tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7095426288164586150..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: If manufacturing is so bad, why is the market up?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55273802417938031792009-01-05T11:59:00.000-08:002009-01-05T11:59:00.000-08:00To the extent people consume less and save and inv...To the extent people consume less and save and invest the difference, this should be good for the future of the economy. Living standards can only rise if we make productive investments; they don't rise just because we buy more things.<BR/><BR/>I think a lot of the excesses of the past will not be repeated in the future, if only because so many people have been burned so badly. That's why I Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72913291195402927482009-01-05T08:42:00.000-08:002009-01-05T08:42:00.000-08:00Scott,How much cheaper does a television or car ne...Scott,<BR/><BR/>How much cheaper does a television or car need to get to spur people to take on more debt just to snatch up bargains regardless of actual need? <BR/><BR/>It is hard not to think that the vast majority of Americans have seen the recent past as a wake up sign and thus will gragually shift from a credit consumption model to a more balanced save and purchase methodology.<BR/><BR/>If Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41071779997883041132009-01-03T19:30:00.000-08:002009-01-03T19:30:00.000-08:00Tom, I think we agree. The market is up because pr...Tom, I think we agree. The market is up because prices went to ridiculously low levels.<BR/><BR/>Where we differ is on the future. I don't think credit fires need to reignited, I think that prices need to adjust in order to stimulate new demand and new investment. I think prices have readjusted a lot already, and we may be nearing the end of the adjustment.<BR/><BR/>Your view is that the end is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22996792369648354512009-01-03T07:03:00.000-08:002009-01-03T07:03:00.000-08:00Since when can you expect a rational explanation f...Since when can you expect a rational explanation for all market moves? Couldn't we simply be getting a long-overdue bear market rally from an oversold condition of historic proportions?<BR/><BR/>I think the impact on the real economy will be much broader than you are suggesting. Unless the Fed "succeeds" in relighting the credit expansion fires, we are going to see a pretty severe hit on retail Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74471167266600885532009-01-02T14:07:00.000-08:002009-01-02T14:07:00.000-08:00Thanks. I've drawn the zero line where I think it ...Thanks. I've drawn the zero line where I think it makes sense, and that is where things appear to correlate best. My line is not necessarily going to be in the same place as theirs.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90816729424975318172009-01-02T13:55:00.000-08:002009-01-02T13:55:00.000-08:00New to the site. Good stuff. Not to nitpick but is...New to the site. Good stuff. Not to nitpick but isn't the ISM=0 GDP line now at 41.1%? Maybe I'm reading the post at ISM incorrectly.theshoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06074506566868997663noreply@blogger.com