tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6787444550267758836..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: So. California bankruptcy filings plungeScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10054981368017614372012-07-17T06:00:12.678-07:002012-07-17T06:00:12.678-07:00Gross Says U.S. Nearing Recession as Goldman Sachs...<b>Gross Says U.S. Nearing Recession as Goldman Sachs Cuts Forecast</b><br /><br />"Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross said the U.S. is approaching a recession as economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Deutsche Bank AG lowered their forecasts for growth."<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gross-says-u-nearing-recession-023735254.html</a>Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5824111363331577462012-07-16T20:52:28.285-07:002012-07-16T20:52:28.285-07:00I don’t think the BLS jobs report can be trusted. ...I don’t think the BLS jobs report can be trusted. Nobody can figure out why there is so much discrepancy.<br /><br />Calpers (Calif. Public Employee Pension Plan) got a 1% annual return when their objective is set at 7.5%. This is a several hundred billion dollar bill for the taxpayer. François Hollande won on a platform that the rest of Europe should share in France’s deficit. Soon, as Dr. Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63057440654592816802012-07-16T20:10:52.718-07:002012-07-16T20:10:52.718-07:00That's a good question William, one I was perp...That's a good question William, one I was perplexed at. The only thing I can think of is, March is the month banks pay their annual bonsuses (and remember, the period for each jobs report is from the middle of one month to the next, so April's jobs report included the latter half of March). Perhaps bonuses were larger this year than last year, resulting in an increase in withholding taxesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69429303379278730022012-07-16T19:52:18.567-07:002012-07-16T19:52:18.567-07:00Unknown said...
"With Friday's number now...<b>Unknown</b> said...<br />"With Friday's number now in, the y-o-y growth rate of withholding tax receipts for the July jobs report period is 7.83%. This is easily the best number of the year, beating even April's 6.23%."<br /><br />But April's job numbers were not as great as you might expect. Do you have any idea why?<br /><br />Thank you,,,WilliamWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70294502750132524702012-07-16T18:09:47.188-07:002012-07-16T18:09:47.188-07:00With Friday's number now in, the y-o-y growth ...With Friday's number now in, the y-o-y growth rate of withholding tax receipts for the July jobs report period is 7.83%. This is easily the best number of the year, beating even April's 6.23%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7726534587477449662012-07-16T15:40:35.181-07:002012-07-16T15:40:35.181-07:00@Squire, you bring up a good point -- Federal fund...@Squire, you bring up a good point -- Federal funding for the California high speed rail is an example of a "stealth" bailout for California -- Obama is probably California's biggest fan -- so once again, how is California going to settle its budget deficit for this year -- deep cuts or devastating tax increases...?McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77077588581080728582012-07-16T15:11:57.235-07:002012-07-16T15:11:57.235-07:00Françoise Hollande has a novel approach to unemplo...Françoise Hollande has a novel approach to unemployment. Maximize company costs by not letting them layoff anyone. Who needs to be competitive anyway.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39548678636755968642012-07-16T14:45:51.826-07:002012-07-16T14:45:51.826-07:00Downward Revisions: Q2 GDP Tracking around 1.1%
&...<b>Downward Revisions: Q2 GDP Tracking around 1.1%</b><br /><br />"From Merrill Lynch: <br />Today’s weak retail sales report leaves Q2 GDP tracking a meager 1.1%. We expect the economy to remain weak through the rest of the year with growth of only 1.3% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. This translates to GDP growth of only 1.3% Q4/Q4, significantly below the Fed’s forecast of 1.9-2.4%.<br /> <br />Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38179476137499080202012-07-16T09:42:46.542-07:002012-07-16T09:42:46.542-07:00Thank you very much for half the funding for our h...Thank you very much for half the funding for our high speed rail between Madera and Clovis.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6034131633704737462012-07-16T05:09:47.591-07:002012-07-16T05:09:47.591-07:00California is the next "too big to fail"...California is the next "too big to fail" challenge for America -- as far as I am concerned, I vote for "let California fail..." Said another way, not a penny in Federal funds (or stealth funds) should go toward a bailout of California...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3495676254401021882012-07-16T05:01:37.199-07:002012-07-16T05:01:37.199-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.loopbankruptcyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08895695837619039659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9829955258743933112012-07-16T02:17:32.075-07:002012-07-16T02:17:32.075-07:00BTW, if any of you want to be simply astonished, r...BTW, if any of you want to be simply astonished, read this:<br /><br />Don Reagn (Reagan Treasury Secy) wants to move Fed powers into the Treasury as Volcker is too tight.<br /><br />Inflation was 4-5 percent.<br /><br />http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=hUBVAAAAIBAJ&sjid=55QDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5524,8412282&hl=enBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21183410224074405872012-07-15T19:03:11.901-07:002012-07-15T19:03:11.901-07:00Squire:
There is a lot of foolish federal agency ...Squire:<br /><br />There is a lot of foolish federal agency spending, domestic and military.<br /><br />The reality is, when it comes to agency spending, once you get past Defense, Homeland Security and the VA, the rest is relative pennies.<br /><br />I appreciate your non-partisan candor.<br /><br />I concur (sadly) with Jon's comments: Often, the fight between D and Rs is who gets to Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1953666608583999642012-07-15T14:18:38.355-07:002012-07-15T14:18:38.355-07:00Rejecting the bastardized Keynesian concept that a...Rejecting the bastardized Keynesian concept that all that matters is aggregate demand, federal spending on life style is least effective.<br /><br />Military spending is valuable because it protects ‘our’ oil in the Middle East. It keeps seas lanes open. It also promotes the U.S. overseas and leads the way for U.S. corporations to move into new markets.<br /><br />The quickest way to reduce Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73832386042889430562012-07-15T12:12:02.059-07:002012-07-15T12:12:02.059-07:00Re: ISM forecast. I believe ISM forecast GDP grow...Re: ISM forecast. I believe ISM forecast GDP growth at 5-6% when it was at 60. Also, I recall Marmico forecasting negative GDP as well a couple of years ago. And don't forget our friend Roubini who has been forecasting the end of the world since 2006. I remember back in 2009 he said that the stock market would crash so bad it would be shut down for a week. Perhaps all economist suck at Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40796297367153402172012-07-15T11:44:26.526-07:002012-07-15T11:44:26.526-07:00Benjamin:
You are exactly right. Boost defense sp...Benjamin:<br /><br />You are exactly right. Boost defense spending and cut taxes to juice the economy. Worry about paying for it later. That's the way The Gipper did it.<br /><br />The fight between Rs & Ds isn't so much about more or less spending, it's about who gets the keys to the Treasury.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22141662722920193212012-07-15T09:09:15.623-07:002012-07-15T09:09:15.623-07:00And how's your forecasting record, marmico??? ...And how's your forecasting record, marmico??? Apparently incredibly pristine.L.A.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17235323298066514444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22169251964472172702012-07-15T04:37:13.257-07:002012-07-15T04:37:13.257-07:00That's not really true or fair
Huh. In the 11...<i>That's not really true or fair</i><br /><br />Huh. In the 11 quarters since the Great Recession ended, GDP was 3%+ 4 times. That's cleaning someone's clock. It will be 4 of 12 when the BEA prints Q2 2012 later this month. And revisions may make it 3 of 12.<br /><br />Grannis was calling for 5-6% growth when the ISM manufacturing index was printing 60.<br /><br />His forecasting marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84705824551059681182012-07-14T19:57:19.488-07:002012-07-14T19:57:19.488-07:00Hi Benjamin, I agree with you that the GOP is not ...Hi Benjamin, I agree with you that the GOP is not likely to approve new Federal spending assuming Romney is elected -- however, new Federal spending is equally unlikely to be approved by Congress even if Obama is reelected -- of course, we have some BIG potential outlays coming in the form of state bailouts, which I fear Congress might support for fear of causing the nation to fall into McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24611649477767627052012-07-14T19:41:21.766-07:002012-07-14T19:41:21.766-07:00Federal outlays lead to jobs?
Not if you read Gra...Federal outlays lead to jobs?<br /><br />Not if you read Grannis, and I agree.<br /><br />The GOP, hoever, believes federal outlays o lead to job creation. If the outlays are military in nature.<br /><br />Romney wants even more military outlays.<br /><br />By BRUCE BARTLETT<br /><br />Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78637432812865379002012-07-14T19:30:49.441-07:002012-07-14T19:30:49.441-07:00Where is California going to find the money to clo...Where is California going to find the money to close its current fiscal year deficit (?) -- the state is already behind about $9 billion -- I have to wonder if California might already be getting some kind of "secret bailout" from either the Fed or the Treasury -- I would like to see California cut spending dramatically -- letting California "hit the wall" is essential for theMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73230572639906305962012-07-14T19:27:54.112-07:002012-07-14T19:27:54.112-07:00Nice to see bankruptcies going down, although I se...Nice to see bankruptcies going down, although I sense everyone who could go bankrupt has. Also, this may reflect a decrease in new start-ups since the recession, and start-ups go bankrupt a lot. <br /><br />On Obama vs. Romney: Really, some people think there will be an actual difference in macroeconomic policy? (BTW, Fed policy is also crucial).<br /><br />Was it Clinton who ran surpluses?<br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71420717748036879302012-07-14T19:05:43.646-07:002012-07-14T19:05:43.646-07:00Marmico -
"Anyone who took the under cleane...Marmico - <br /><br />"Anyone who took the under cleaned his clock"<br /><br />That's not really true or fair. There were plenty that bet on financial recession, depression, deflation, or armageddon. You could say they took the under, but so far, their calls are farther off mark than a call of 3% growth. We'll just have to wait for the end of the story to know which theme randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30874740893739949602012-07-14T17:17:54.744-07:002012-07-14T17:17:54.744-07:00NormanB: that's a very good observation. But f...NormanB: that's a very good observation. But from an economist's perspective that is all ancient history—water under the bridge. We've known for a long time that the California economy is in bad shape and unemployment is high and foreclosures have been rampant. What's important is the change on the margin. The tide of bankruptcies is now receding, which means the economy is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40967542821057262302012-07-14T16:39:11.360-07:002012-07-14T16:39:11.360-07:00I guess that looks good but since 2008 about 470,0...I guess that looks good but since 2008 about 470,000 bankruptcies have been filed. If there are 19,000,000 people in this area and the avg family is 2.5 people then 6.2% of the population is living under a financial cloud. And considering the unemployment rate in CA they have had very little chance of improving their condition.NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.com