tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7186640361020990871..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Another wall of worryScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38487895573836232722016-02-15T15:17:36.171-08:002016-02-15T15:17:36.171-08:00Scott, the UK press has been full of this ex-centr...Scott, the UK press has been full of this ex-central banker's very alarming forecast (he apparently was one of the few to predict the 2008 crash). Would love to know what you make of his comments !<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.htmlRobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17340744449510019222016-02-13T07:21:23.315-08:002016-02-13T07:21:23.315-08:00Umm... reading these comments gives inpart a "...Umm... reading these comments gives inpart a "why" gold is rising...<br /><br />William... thanks for the questions... I was believing that everyone understood negative rates and the markets.... <br /><br />Keep the questions coming. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17895299860743252299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91709925571497118562016-02-12T17:23:07.403-08:002016-02-12T17:23:07.403-08:00Negative interest on reserves is like designing a ...Negative interest on reserves is like designing a play from your own end zone.<br /><br />You should never be there. A central bank should maintain moderate rates of inflation and mild positive interest rates. Those are the most conducive to real growth.<br /><br />The sad thing is, the Fed treats 2% inflation as a inviolate sacred ceiling not to be approached when it should actually treat 2% Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50725466671334327482016-02-12T09:36:55.371-08:002016-02-12T09:36:55.371-08:00In my mind, negative interest rates are a monetary...In my mind, negative interest rates are a monetary perversion that I can't get my head around -- additionally, the only effect negative rates have had thus far in Europe and Japan has been to cause companies to pre-pay their taxes -- said another way, I can see how central banks and governments win via negative interest rates, but I see no advantages rendered to Main Street and the economy atMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43710404576055823932016-02-12T09:34:59.634-08:002016-02-12T09:34:59.634-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17601757668597404782016-02-12T09:10:26.548-08:002016-02-12T09:10:26.548-08:00William, re negative interest rates: This is a ver...William, re negative interest rates: This is a very important topic that needs further discussion. In principle, negative interest rates imposed by a central bank seem like a very bad idea. The idea behind it is that negative rates will compel banks to lend money to the private sector rather than to the central bank. That's akin to destroying the demand for money, and what sense does that Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61552584579374091682016-02-12T08:19:36.666-08:002016-02-12T08:19:36.666-08:00I am most uncomfortable with the notion that the m...I am most uncomfortable with the notion that the monetary challenges facing the world are somehow psychological rather than structural...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29113984499534376302016-02-12T08:08:23.239-08:002016-02-12T08:08:23.239-08:00John ("What could cause the pipes to freeze?&...John ("What could cause the pipes to freeze?"): Great question and analogy. I prefer to watch swap spreads instead of Libor, but the analogy applies to both. With swap spreads at very low levels, I might say that the pipes have a good dose of antifreeze and are very unlikely to freeze. When the financial markets are liquid and functioning, they act as a shock absorber (metaphor alert) Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66149821249116026562016-02-12T07:41:42.163-08:002016-02-12T07:41:42.163-08:00give us QEgive us QEmarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24900771403299713872016-02-12T07:20:17.792-08:002016-02-12T07:20:17.792-08:00Deutsche Bank buying back $5.4 billion of CoCos mi...Deutsche Bank buying back $5.4 billion of CoCos might make a bit of a floor here.<br />Supply/Demand market indicators remain above Jan 20 lows. <br />Bottom still in place....so far.<br />I smell capitulation.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87316216558824812002016-02-12T06:56:17.935-08:002016-02-12T06:56:17.935-08:00I like reading this data blog but have to admit no...I like reading this data blog but have to admit not understanding much of it. In 2008 an economist compared the situation where the Libor went to 400-plus to the economy's plumbing freezing up. I haven't dumped stocks yet because I figure lower energy costs should be eventually stimulative. What is out there now that would cause the pipes to freeze?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47959522489851007902016-02-12T03:37:52.705-08:002016-02-12T03:37:52.705-08:00Are the Eurozone swap spreads behaving similar to ...Are the Eurozone swap spreads behaving similar to the spreads you presented in the article above? If they are then why do you think European bank shares are collapsing? Fear of negative interest rates?Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47056332073614907742016-02-12T02:57:41.657-08:002016-02-12T02:57:41.657-08:00xr-3609. Just read franzlischka link, very intere...xr-3609. Just read franzlischka link, very interesting. I have heard from some others of the impact of SWF selling. Scott, would be interested in your perspective. ThanksDavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10440284139905983044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6322109174147049272016-02-11T21:49:09.303-08:002016-02-11T21:49:09.303-08:00Scott's analysis is objectively data driven an...Scott's analysis is objectively data driven and he is not afraid to change his mind. However, it does not seem plausible that the FED can do a 180 degree turn from tightening to QE with any face saving credibility, absent a great deal more "panic". In effect, will the FED change it's mind? <br /><br />For those who like Scott's work (otherwise why would you be reading this?)xr-3609https://www.blogger.com/profile/08361430517471885323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13614747275793938082016-02-11T19:28:51.711-08:002016-02-11T19:28:51.711-08:00http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2016/02/t...http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2016/02/the-fed-will-take-a-pause-on-rate-hikes-an-indefinite-pause-the-sooner-they-admit-this-the-better-off-we-will-all-be-inde.htmlLawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20670426282629966932016-02-11T18:52:56.721-08:002016-02-11T18:52:56.721-08:00As the chart on this page demonstrates, comparing ...As the chart on this page demonstrates, comparing oil prices in 2008 to current oil prices in the absence of the oil production differential, is ridiculous:<br /><br />http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-oil-yearly-production-charts/Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66354122840670113542016-02-11T18:36:11.929-08:002016-02-11T18:36:11.929-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85780162993925490052016-02-11T18:01:32.911-08:002016-02-11T18:01:32.911-08:00How much oil in terms of barrels per day was the w...How much oil in terms of barrels per day was the world producing on 2008?Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23201651028597706322016-02-11T17:52:41.275-08:002016-02-11T17:52:41.275-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51835078568255022702016-02-11T17:32:53.174-08:002016-02-11T17:32:53.174-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82056957513247734982016-02-11T17:15:56.093-08:002016-02-11T17:15:56.093-08:00Excellent blogging...a few cavils.
When 10-year T...Excellent blogging...a few cavils.<br /><br />When 10-year Treasuries offer 1.60% interest, I cannot believe money policy is "easy." Some people say the Fed has been recklessly easy since 2008 and probably <br />continuously since 1913.<br /><br />The result: 1.6% on 10-year Treasuries? <br /><br />The Fed is much too tight! <br /><br />I said the Federal Reserve will be able to raise Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42170160106362574382016-02-11T17:06:40.581-08:002016-02-11T17:06:40.581-08:001) Why isn't the Obama Administration putting ...1) Why isn't the Obama Administration putting pressure on the Saudi's to cut production; and <br /><br />2) The central banks need to find a way to take coordinated action. The trade war signals (which are not on our Fed) are helping no one. Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89388623597566645072016-02-11T14:59:37.005-08:002016-02-11T14:59:37.005-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11424246158173632112016-02-11T14:56:33.723-08:002016-02-11T14:56:33.723-08:00Scott-
Another reader thanking you for your ana...Scott- <br /><br />Another reader thanking you for your analysis. Things are very interesting right now. It will be very interesting to see how all this unfolds. :)<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61125531446538220942016-02-11T14:55:21.202-08:002016-02-11T14:55:21.202-08:00Bull markets climb the Wall of Worry. Bear markets...Bull markets climb the Wall of Worry. Bear markets descend the Slope of Hope.Clif Drokehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14608461795434758077noreply@blogger.com