tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6839365168408788121..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Weekly claims' progress derailedScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86218935047356730192010-02-26T01:24:27.563-08:002010-02-26T01:24:27.563-08:00Another way of looking at it....
National job...Another way of looking at it....<br /><br /> National jobless claims less Califonia jobless claims on a 52 week moving average basis is now<br />7.3% off its high....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33270165516715588952010-02-25T11:22:08.092-08:002010-02-25T11:22:08.092-08:00As a side note...I also track the states' 52 w...As a side note...I also track the states' 52 week moving avergage of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims. All major states are showing improvement...New York,Ohio,Pennsylvania Illinois,<br />Michigan,Texas,North Carolina,Florida ( finally) except one. And it is a major one. California hit its high on December 13th at 75,124.Today's numbers have California at 74,878 ,only .3% off its broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70296513727528074212010-02-25T11:02:23.054-08:002010-02-25T11:02:23.054-08:00brodero: interesting observation, thanks. I should...brodero: interesting observation, thanks. I should add that while SA claims are rising, NSA claims are falling rather sharply. The reality is sometimes very different from what the numbers say.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14995551047768822102010-02-25T10:53:36.066-08:002010-02-25T10:53:36.066-08:00I don't see any evidence of a double dip reces...I don't see any evidence of a double dip recession. I do see lots of evidence that people are still unusually risk-averse, however. That's why cash yields zero these days—everyone is desperate for safety, despite the huge amount of debt being sold by the U.S. Treasury. There is plenty of skepticism about the recovery. That's why, as a contrarian, I remain optimistic. To seek the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85901684930245682652010-02-25T10:23:04.287-08:002010-02-25T10:23:04.287-08:00The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjust...The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims ( which has a .91 correlation with changes in the unemployment rate) continues to decline. It is now at 542,355. The high was on October 31st at 576,928.This average is now 6% off its high. Curiously this average peaked in 1982-1983 recession on 1/15/83 at 578,594. 16 weeks later<br />( same amount of time in this recession) thisbroderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53542201460377011462010-02-25T10:10:26.540-08:002010-02-25T10:10:26.540-08:00Scott,
Could this be evidence of the feared doubl...Scott,<br /><br />Could this be evidence of the feared doubl-dip recession? I've seen some statements by billionaries like Carl Ichan that there is going to be a "bloodbath" in the market when this happens. I have heard from other sources that the really rich investors are still holding cash because they don't think the recovery will hold.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com