tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6836248318540174494..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Argentina just got a $5 billion lesson in the Laffer CurveScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53189334898813813642018-05-15T10:39:53.935-07:002018-05-15T10:39:53.935-07:00Tell-Tale: Given today's action (May 15), Arge...Tell-Tale: Given today's action (May 15), Argentina has survived this latest crisis. The peso had fallen to 25, and has now rallied by to less than 24. The peso was cheap enough and Lebac rates were high enough that the market was able to clear.<br /><br />I keep going back to the one thing that has caused all this instability and uncertainty, and it is the fact that the money supply has beenScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70029296759375233482018-05-14T13:52:36.575-07:002018-05-14T13:52:36.575-07:00Scott, Thanks for all your posts. I've been re...Scott, Thanks for all your posts. I've been reading them for years. This post was very helpful. By the way, I worked for Dr. Laffer for 5 great years. Now I have an economic research firm and a hedge fund. I have been invested in Argentina for almost 2 years and this has taken me a bit by surprise. I have a couple of questions.<br /><br />Are they going to reverse the capital gains tax? In Tell-Tale Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02674549122975426531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-996946622869966642018-05-10T15:02:56.448-07:002018-05-10T15:02:56.448-07:00Unknown, re Fed printing money like Argentina: The...Unknown, re Fed printing money like Argentina: There is a world of difference between what the Fed has done and what the Argentine central bank has done. I've been discussing this many times over the years, and you can find an extensive discussion from 5 years ago here: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-fed-is-not-printing-money.html<br /><br />Although the Fed has indeed purchasedScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10579050982411964862018-05-09T19:18:26.267-07:002018-05-09T19:18:26.267-07:00It is my understanding that a major purchaser of U...It is my understanding that a major purchaser of US federal debt is its Central Bank, leading directly to expansion in broad money supply. Therefore the distinction between virtuous dealing in the global debt markets by the Treasury and profligate use of the Argentine printing press is weakened considerably, no?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09969768560243143503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12211000123784074342018-05-08T08:25:49.341-07:002018-05-08T08:25:49.341-07:00Benjamin, re John Cochrane: Cochrane argues that l...Benjamin, re John Cochrane: Cochrane argues that large deficits ultimately lead to high/crippling inflation because most governments with huge deficits inevitably resort to money-printing as a way to deal with their deficits. Print lots of money, create lots of inflation, and the real value of all the debt they have incurred plunges. It's called inflating your way out of debt. <br /><br />In Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6143625755844334862018-05-07T17:11:21.611-07:002018-05-07T17:11:21.611-07:00One of the exasperating aspects being a layman who...One of the exasperating aspects being a layman who likes macroeconomics is that there always seems to be another highly intelligent expert with another point of view.<br /><br /> John Cochrane's latest blog is another example of what he calls the fiscal theory of monetary policy.<br /><br /> In shorthand, it is too-large federal deficits that ultimately lead to crippling inflation.<br /><br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24406032830303803842018-05-07T17:07:10.244-07:002018-05-07T17:07:10.244-07:00Peter: Unfortunately I know a lot more about Argen...Peter: Unfortunately I know a lot more about Argentina than I do about Japan. So I just don’t know the answer to your question. But I would add that Japan obviously does not have an inflation problem like Argentina’s so I would have to guess there are no obvious parallels between what the two central banks are doing.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89718598741632763672018-05-07T16:28:25.732-07:002018-05-07T16:28:25.732-07:00Hello Scott. Thank you for another great article. ...Hello Scott. Thank you for another great article. Is Japan not in the same situation as Argentina now with the JCB buying all the debt refinancings? <br />And new debt for that matter?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />PeterPeterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18283279954320858544noreply@blogger.com