tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6302642543138420275..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Upward pressure on bond yields is becoming intenseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10298369805315530782012-02-13T09:57:57.050-08:002012-02-13T09:57:57.050-08:00Thank you very much Scott for your thoughts.Thank you very much Scott for your thoughts.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9616872458091445072012-02-13T08:17:53.229-08:002012-02-13T08:17:53.229-08:00Rob: being optimistic is not the same as saying th...Rob: being optimistic is not the same as saying the economy is in great shape. Indeed, it's clear that the economy is doing miserably compared to other recoveries. I'm optimistic about the future because I think it will be better than the market expects. The market expects things to remain terrible, and I think things can continue to improve on the margin, albeit slowly. The economy is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86813253843971099972012-02-13T05:25:57.031-08:002012-02-13T05:25:57.031-08:00Rob,
Buy some TBT, a double inverse short ETF on t...Rob,<br />Buy some TBT, a double inverse short ETF on the 20 year TBond price.Tom Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00564389760719510546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44433118970527763512012-02-13T01:09:38.930-08:002012-02-13T01:09:38.930-08:00Dear Scott,
It's all very well to be relentles...Dear Scott,<br />It's all very well to be relentlessly optimistic but what do you have to say about this:<br /><br />http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_9694000/9694094.stm<br /><br />?!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37417045037218124482012-02-12T16:02:48.842-08:002012-02-12T16:02:48.842-08:00Dear Scott,
How can one capitalise on a rising bon...Dear Scott,<br />How can one capitalise on a rising bond yield, eg would this likely be accompanied by a stronger US dollar ?<br />Thank you.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4123730435367548442012-02-12T07:38:27.304-08:002012-02-12T07:38:27.304-08:00Bond yields could be low for some time because the...Bond yields could be low for some time because the variety of "credit risk free" bonds is diminished. By that I mean that prior to the demise of Fannie and Freddie and the current pressure on municipal entities and the credit pressure on foreign sovereigns, US treasury bonds are the only game in town.Tom Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00564389760719510546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71355100431230043302012-02-11T11:07:17.349-08:002012-02-11T11:07:17.349-08:00Bob--
I agree. But we have established the fact t...Bob--<br />I agree. But we have established the fact that some groups--such as rural America and farmers--are entitled to permanent subsidies. Now the banking industry gets bailouts. GM and Chrysler got bailouts. Military contractors are on a perma-bailout system. <br /><br />Once we have created a weakling, knock-kneed economy as we have, there is no moral ground to stand on for refusing Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10945802666698636822012-02-10T22:15:50.690-08:002012-02-10T22:15:50.690-08:00Benjamin said "I afraid the tone for bailouts...Benjamin said "I afraid the tone for bailouts was set at the top. <br /><br />If Wall Street bankers can get bailout, really we should't help the family guy with a mortgage? If farmers get perennial bailouts, the guy moonlighting doesn't also deserve a break?<br /><br />If military contractors can just raise their prices and get the money, the small business guy shouldn't get Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80440470341704782262012-02-10T19:31:31.531-08:002012-02-10T19:31:31.531-08:00I certainly hope we see yields move higher instead...I certainly hope we see yields move higher instead of the equity market moving to the downside. I assume a lot of institutional investors are getting itchy trading fingers after such a strong start for risk assets ytd. As always thanks for your terrific insight.TJDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07486218163018436202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3859592427792593642012-02-10T18:55:22.766-08:002012-02-10T18:55:22.766-08:00Hans: Re "stocks aren't cheap just becaus...Hans: Re "stocks aren't cheap just because bond yields are suppressed." Of course not. But when Treasury yields are extremely low, the Fed has the pedal to the metal, the Vix is elevated, credit spreads are relatively high, and PE ratios are well below historical norms at a time when corporate profits are at record-high levels, then I think it is pretty non-controversial to concludeScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72520066633468518322012-02-10T14:30:55.342-08:002012-02-10T14:30:55.342-08:00William, I am a trader. I started pyramiding long...William, I am a trader. I started pyramiding long 8/9/11, 9/26/11, and added longs intraday 10/4/11 below 1100. Sold it all and went short 10/31/11 and started pyramiding long again 11/28/11 and 12/20/11. I may achieve 100% long on the next pull back and I will consider standing pat instead of trading.<br /><br />Calafia Beach Pundit has been the single most education website I visit. I am Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84530112337447899522012-02-10T14:15:14.089-08:002012-02-10T14:15:14.089-08:00Benjamin, you prove my point.Benjamin, you prove my point.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84375806833663980942012-02-10T11:56:29.569-08:002012-02-10T11:56:29.569-08:00Squire said...
"I will go long 100% into stoc...<b>Squire</b> said...<br />"I will go long 100% into stocks all at once when my technicals call out a prospective rally...If it goes below 1300 I will be thrilled."<br /><br />Oh, Wow! A retracement to 1300 on the S&P. <br /><br />I guess you didn't believe Scott Grannis' excellent bottom call last September when his VIX/ 10 year US Bond ratio peaked and the S&P neared Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10958799144037688402012-02-10T11:37:41.360-08:002012-02-10T11:37:41.360-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16932780111297464862012-02-10T11:32:26.646-08:002012-02-10T11:32:26.646-08:00http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748...http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703518604577213671775601052.html?mod=BOL_da_udwsdHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81470015073356655462012-02-10T10:37:45.619-08:002012-02-10T10:37:45.619-08:00Squire---
I afraid the tone for bailouts was set ...Squire---<br /><br />I afraid the tone for bailouts was set at the top. <br /><br />If Wall Street bankers can get bailout, really we should't help the family guy with a mortgage? If farmers get perennial bailouts, the guy moonlighting doesn't also deserve a break?<br /><br />If military contractors can just raise their prices and get the money, the small business guy shouldn't get Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72521412140745137922012-02-10T10:29:35.182-08:002012-02-10T10:29:35.182-08:00I will go long 100% into stocks all at once when m...I will go long 100% into stocks all at once when my technicals call out a prospective rally. It will probably look like 11/28/11 or 12/20/11 again. Hopefully it won't look like the last week of Jan '12. Hopefully the market goes down to 1300. How lucky I will feel if it even goes to 1325. If it goes below 1300 I will be thrilled.<br /><br />Investors might start buying their chosen Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37692928097413500292012-02-10T08:47:51.831-08:002012-02-10T08:47:51.831-08:00Warren Buffet: Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds
htt...Warren Buffet: Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/</a>Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72004182406676131812012-02-10T08:29:52.896-08:002012-02-10T08:29:52.896-08:00I invite Scott Grannis to pursue this thought:
T...I invite Scott Grannis to pursue this thought: <br /><br />The Fed chose precisely the wrong time in 2007-8 to "fight inflation" that was emerging in commodities. <br /><br />They sunk a torpedo into the US economy, and dented commodities prices for a while. The US economy never fully recovered, but commodities prices have.<br /><br />So much for fighting global commodities prices withBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20495854802136842982012-02-10T07:57:45.443-08:002012-02-10T07:57:45.443-08:00Thank you for the most excellent thread, Mr Granni...Thank you for the most excellent thread, Mr Grannis!Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89657742903132710012012-02-09T16:31:05.574-08:002012-02-09T16:31:05.574-08:00Benjamin wrote:
"I enjoy your posts, but evid...<b>Benjamin</b> wrote:<br />"I enjoy your posts, but evidently there are two men using the same name and photo."<br /><br />I have noticed that also Benjamin - kind of like coin, two faces.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33639383673405719512012-02-09T14:04:41.617-08:002012-02-09T14:04:41.617-08:00Dr McKibben:
I enjoy your posts, but evidently th...Dr McKibben:<br /><br />I enjoy your posts, but evidently there are two men using the same name and photo. A sort of Jekyl and Hyde tag team.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79788701017249440372012-02-09T13:01:28.531-08:002012-02-09T13:01:28.531-08:00Increases in bond rates will devastate gold and si...Increases in bond rates will devastate gold and silver positions, which is why no one should be banking on gold or silver for their future -- hopefully everyone bought into dividend-paying stocks when the DOW was at less than 11,000 -- I expect the DOW to hit 36,000 by the end of decade -- however, the Federal budget problems will continue to get worse regardless -- the coming decoupling between McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41440994670094341572012-02-09T12:23:32.153-08:002012-02-09T12:23:32.153-08:00Yeah, and just wait for those yields on Japanese b...Yeah, and just wait for those yields on Japanese bonds. They are going to the moon, and have been for 20 years. Any day now. They will take off. Soon. Okay maybe next year. Or the year after that.<br /><br />Or mayhem we have global gluts of capital, as we have created huge and growing middle and upper classes with the ability to save money. A good thing.<br /><br />But capita is cheap due to Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79148182636410532412012-02-09T12:07:48.369-08:002012-02-09T12:07:48.369-08:00Higher Treasury yields aren't necessarily bad ...Higher Treasury yields aren't necessarily bad for high yield bonds, and in fact the two are often negatively correlated. Higher Treasury yields would be symptomatic of an improving economy and possibly higher inflation as well. This in turn implies stronger cash flows for borrowers, and thus lower default rates and tighter spreads for high yield debt.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com