tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6851677683835091790..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Monetary policy updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57584337737962924222009-10-01T12:52:53.053-07:002009-10-01T12:52:53.053-07:00'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary...'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon'--Milton Friedman<br /><br />Why do policy makers and economists think this natural law has been repealed? It hasn't.<br /><br />Inflation is a hidden tax on savings and investment, yet we allow politicians and their appointees to create it. Find and elect honest candidates ASAP. Only you can prevent inflationary fires.djakelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06247798800719389756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51304593806852949542009-09-30T06:23:16.486-07:002009-09-30T06:23:16.486-07:00Even if the Fed makes a mess of things, that is no...Even if the Fed makes a mess of things, that is no reason to think that all currencies are going down the drain. But if we are on the verge of a major reflation in the U.S., then the obvious investment choices would be tangible assets, since they would almost certainly perform better than nontangible assets and financial assets. Invest in commodities (still cheap in real terms by historical Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80868437152933428062009-09-29T22:20:51.157-07:002009-09-29T22:20:51.157-07:00Ok, All currencies will be devalued. We are headed...Ok, All currencies will be devalued. We are headed for global inflation. Commodities will be plentiful but expensive. What should and investor in Argentina have done in the 70's. Remember the option to invest in other currencies is off the table in this case. So that answer must remain in Argentina.MadTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993644388485131972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16927698113134972702009-09-29T15:25:38.959-07:002009-09-29T15:25:38.959-07:00I think you're too hung up on demand as the dr...I think you're too hung up on demand as the driver of inflation. That's Phillips Curve thinking, and there is precious little evidence that inflation works that way.<br /><br />I learned about inflation the hard way, living four years in Argentina in the late 1970s. The currency literally collapsed against gold, the dollar, commodities and real estate. Inflation averaged about 7% a month.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89535939474680952482009-09-29T10:31:53.290-07:002009-09-29T10:31:53.290-07:00Before I go any further, your blog is fantastic. I...Before I go any further, your blog is fantastic. I have been reading for about 18 months now. Love it. Your level headed analysis last from October 2008 to April 2009 helped give me confidence (and knowledge) to make money. I have never written before because I had always agreed. Now, however, I still think you are over reacting in regard to inflation. Gold is a commodity. I believe, just like Comment2010https://www.blogger.com/profile/12651016359603416272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21661800921283573142009-09-29T06:05:42.102-07:002009-09-29T06:05:42.102-07:00Your point is well taken, since every currency has...Your point is well taken, since every currency has fallen vis a vis gold, the ultimate standard. But when all currencies are devalued against gold, then it makes no sense to expect deflation. Currency weakness is where inflation starts.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47428605668811316182009-09-29T01:36:19.313-07:002009-09-29T01:36:19.313-07:00How can this action weaken the dollar? Every other...How can this action weaken the dollar? Every other country is engaging in the same behavior. Even China. Is any other country not? All currencies should be devalued. However, against what? Commodities? China has so many commodities stockpiled their demand must ease soon. The have no where to keep putting it. Global factories are running well below capacity and the consumer shows no sign of Comment2010https://www.blogger.com/profile/12651016359603416272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2981978466291038942009-09-28T16:18:20.077-07:002009-09-28T16:18:20.077-07:00Clarification: the Fed would need to make a series...Clarification: the Fed would need to make a series of mistakes over an extended period before inflation got to double-digit levels.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29125419735914549422009-09-28T16:17:31.656-07:002009-09-28T16:17:31.656-07:00It would take many years, I believe, before things...It would take many years, I believe, before things could get as bad as they were in the early 80s. <br /><br />What the Fed is doing is potentially very inflationary, but it's not guaranteed to be inflationary.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27725419852187954012009-09-28T09:32:24.676-07:002009-09-28T09:32:24.676-07:00Soooo, in light of the monetary base chart in toda...Soooo, in light of the monetary base chart in today's post, why won't we see the blue, red, grey, and green bars soon shown in Friday's post?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.com