tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7291438521187635102..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Estimating Friday's jobs numberScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42321021185086558132011-02-03T09:47:24.695-08:002011-02-03T09:47:24.695-08:00Frozen: the Fed is between a rock and a hard place...Frozen: the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The data always come out with a lag, and unemployment is always the last thing to improve. If they were to pull the plug on stimulus before the unemployment rate starts declining they could be subject to huge criticism, however injustly. This is one of the reasons to be worried about inflation: the Fed is going to be slow to react.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66702728666555634112011-02-03T06:10:11.851-08:002011-02-03T06:10:11.851-08:00Everything you say is absolutely correct, commodit...Everything you say is absolutely correct, commodity prices continue to rise, oil at $92, Copper at $10,000/t, all correct and the signs that the labor market is finally turning the corner is very positive. <br /><br />My question is why is the Feds still talking QE, if everything is so good? Maybe if the gov't ease off the gas pedal America would be better off!<br /><br />Still, that's Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44809061670773875082011-02-03T03:49:36.828-08:002011-02-03T03:49:36.828-08:00I have always thought that the payroll number shou...I have always thought that the payroll number should be announced <br />as a 3 month moving average...it is<br />by far a more accurate indicator of what is going on as opposed to the one month number...oh well<br />i guess it is human nature to only<br />want the most current (inaccurate?)<br />data.....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77407450823336189872011-02-02T22:37:58.197-08:002011-02-02T22:37:58.197-08:00Lori-
The world has never had so much venture cap...Lori-<br /><br />The world has never had so much venture capital, and so many scientists and engineers at work. The Internet speeds technical data globally instantly. <br /><br />I wish I could live several more decades. I think I have two or three left. Dang. <br /><br />We may also see a revolution in our understanding of money. If, as I suspect, deflation is the next big monster, then we Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32129582415761851312011-02-02T18:53:37.794-08:002011-02-02T18:53:37.794-08:00Jeff: My inflation concerns may have been tempered...Jeff: My inflation concerns may have been tempered a bit over the past two years, given that I have way overestimated the gains we have seen in the CPI and related indices. Apparently the lags are longer than I thought, and there is more inflation "inertia" than I had expected, but I have not abandoned the idea that inflation should be increasing. I am acknowledging that it won't Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63707733617930138282011-02-02T16:02:48.566-08:002011-02-02T16:02:48.566-08:00I've noticed lately that your outlook for infl...I've noticed lately that your outlook for inflation has subsided...using phrases like "trend slowly higher".<br /><br />This is in contrast with language such as "an over supply of dollars", "rising inflation expectations", "inflation alive and well", etc. over the last few months.<br /><br />What is the biggest reason for the change in tone? Is my Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76840967971640689992011-02-02T15:48:12.804-08:002011-02-02T15:48:12.804-08:00Benjamin,
You are absolutely right. One never kno...Benjamin,<br /><br />You are absolutely right. One never knows when and where technological improvements will come.<br /><br />Colonoscopys are a thing of the past.<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/dog-smelling-cancer-may-lead-to-less-invasive-tests-for-tumors.htmlLorihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438039963046848511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59048490595786633232011-02-02T15:26:26.390-08:002011-02-02T15:26:26.390-08:00"Nevertheless, it is tempting to get a little..."Nevertheless, it is tempting to get a little excited about the relatively large January jobs gain that is being projected by ADP in their release today (+187K)"<br /><br />I'll admit it, I am excited. Dang, I think we are full into a bull market and on the cusp of a boom economy. <br /><br />This is the first leg. <br /><br />What wonders, what inventions, what technologies will Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com