tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7233632022717968293..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Risk aversion slowly declinesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41573581073596813622014-12-05T14:49:03.458-08:002014-12-05T14:49:03.458-08:00Re: corporate profits. The chart of S&P PE rat...Re: corporate profits. The chart of S&P PE ratios using NIPA profits uses after tax profits, but not adjusted for IVA and CCA after tax profits. <br /><br />For a long time I've used the adjusted version in the belief that was better, but I'm puzzled by the big drop in adjusted after tax profits in the first quarter, so more recently I've just used the unadjusted after tax number.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13176756867673847872014-12-04T05:36:57.571-08:002014-12-04T05:36:57.571-08:00Scott: Recently you posted a valuation chart using...Scott: Recently you posted a valuation chart using S&P vs NIPA profits. Was that before / after tax profits? And with / without IVA & CCA? And curious on your best measure for corp profit growth and why. ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17245326419890754656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75406998742779919912014-12-03T23:32:45.822-08:002014-12-03T23:32:45.822-08:00Carter: all yields are not headed to zero. Only th...Carter: all yields are not headed to zero. Only the yields on risk-free instruments are unusually low, reflecting pervasive risk aversion. Earnings yields on equities are still quite attractive. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77842517791159995632014-12-03T18:13:49.734-08:002014-12-03T18:13:49.734-08:00Thank you very much, Scott. That huge number is a ...Thank you very much, Scott. That huge number is a mystery to me. Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50777638054793234132014-12-03T14:15:19.062-08:002014-12-03T14:15:19.062-08:00Interesting, but does this really measure risk ave...Interesting, but does this really measure risk aversion, or does it represent the flood of money in the markets driving all yields to zero: simple supply of funds exceeding investment opportunities.<br /><br />Equity market CAPE etc don't seem to confirmCarter the Examinerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03236360257016629080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65036680081672014162014-12-03T12:17:13.534-08:002014-12-03T12:17:13.534-08:00It may seem perverse, but it may be low interest r...It may seem perverse, but it may be low interest rates actually increase the impulse to save. The Federal Funds rate and money velocity have declined together, steadily, for decades. Just look at government employees who don't have to save for retirement. The ones I know spend all their money and have no savings.<br /><br />I also think there is a new attitude today that is operating to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44503698705561411802014-12-03T09:04:46.402-08:002014-12-03T09:04:46.402-08:00William: according to the Fed, U.S. banks are hold...William: according to the Fed, U.S. banks are holding over $7.5 trillion in retail savings deposits. CDs are not included in that figure, nor are institutional or retail MMFs, both of which are only a fraction of this figure. Bank savings deposits are up from about $4 trillion just before the financial crisis hit in late 2008.<br />Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75292580881171918692014-12-03T07:02:23.310-08:002014-12-03T07:02:23.310-08:00Obviously 4%+ growth in the 1990s and 2000s is uns...Obviously 4%+ growth in the 1990s and 2000s is unsustainable. Better to have stable slow growth and just let everyone bitch about it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64847225634777183072014-12-03T06:08:51.488-08:002014-12-03T06:08:51.488-08:00Scott, who do you believe owns the "$7.5 tril...Scott, who do you believe owns the "$7.5 trillion in savings deposits paying almost nothing"?? Are these ordinary savings deposits that individuals buy? Are CDs lumped in this category? Or are there some unusual types of savings deposits that large investors or corporations use? <br /><br />I am always staggered by this number each time you post it. I believe it is almost twice the Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.com