tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post610665381647075794..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Job market steady as she goesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36234407620872552652011-11-02T14:34:47.842-07:002011-11-02T14:34:47.842-07:00No, not really. They're usually pretty accurat...No, not really. They're usually pretty accurate - once you get through the revisions and benchmark revisions at least.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60942654676074622062011-11-02T13:13:58.771-07:002011-11-02T13:13:58.771-07:00Unknown,
Isn't TrimTabs usually high on its e...Unknown,<br /><br />Isn't TrimTabs usually high on its estimates for job growth?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68941839346038774242011-11-02T11:59:08.759-07:002011-11-02T11:59:08.759-07:00TrimTabs says 160K jobs added in October.
Article...TrimTabs says 160K jobs added in October.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/11/02/adp-oct-private-sector-jobs-110k-vs-expected-100k/" rel="nofollow">Article</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35921434067274931432011-11-02T10:00:17.413-07:002011-11-02T10:00:17.413-07:00No nation should ever lose control of its currency...No nation should ever lose control of its currency; Milton Friedman said so.<br /><br />The Greeks, if they had the drachma, could inflate, and pay back the debt with cheaper drachmas (I hope they would also cut outlays and build an enforceable tax system).<br /><br />The inflating the supply would boost GDP as well (especially as tourists flooded Greece, which relies on tourism). <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82160533410176217202011-11-02T09:41:59.807-07:002011-11-02T09:41:59.807-07:00A disorderly default would almost certainly trigge...A disorderly default would almost certainly trigger CDS payouts. But according to DTCC, the net notional amount of Greek govt. CDS is only $3.7 billion. Gross notional amount is $74 billion. In other words, the payouts would represent only a fraction of the $400 billion outstanding Greek debt.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39279174333576323282011-11-02T09:30:56.734-07:002011-11-02T09:30:56.734-07:00Wouldn't a disorderly default in Greece (more ...Wouldn't a disorderly default in Greece (more likely now that a referendum vote is needed to support the EU plan) trigger the CDS constracts and make a whole lot of money for those going short on Greek debt?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42074651568314031202011-11-02T09:28:24.441-07:002011-11-02T09:28:24.441-07:00DTCC is a pretty good source of information on CDS...DTCC is a pretty good source of information on CDS. Check this out:<br /><br />http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data/index.phpScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13810115910977925732011-11-02T09:09:54.513-07:002011-11-02T09:09:54.513-07:00The transparency on CDS swaps is awful. There is ...The transparency on CDS swaps is awful. There is no public exchange<br />nor is the data available for public consumption. We have no idea<br />as to the volumes no wonder it is subject to rumors and innuendo.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25276541050925470032011-11-02T08:53:50.581-07:002011-11-02T08:53:50.581-07:00I think the big issue with CDS is that the Greek d...I think the big issue with CDS is that the Greek debt haircut that is being forced on the private banks is not considered to be a default, so the CDS contracts are not being triggered. This effectively renders the CDS contract useless as a hedging vehicle. So interest in the contract will decline sharply, thus reducing liquidity in the sovereign debt market. Less liquidity, fewer players, and Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87159618563844107952011-11-02T08:36:50.471-07:002011-11-02T08:36:50.471-07:00Scott,
I just read an article about the fears ove...Scott,<br /><br />I just read an article about the fears over credit default swaps and why that fear is driving the big market swings over the Euro debt crisis. The article suggests that no one really understands if it is a problem or not. The bailout of AIG suggests it is. Can you comment on this?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com