tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7246464919701304426..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Laffer Curve strikes again: lower tax rates produced more revenueScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63062676903185230632018-05-22T05:34:39.694-07:002018-05-22T05:34:39.694-07:00Georgetown, Berkeley, and NYU.
Kewl articleGeorgetown, Berkeley, and NYU. <br />Kewl articleJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91168752261809333632018-05-22T05:11:26.316-07:002018-05-22T05:11:26.316-07:00https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2018/05...https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2018/05/20/trump-may-be-the-most-fiscally-reckless-president-in-american-history/#2570b75d564a<br /><br />FYIstevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40770536063273990972018-05-22T03:46:59.160-07:002018-05-22T03:46:59.160-07:00The Laffer Curve...or is it a laugher?
Goldman:...The Laffer Curve...or is it a laugher?<br /><br /> <br />Goldman: U.S. fiscal outlook 'not good'<br /><br />The fiscal outlook for the U.S. "is not good," according to Goldman Sachs, and "lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn."<br /><br />The bank expects the federal deficit to increase from $825B (or 4.1% of GDP) to $1.25T (5.5% of Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15827753492789095192018-05-21T09:09:05.998-07:002018-05-21T09:09:05.998-07:00Re adding debt when interest rates are low. It'...Re adding debt when interest rates are low. It's true that interest rates have been exceptionally low for most of the past decade, which has also been a time of historically slow growth and low inflation. But it's not necessarily true that all the debt added in the past decade will blow up the economy when and if interest rates rise. It's important to remember that interest rates tendScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78814044834508537072018-05-21T05:37:59.046-07:002018-05-21T05:37:59.046-07:00Cliff: tax revenue comes from profits and paychec...Cliff: tax revenue comes from profits and paychecks. We need more of both. <br />Robust GDP is a result of increasing profits and paychecks.<br />Debt to GDP ratio is not "economic nonsense". Its a good indirect measure of government's ability to pay its debt.<br />Falling debt to GDP is an important move in the right direction.<br />You are right that debt never goes away....itJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89038029860129599392018-05-20T14:05:21.978-07:002018-05-20T14:05:21.978-07:00Cliff: when you go to a bank to get a mortgage, do...Cliff: when you go to a bank to get a mortgage, do they only want to know <br />how much you want, or do they want to know how much you want and how much you make? <br /><br />Cliff sez:<br />The bankers just look at me and say "no"!<br />I hadn't borrowed money in so long that <br />when I leased a new car in 2016, they <br />told me I had "no credit rating at all".<br />The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37682080640570907812018-05-18T22:37:12.047-07:002018-05-18T22:37:12.047-07:00Tell-Tale, re Argentina’s inflation numbers. I cou...Tell-Tale, re Argentina’s inflation numbers. I could argue that since electricity is only a small portion of the Argentine CPI, it can hardly dominate the inflation numbers. But to me the overwhelming part of the inflation story is the 30% annual increases in the money supply that have been occurring for almost all of the past decade. Those numbers are huge, and they are in the end necessary in Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42221924575744359582018-05-18T17:46:39.980-07:002018-05-18T17:46:39.980-07:00Scott, Because Argentina's inflation numbers a...Scott, Because Argentina's inflation numbers are dominated by necessary increases in electricity tariffs, is it really inflation or just prices rising from unsustainable, subsidized levels? Is there a way to strip that out to know the real inflation numbers? At some point, comparisons look better, etc.Tell-Tale Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02674549122975426531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86269157972883164672018-05-18T15:44:16.927-07:002018-05-18T15:44:16.927-07:00What I know is that my taxes here in California ar...What I know is that my taxes here in California are going up by about 25% for 2018 because of the limitations to state and property taxes. Thanks Trump. <br /><br />Also - California with its liberal high tax policies is running a budget surplus while Kansas tried tax cuts and failed miserably. Funny how you don't talk about that.amritsarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03968805404670583901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2557227409752892842018-05-17T16:04:32.770-07:002018-05-17T16:04:32.770-07:00Cliff: when you go to a bank to get a mortgage, do...Cliff: when you go to a bank to get a mortgage, do they only want to know how much you want, or do they want to know how much you want and how much you make? Obviously the latter, since how much you can safely borrow is a function of your ability to pay, which is directly related to your income. The burden of debt must always be expressed relative to one's ability to service that debt. GDP isScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34175552415741268772018-05-17T15:15:33.416-07:002018-05-17T15:15:33.416-07:00"The size of the federal debt is not as meani..."The size of the federal debt is not as meaningful <br />as the size of the debt as a percentage of GDP."<br /><br />WRONG.<br />Interest is paid on the "size" of the debt,<br />not the percentage of GDP.<br />Since the debt will never be repaid,<br />the interest expense is most important.<br />... along with the crowding out effect.<br />.<br />.<br /> On that basis<br /> ..The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19065044180868214952018-05-13T23:13:20.836-07:002018-05-13T23:13:20.836-07:00Cliff: I'm relying on the fact that federal re...Cliff: I'm relying on the fact that federal revenues were flat from Feb '17 through Dec. '18. That this was a period during which there was widespread speculation that there would be significant cuts in corporate and individual income tax rates. And the fact that on a year over year basis federal revenues have been increasing during the current calendar year, particularly in April. <Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44755398264548880862018-05-13T12:22:39.892-07:002018-05-13T12:22:39.892-07:00Cherry-picking the month of April 2108
to make a ...Cherry-picking the month of April 2108 <br />to make a point is bad economics,<br />without mentioning March 2018 and <br />the 2018 fiscal year (to date).<br /><br />I'll do that for you:<br /><br /><br />MARCH 2018 US BUDGET DEFICIT SETS RECORD:<br />(1) Federal spending in March 2018 <br />was the second highest month<br />on record.<br /><br />(2) The March 2018 budget deficit of $The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9176462031084728582018-05-13T07:50:11.165-07:002018-05-13T07:50:11.165-07:00The premise of your argument is invalid.
The high...The premise of your argument is invalid.<br /><br />The higher taxes that I paid in April 2018 vs. 2017 were from income generated via capital gains in tax year 2017, which is paid in April 2018. <br />This income was booked well before the tax law passed.<br /><br />I paid higher taxes from realized gains in the stock market, which rose significantly in 2017. I doubt that my behavior of selling Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15333565680808748761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91593538408984778552018-05-13T07:14:34.842-07:002018-05-13T07:14:34.842-07:00"taxes were raised" The changes in the ..."taxes were raised" The changes in the deduction rules, the $10,000 limit, will not have a visible impact until next Spring, I believe. The change in the standard deduction, which I do not claim to understand in detail, will affect all states in the same way. My own tax rates go up, as the brackets for the 3x% rates cut in at low dollar values.George Phillieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15430038472888222992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19245644838751952152018-05-13T03:46:43.161-07:002018-05-13T03:46:43.161-07:00So taxes were raised on residents of "blue st...So taxes were raised on residents of "blue states" which has led to higher income tax receipts, as professionnals in those urban states produce more econmic activity.<br /><br />As to spending restraint: most federal spending goes to old people in the form of entitlements. Substantially all of the growth in feederal spending comes from those programs. How much less Medicare should we GenX Politicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10529145133765161330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35154816227037336392018-05-11T21:53:16.185-07:002018-05-11T21:53:16.185-07:00Trump added that the U.S. had gotten nothing out o...Trump added that the U.S. had gotten nothing out of the "$7 trillion [spent] in the Middle East over the last 17 years." ---Newsweek<br /><br /> Yes, the United States can easily come closer to balancing the budget. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67673534671480876482018-05-11T13:11:01.616-07:002018-05-11T13:11:01.616-07:00Well, I was thinking the first full FY after the c...Well, I was thinking the first full FY after the cut, or FY 19. (This would avoid the probable one-time benefit of the taxes on repatriated profits.) But even on FY18, I'll take the over, probably well over 720B.<br /><br />I hope you're right, of course. The lower the better. But whatever the number the point still holds. We must at least not lose ground, deficit-wise, in boom timesGrechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65028972702406212612018-05-11T12:48:52.373-07:002018-05-11T12:48:52.373-07:00Ron: To be fair, Laffer is quick to acknowledge th...Ron: To be fair, Laffer is quick to acknowledge that his famous curve is not something he invented. He just explained basic principles of taxation and commonsense that were apparently being overlooked. Reagan often quoted an ancient Muslim sage named Ibun Khaldun in regards to the same ideas and common sense.<br /><br />Thanks for the Mellon quote, however, as I had not heard that before. Smart Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18822716541216116372018-05-11T12:45:43.993-07:002018-05-11T12:45:43.993-07:00Matthew: if current trends in revenues and spendin...Matthew: if current trends in revenues and spending persist, my numbers point to a FY18 deficit of about $720 billion, or 3.5% of GDP.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30290531988566458482018-05-11T12:21:36.259-07:002018-05-11T12:21:36.259-07:00If anything, I believe even more than you do in th...If anything, I believe even more than you do in the Treasury-boosting aspects of tax cuts. I am not surprised in the least that the Treasury is collecting more, not less.<br /><br />What is shocking is that we're about to run a $1.2 trillion deficit in the same year of these burgeoning tax receipts. This is about 6% of GDP; 5-6% of GDP has long been held to be the danger zone.<br /><br />I Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41981279632165517182018-05-11T12:21:06.475-07:002018-05-11T12:21:06.475-07:00I'm new here so it may have already been poin...I'm new here so it may have already been pointed out that the Laffer Curve probably should have been named the Mellon Curve as the idea goes back to at least Treasury Secretary Mellon's book, <i>Taxation</i>, where he wrote, "The first object of taxation is to secure revenue...The problem is to find a rate which produces the largest returns. Experience does not show that the higher Ron Grunerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03824733166872110026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19010643187528271132018-05-11T11:47:10.699-07:002018-05-11T11:47:10.699-07:00"As for that article, let me just say that th..."As for that article, let me just say that there's a reason nobody in the investment business reads Investors Business Daily".<br /><br />What a stupid comment. All IBD did was to reference study done by two university professors! IF you had read it you would have known that.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90825256172865354382018-05-11T09:44:17.973-07:002018-05-11T09:44:17.973-07:00And eventually the effect of no longer acceleratin...And eventually the effect of no longer accelerating deductions will normalize. unless one can accurately adjust for that effect, as well as the (current) upward momentum of the business cycle, etc. it's too soon to praise Arthur Laffer. We've got just one quarter's worth of data.<br /><br />I agree corp tax rates needed to come down. (Think Japan's rates may have been higher, misterkrustyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01593047361808728232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81631089529645420592018-05-11T08:41:04.791-07:002018-05-11T08:41:04.791-07:00Excellent point.Excellent point.George Phillieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15430038472888222992noreply@blogger.com