27.914-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13661733177707842064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75494078402239539782016-09-02T19:57:19.937-07:002016-09-02T19:57:19.937-07:00I am with you on departments and agencies to elimi...I am with you on departments and agencies to eliminate, although I'm not sure about the USDA. We need to know our food is safe. I cannot imagine how quickly the unemployment rate would drop if we did away with the minimum wage. So many who cannot find a job because their labor skills are not worth the going minimum wage could negotiate for what they are really worth. <br /><br />We ought to mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34208584766867941302016-09-02T19:18:54.618-07:002016-09-02T19:18:54.618-07:00Benjamin for prez, I say. I may just write you in....Benjamin for prez, I say. I may just write you in. Also, I agree with your comments on yields in the event of a rate increase ( the likelihood of which declined today). Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2413034028357736892016-09-02T18:51:26.483-07:002016-09-02T18:51:26.483-07:00Worth pondering:
In Dec. 2015 the Fed raised int...Worth pondering: <br /><br />In Dec. 2015 the Fed raised interest on excess reserves and the funds rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. That was the last rate hike.<br /><br />Since then, 10-yeat Treasuries have fallen in yield from about 2.20% to 1.53% (latest).<br /><br />I suspect Milton Friedman is right about this. A central bank cannot tighten its way to higher interest rates. <br /><br />So, what Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56808800668227284562016-09-01T22:05:03.241-07:002016-09-01T22:05:03.241-07:00The nightmare of zoning and growth restrictions
co...The nightmare of zoning and growth restrictions<br />comes of Seattle and King County.<br /><br />http://thelens.news/2016/06/23/a-move-to-limit-growth-in-small-cities-sparks-uprising-against-psrc/Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72028973902509704202016-09-01T10:42:43.954-07:002016-09-01T10:42:43.954-07:00California would be even stronger and healthier if...California would be even stronger and healthier if tax and regulatory burdens were reduced. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66576126840246991352016-09-01T10:34:59.585-07:002016-09-01T10:34:59.585-07:00CA does well DESPITE its costly tax structure and ...CA does well DESPITE its costly tax structure and regulation not because of it. It is the tech center of the world and yes, it benefits from a nice climate. Don't be delusional and believe you could take their political structure and be successful anywhere else. Look at NY as an example of the pernicious effects of egregious reg/tax on an economy.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5701393210175565162016-09-01T06:01:09.306-07:002016-09-01T06:01:09.306-07:00Scott: I get confused on excess reserves. Some say...Scott: I get confused on excess reserves. Some say the banks hardly need larger reserves at all, we are talking a few percent, not the trillions of dollars they have. Supposedly, Dodd-Frank and Basel just boosted reserves requirements, not many-fold jumps. <br /><br />Mmanageddaccounts: California grows as it has the best weather by far in the U.S. Then, it has terrific universities and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25263758046460422992016-09-01T05:04:36.691-07:002016-09-01T05:04:36.691-07:00I don't get it. The political and economic phi...I don't get it. The political and economic philosophy to which I ascribe preaches low taxes and limited regulations. The state of California (where Scott and Benjamin both live, I think) rejects both. It leads the US in new regulations, has high corporate and personal income taxes, and everything there is costly: housing, energy, etc. <br /><br />With all these obstacles to corporate mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25267806520172090762016-08-31T22:38:03.663-07:002016-08-31T22:38:03.663-07:00Benjamin: I have been making this argument since e...Benjamin: I have been making this argument since earlier this year (i.e., there are effectively no excess reserves due to new regulatory requirements). Whether there is a shortage of reserves is another question. I'm not sure there is, but I'm not worried that the Fed's balance sheet is too big. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41745122538597074892016-08-31T22:11:56.759-07:002016-08-31T22:11:56.759-07:00OT, but interesting:
http://ritholtz.com/2016/06/...OT, but interesting:<br /><br />http://ritholtz.com/2016/06/feds-balance-sheet-small/<br /><br />Seems to be a variation on the global demand for dollars, and in this case that means the Fed's balance shed is actually too small….<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9420494443883681372016-08-31T06:20:50.346-07:002016-08-31T06:20:50.346-07:00I dislike being a Negative Norm, but...
I wonder ...I dislike being a Negative Norm, but...<br /><br />I wonder if very low US natural gas prices are shifting chemical biz to US. Some industries are happy and seeking export controls btw.<br /><br />Good news it is, but chemical indicators might be skewed this go 'round as leading lights.<br /><br />Evans Fed Chicago just said he foresees low inflation and low interest rates and low growth for Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13674591794165705042016-08-30T14:52:45.411-07:002016-08-30T14:52:45.411-07:00Nice; According to the Chemical Board:
Applying t...Nice; According to the Chemical Board:<br /><br />Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01390035459036380103noreply@blogger.com