tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6302482288308378551..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Still no sign of recessionScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46030356434701191422012-10-02T08:09:20.300-07:002012-10-02T08:09:20.300-07:00Ben: re the ISM/GDP issue, you are right that the ...Ben: re the ISM/GDP issue, you are right that the correlation has not been very tight in this recovery. Manufacturing has clearly done better than the rest of the economy. But things may be getting back to a better balance now. Time will tell. And as always, the chart only "suggests" what GDP might be. It's a guide, not an ironclad predictor.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51596943004266787102012-10-02T06:53:11.003-07:002012-10-02T06:53:11.003-07:00Scott,
Thank you for the post. I think you touch...Scott,<br /><br />Thank you for the post. I think you touched on some very important points, including the better than forecast ISM and the ongoing improvement in Eurozone swap spreads. I also agree with your conclusion on cash, it really is a horrific asset to hold in the current environment regardless of the emotional appeal it has. I much prefer have a fully invested balanced portfolio (i.eBenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08563382535082307584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1705860394314107572012-10-02T06:06:57.711-07:002012-10-02T06:06:57.711-07:00"prey" = "pray""prey" = "pray"Gloeschihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10705125909506053628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48756559633656255682012-10-02T06:05:24.697-07:002012-10-02T06:05:24.697-07:00Agree on uncertainty of recession, but a) once you...Agree on uncertainty of recession, but a) once you see a recession it (usually) is already over, and b), as Achutan (ECRI) points out, data gets revised downwards. Even Greenie was clueless we were in recession when asked a few days before Lehman.<br />Market is fearful of a recession, yes, but that doesn't mean it is priced for a recession. Consensus earnings estimates have still Gloeschihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10705125909506053628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48184565926199283702012-10-01T17:49:48.041-07:002012-10-01T17:49:48.041-07:00Thank you again for your excellent analysis and &q...Thank you again for your excellent analysis and "full disclosure".<br /><br />WilliamWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41418867863542650912012-10-01T15:06:28.632-07:002012-10-01T15:06:28.632-07:00Anything is possible, of course, but I don't t...Anything is possible, of course, but I don't think zero is very likely.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57531484297276719182012-10-01T13:56:13.595-07:002012-10-01T13:56:13.595-07:00Scott,
Brian Wesbury said today that it's pos...Scott,<br /><br />Brian Wesbury said today that it's possible GDP for 3Q will be close to zero due to the drought. What's are your thoughts on this?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com