tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6932853071007681750..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Financial conditions are actually quite normalScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12910449348854828722013-01-07T07:42:21.241-08:002013-01-07T07:42:21.241-08:00A recession is a vicious interplay among output in...A recession is a vicious interplay among output input employment, income and sales. When you look at 2001, <a href="http://ppiclaimsscotland.co/ppi-claims-on-old-payment-protection-insurance-policies" rel="nofollow">PPI Claims</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01813150344575149922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42785624332374762552012-07-30T08:24:18.086-07:002012-07-30T08:24:18.086-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16091629980311184265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19086716968839692662012-07-11T10:04:32.118-07:002012-07-11T10:04:32.118-07:00You can replace the Bloomberg financial conditions...You can replace the Bloomberg financial conditions index with credit spreads and get mostly the same result.<br /><br />Also, credit spreads and stock prices are usually highly correlated in the short run, but not the long run.<br /><br />That credit yields are low is not an indicator of normal conditions. It is an indicator of low marginal productivity of capital. There aren't a lot of David Merkelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073877918072914309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8173801050514447632012-07-11T08:20:45.240-07:002012-07-11T08:20:45.240-07:00The Lakshman Achuthan interview was very interstin...The Lakshman Achuthan interview was very intersting. He is now saying that the economy "feels like it's in recession" whereas he said last year that the economy was about to collapse Q1, latest Q2 and that the unemployment rate would go up substantially. He's now using whatever definition of a recesssion suits him to say his call was correct.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29649900500879259502012-07-11T07:57:33.857-07:002012-07-11T07:57:33.857-07:00Please, I beg you to talk to someone with financia...Please, I beg you to talk to someone with financial quant background, not another self-proclaimed economic pundit, about how to correctly calculate correlation. For two independent financial time series, it's close to impossible to get 94% correlation. Correlation for stocks should be on returns, not prices! That's statistics 101.Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60314133650182545082012-07-11T05:10:08.619-07:002012-07-11T05:10:08.619-07:00no price/index/metric is knowable as to real value...no price/index/metric is knowable as to real value in the face of monolithic monetary policy across the globe. at some point the monetary policy will return to being neutral and then we can evaluate values.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18918951310317527882012-07-10T19:24:19.574-07:002012-07-10T19:24:19.574-07:00ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recess...<b>ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession</b><br /><br />July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance."<br /><br />“It is not our definition. It is the definition of what a business cycle is, which was established by my mentor Jeffrey Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20713648094277948272012-07-10T19:13:58.643-07:002012-07-10T19:13:58.643-07:00Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Compo...<b>Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs)</b><br /><br />"09/07/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, <b>point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and a more marked slowdown in most major non-OECD economies</b>.<br /><br />The CLIs for JapanWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3558939001010722412012-07-10T15:49:57.998-07:002012-07-10T15:49:57.998-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43991493475647363272012-07-10T13:14:55.172-07:002012-07-10T13:14:55.172-07:00The economic state is gloomy at best -- now is the...The economic state is gloomy at best -- now is the time to buy -- let's hope the economy gets gloomier soon -- I am eager buy cheap equities during this period of maximum pessimism...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7609093900929923512012-07-10T10:11:47.064-07:002012-07-10T10:11:47.064-07:00They just had an auction for
32 billion 3 year not...They just had an auction for<br />32 billion 3 year notes... .36%<br />incredible....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.com